Cambridge
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 20299 (43.4%)
Labour: 15240 (32.6%)
Conservative: 8565 (18.3%)
Other: 2676 (5.7%)
Majority: 5058 (10.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7193 (16.5%)
Labour: 14813 (34%)
Liberal Democrat: 19152 (44%)
Green: 1245 (2.9%)
UKIP: 569 (1.3%)
Other: 597 (1.4%)
Majority: 4339 (10%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9829 (22.9%)
Labour: 19316 (45.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 10737 (25.1%)
UKIP: 532 (1.2%)
Green: 1413 (3.3%)
Other: 1009 (2.4%)
Majority: 8579 (20%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13299 (25.9%)
Labour: 27436 (53.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 8287 (16.1%)
Referendum: 1262 (2.5%)
Other: 1055 (2.1%)
Majority: 14137 (27.5%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: David Howarth (Lib Dem) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Daniel Zeichner (Labour) Educated at Trinity SChool Croydon and Cambridge University. South Norfolk councillor 1995-2003. Policy and Campaigns Officer for UNISON Labour-Link and member of Labour’s National Policy Forum. Contested Mid Norfolk in 1997, 2001 & 2005.
Richard Normington (Conservative) Former Director of the International Democrat Union and head of the Conservative party’s international office. Contested West Midlands in 1999 European elecitions, Eastern region 2004 European elections.
Tony Juniper (Green) born 1960, Oxford. Educated at Oxford School and Bristol University. Environmental campaigner and commentator. Former executive director of Friends of the Earth, Special Adviser to the Prince of Wales’ Rainforest Project and a Senior Associate with the Cambridge University Program for Industry.
Peter Burkinshaw (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100785
Male: 50.2%
Female: 49.8%
Under 18: 16.4%
Over 60: 16.5%
Born outside UK: 19.2%
White: 89.5%
Black: 1.4%
Asian: 3.7%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 3.5%
Christian: 57.1%
Hindu: 1.1%
Jewish: 0.8%
Muslim: 2.4%
Full time students: 24.1%
Graduates 16-74: 40.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 16.3%
Owner-Occupied: 52%
Social Housing: 24.3% (Council: 18.1%, Housing Ass.: 6.2%)
Privately Rented: 17.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.1%
I agree that Libdems will probably win here, James, but not by more than 1-2,000. Labour have come unstuck following Anne Cambell’s defeat in 2005 which at the time was a shock :- The result of student’s mobilisation over the issue of student fees and a protest vote following the Iraq invasion by Labour supporters . Some will return to support ‘out of town’ Zeichner but perhaps not enough . The students vote is always tough to predict , so, this could be closer than the bookies suggest.
Re. Mr Stansfield: “Incidentally, when did the Liberals/Lib Dems, or indeed Labour, last have a Cambridge educated leader?”
The Lib Dems do now - Nick Clegg studied Archaeology and Anthropology at Robinson College, Cambridge. Vince Cable (who was stand-in leader during the leadership contest) studied at Fitzwilliam College.
Labour’s chances of winning Cambridge over Libdems have improved according to some bookies.
Can anyone explain that.?
Equally Labour’s slump nstionally is not reflected in Libdems odds in; Oxford East, Islington & Finsbury, or Durham [Lab v Lib.D seats]
Curious?
Yes…..the LD’s held 1992 LD/ Tory marginals with ease and gained sate Tory seats in 1997, while the lost all their LD/ Lab 1992 marginals.
This does not make sense. I expect major LD loses to the Tories ofset by a significant number of LD gains from Labour. I expect Oxford East and Islington & Finsbury to be easy LD pickings, and only question seats like Edinburgh South and Watford where the Tories are in a very good third place.
I think the LDs could end up gaining no seats atall, but there may be a few if it degenerates into a bad swing against the government everywhere.
But I suspect there are some abstainers and LD voters from 2005 who are basically Labour and will feel the need to prevent a Tory government. So on balance, that would imply 3 or 4 Labour gains from the LDs, rather than the reverse.
Watford could be an exception because it seems to be a seat where both main parties have managed to make an exceptional muck up, which has affected their performance. I’d say that one is too tight three way to call.
The Lib Dems seem to have avoided most of the scandal involving expenses: Won’t that help them nationally?
“So on balance, that would imply 3 or 4 Labour gains from the LDs, rather than the reverse.”
I don’t see the Lib Dems losing any seats to Labour, there only problem in target Labour seats will be places where the Conservative vote is also high (and could come through the middle, like Watford, and Edinburgh S …and possibly even Aberdeen S).
The most likely Labour gain is Bethnal Green, followed by Dunfermline & West Fife and then Glasgow East.
In 1983 Labour ‘gained’ some seats which had incumbant Labour MPs but now had notional 1979 Tory majorities -
Birmingham Erdington
Crewe & Nantwich
Glasgow Cathcart
And also a notionally Tory seat affected by massive demographic change -
Liverpool Broad Green
I have considered if inverted swings could occur in some seats in the 2010 election but believe that the swing against Labour to be too great that it will only manifest as relative swings to Labour. This means that when the Conservative majorities only marginally increased in Edinburgh in 1979 (and in two cases fell), this was actually a significant relative swing to Labour.
Conservative majorities in Edinburgh
1974 (Oct) 1979
North 4391 4397
South 3226 2460
Pentlands 1257 1198
West 5202 7351
So it is possible that there may be significant relative swings to Labour in some seats, masked by a large swing nationally to the Tories.
By election result - Trumpington:
Cambridge City, Trumpington
LD Andy Blackhurst 858 (51.4; +5.9), Con 618 (37.0; +1.3), Lab 109 (6.5;
-2.6), Green 85 (5.1; -4.6).
Swing: 2.3% Tory to Lib Dem
Hat tip to Lib Dem Voice.
The byelection mentioned above took place in November 2006. I’m not sure the reason for mentioning it now
LAbour came 4th across Cambridge in the Euro result here. The Greens are very close to second place when you remove the Queen Edith’s result.
Lib-Dem 8447
Con 6156
Green 5730
Labour 5146
Cambridge City result.
Rough tally of Queen Ediths result
Lib-Dem 787
Conservative 632
Green 430
Labour 249