Cambridge
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 20299 (43.4%)
Labour: 15240 (32.6%)
Conservative: 8565 (18.3%)
Other: 2676 (5.7%)
Majority: 5058 (10.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7193 (16.5%)
Labour: 14813 (34%)
Liberal Democrat: 19152 (44%)
Green: 1245 (2.9%)
UKIP: 569 (1.3%)
Other: 597 (1.4%)
Majority: 4339 (10%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9829 (22.9%)
Labour: 19316 (45.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 10737 (25.1%)
UKIP: 532 (1.2%)
Green: 1413 (3.3%)
Other: 1009 (2.4%)
Majority: 8579 (20%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13299 (25.9%)
Labour: 27436 (53.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 8287 (16.1%)
Referendum: 1262 (2.5%)
Other: 1055 (2.1%)
Majority: 14137 (27.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: David Howarth(Lib Dem) Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Nick Hillman (Conservative) Former teacher, now Chief of Staff to David Willetts.
Daniel Zeichner (Labour) Educated at Trinity SChool Croydon and Cambridge University. South Norfolk councillor 1995-2003. Policy and Campaigns Officer for UNISON Labour-Link and member of Labour’s National Policy Forum. Contested Mid Norfolk in 1997, 2001 & 2005.
Julian Huppert (Liberal Democrat) Research scientist. Former Cambridgeshire councillor 2001-2009. Contested Huntingdon 2005.Tony Juniper (Green) born 1960, Oxford. Educated at Oxford School and Bristol University. Environmental campaigner and commentator. Former executive director of Friends of the Earth, Special Adviser to the Prince of Wales` Rainforest Project and a Senior Associate with the Cambridge University Program for Industry.Peter Burkinshaw (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100785
Male: 50.2%
Female: 49.8%
Under 18: 16.4%
Over 60: 16.5%
Born outside UK: 19.2%
White: 89.5%
Black: 1.4%
Asian: 3.7%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 3.5%
Christian: 57.1%
Hindu: 1.1%
Jewish: 0.8%
Muslim: 2.4%
Full time students: 24.1%
Graduates 16-74: 40.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 16.3%
Owner-Occupied: 52%
Social Housing: 24.3% (Council: 18.1%, Housing Ass.: 6.2%)
Privately Rented: 17.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.1%
I prefer donuts to sandwiches even though they usually help the left which I don’t currently support.
My prediction would be very similar to Pete’s, something like this:
LD 40%
Lab 26%
Con 23%
Grn 8%
Oth 3%
@H.Hemmelig: I take your points, except this:
“Many British students are not registered to vote”
Indeed, but all Cambridge University students are registered to vote by their colleges. Many universities are remiss at doing this (even though it is their responsibility if students are living in halls of residence), which is inexcusable.
Students are important here. They played a large factor in the swing against Anne Campbell, for example. They’re hard to canvass and generally not very well informed (or they’d have known Anne helped to lead the top up fees revolt) but a fair amount of them do vote. Not as many as in the general population, of course, but more than at most other unis.
I don’t know about Anglia Ruskin. I suspect they’re a key component of the Lib Dem’s strength in Romsey, but that’s not the bit of the city I know best.
As for the Tories, I just don’t see them as a threat. They could be – a good proportion of the Lib Dem vote is Tories who switched when the Conservatives gave up here – but they just don’t have any local organisation. I’d expect their vote to go up by considerably less than the average in Lib Dem-Labour contests, and I think the Greens will gain much more than them.
The Lib Dems are favoured, but an economy-led Labour recovery puts this one seriously in play. If Huppert runs a bad campaign or if the polling situation improves, it’ll come down to turnout – Cambridge has a fair few rock-solid Labour estates, it’s just that we got out of the habit of canvassing them and are having to catch up now, but those estates have a terrible turnout – and the question of whether Juniper attracts more Labour or Lib Dem supporters.
If I had to guess the polling today, I’d say:
LD: 37
Labour: 31
Conservatives: 19
Greens: 13
Edward, I think you’ll find Anne Campbell abstained on the crucial fees vote.
So she did. My apologies – I didn’t live in the constituency at the time and was only going on what I understoof to be the situation from talking to others closer to the events.
I have to say that I’m not sure a Cambridge donut would necessarily kill Labour off here. It’d depend on the division.
The clearest division in the city is the river Cam. Six wards are largely north and west of it (although Newnham and Castle both extend beyond it), whilst eight wards are south. If adjacent areas from south Cambridgeshire were taken, that might put Labour out of contention. The problem there would be that there isn’t that much of South Cambs which is north of the city, and there’s little logic in heading further west than Cambourne.
Even with that division, Labour might be able to win in good years in Cambridge South. All but one of our councillors are in the other eight wards and with the likely disintegration of the Green vote in Abbey once it’s paired with nowhere territory for them, we’d probably pick up our strength back there. Meanwhile the Lib Dems would lose some of their best wards and we’d certainly be very close for second place, even in bad years.
Granted, the Tories would be favoured there, as alongside their rural base they’d have their only two good wards, Cherry Hinton and Coleridge, and two more where they ought to be competitive, Trumpington and Queen Ediths.
On the other hand, a more plausible division might instead involve a three-way split, with South-East Cambridgeshire also participating. And on such a split, Labour would be favoured in a putative Cambridge East, be obliterated in Cambridge North-West and probably finish a fairly distant third in Cambridge South-West .
Nigel Harris is set to stand here for….erm……”World – Seeks Worldwide Online Participatory Democracy”
While we’re on the subject of the (ahem!) less serious contenders, a self-described King of All Witches called Magus Lynius Shadee is planning to stand: http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/cn_news_cambridge/displayarticle.asp?id=476273
There is a good article with biographies and political standpoints of the main candidates here: http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/cn_news_home/displayarticle.asp?id=479009
Sadly Magus Lynius Shadee appears to be French, so unless he has British (Irish, Commonwealth, etc) citizenship we will denied the pleasure of his candidacy.
Another candidate selected here – Tom Woodcock of TUSC