Comments on: Cambridge

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 22:31:48 +0000

I think something like

Lab 36%
LD 31%
Con 19%
Grn 10%
Oth 4%

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 22:11:58 +0000

Perhaps so.
But the Tories polled 26% last time, against a much stronger LD party.

Even so, I’ve had trouble making it add up so would knock a bit off them.

By: Edward Carlsson Browne

Edward Carlsson Browne — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 20:39:08 +0000

27% is distinctly unlikely for the Tories. There are only three wards in the city where they can reliably garner that much of the vote and 2010 was a perfect storm for them – a strong candidate, Labour distinctly unpopular and there being little need to vote tactically for the Lib Dems.

The Tories just don’t have the resources to run the sort of campaign they’d need to to get that amount under the circumstances we’re likely to see in 2015, especially since demographics get worse for them year on year. Maybe if they did keep working it it could work out as Joe says, but that just won’t happen in most wards.

I’d expect them a bit below 20%, because the Libs are good at squeezing their vote.

The local Green vote last time went overwhelmingly for Huppert and this was perhaps not accidental. Whether such a thing will happen next time is questionable but whether it will mostly break for Labour or just stay Green is beyond my ken.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Sat, 31 Dec 2011 13:10:38 +0000

Cambridge is one of those places where Cameron hugging a husky most likely significantly increased the Tory vote.

I do not agree that the Tory vote will be unsqueezed here. I think we’re likely to see a situation similar to the Oldham by-election, with the Lib Dems losing votes to Labour but borrowing votes from the Conservatives. Given that they are 7000 votes behind it will not be easy for Labour to win back, although possible.

By: akmd

akmd — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 22:26:33 +0000

There are no changes proposed for the constituency so I also expect a close Labour/LD contest with the Tories perhaps a bit higher than 2010. After some uncertainty, I do think this will be a narrow Labour gain now. Huppert is one of the better LDs and certainly the best of the 2010 intake but he’s not a particularly strong incumbent so I can see him just losing next time.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 22:25:44 +0000

Yes, about that.
The LDs could hold on though – perhaps it’s marginally less likely though.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 22:19:31 +0000

Labour polled around 36% at the local elections so depending on how the green vote breaks in a GE they could win the seat with around 35%.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 22:03:27 +0000

Doesn’t quite add up as I expected –
I basically think Lab and LD a bit further ahead than
this
but I’m pretty sure the Tory vote will not go away either.

Lab 31%
LD 30%

Con 27%
Green 8%
UKIP 3%
Oths 1%

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 21:58:38 +0000

I find this a difficult seat to predict.
It is quite true that Labour falling behind the Tories was something of an accident – although it was a real swing – not an inadvertent one.

I think the increase in Tory support was something of a revert to type with the kind of core vote one would expect, and now it’s there, they could increase it a bit more.

Quite likely a very close result between LD and Labour but with the Tories un-squeezed – up a bit more.

Depends on the boundary changes referred to though, or the situation nearer the time.

By: akmd

akmd — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 21:52:24 +0000

By Labour I would imagine. Tories were exceptionally lucky to finish just ahead of Labour in last year’s GE. They will not be so lucky next time. Like Oxford, Cambridge has been trending leftwards for quite some time now (Labour gained it in 1992 after all despite Kinnock still in place as leader) and I can’t see the Tories ever being in contention for this seat. But since they dominate the rest of Cambridgeshire, I don’t think they mind too much.