Cambridge
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 20299 (43.4%)
Labour: 15240 (32.6%)
Conservative: 8565 (18.3%)
Other: 2676 (5.7%)
Majority: 5058 (10.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7193 (16.5%)
Labour: 14813 (34%)
Liberal Democrat: 19152 (44%)
Green: 1245 (2.9%)
UKIP: 569 (1.3%)
Other: 597 (1.4%)
Majority: 4339 (10%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9829 (22.9%)
Labour: 19316 (45.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 10737 (25.1%)
UKIP: 532 (1.2%)
Green: 1413 (3.3%)
Other: 1009 (2.4%)
Majority: 8579 (20%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13299 (25.9%)
Labour: 27436 (53.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 8287 (16.1%)
Referendum: 1262 (2.5%)
Other: 1055 (2.1%)
Majority: 14137 (27.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: David Howarth(Liberal Democrat) Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Nick Hillman (Conservative) Former teacher, now Chief of Staff to David Willetts.
Daniel Zeichner (Labour) Educated at Trinity SChool Croydon and Cambridge University. South Norfolk councillor 1995-2003. Policy and Campaigns Officer for UNISON Labour-Link and member of Labour’s National Policy Forum. Contested Mid Norfolk in 1997, 2001 & 2005.
Julian Huppert (Liberal Democrat) Research scientist. Former Cambridgeshire councillor 2001-2009. Contested Huntingdon 2005.Tony Juniper (Green) born 1960, Oxford. Educated at Oxford School and Bristol University. Environmental campaigner and commentator. Former executive director of Friends of the Earth, Special Adviser to the Prince of Wales` Rainforest Project and a Senior Associate with the Cambridge University Program for Industry.Peter Burkinshaw (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100785
Male: 50.2%
Female: 49.8%
Under 18: 16.4%
Over 60: 16.5%
Born outside UK: 19.2%
White: 89.5%
Black: 1.4%
Asian: 3.7%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 3.5%
Christian: 57.1%
Hindu: 1.1%
Jewish: 0.8%
Muslim: 2.4%
Full time students: 24.1%
Graduates 16-74: 40.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 16.3%
Owner-Occupied: 52%
Social Housing: 24.3% (Council: 18.1%, Housing Ass.: 6.2%)
Privately Rented: 17.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.1%
@ James Youd ‘Unscientific is perhaps an understatement. It was done as an online questionnaire anyone could fill it in and you can of course remove cookies and fill it in more than once from the same IP address. VEry unscientific.’
You mean as unscientific as the poll of 600 people done straight after a whole constituency Green leaflet drop, which showed them ‘winning’ Brighton Pavilion, but was superseded by a poll a month or so later, showing Lab and Con, neck and neck? And was also not very scientific, I understand.
Niklas,
I have been trying to get to the bottom of the UNITE poll. I understand it was conducted by OnePoll, who claim to abide by the MRS code, and thus are obliged according to that code (rule B50) “to make available to anyone the technical information necessary to assess the validity of any published findings from a research project.” But they haven’t made the technical information available yet.
While you are right that weighting by past vote is obviously impossible with students, it isn’t a show-stopper. If you read the FAQ on weighting you will see that YouGov, for example use “which party, if any, do you most identify with?” to weight.
Edward:
I wasn’t really paying attention, but on the BBC regional news after news at 10, there was an example of a former down the line Labour supporter who now looks likely to vote Green: Ken Livingstone, saying essentially it was only because of Labour Party rules that he wasn’t giving a formal endorsement to Tony Juniper.
Wolf: you are right that the most recent ‘poll’ in Brighton wasn’t up to par: it didn’t exclude those that said they defiinitely wouldn’t vote! What meaning can you get from a poll of voting intention that includes those who won’t vote? By contrast, the previous poll was, apart from a slightly smaller sample (and so a slightly, but not particularly significantly, larger margin for error) conducted to the most rigourous standards by the utterly mainstream, established, reputable pollsters ICM . I am worried, Wolf, that you may be libelling ICM by claiming that poll was ‘unscientific’. Our host here has said “With contrasting figures, I would put my faith in ICM rather than Kindle.” He is willing to put his faith in the the poll of 600 people, which has not been “superseded” in his mind, it seems (read /blog/archives/2461).