Camborne and Redruth
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18850 (37.1%)
Labour: 14731 (29%)
Conservative: 13008 (25.6%)
Other: 4157 (8.2%)
Majority: 4119 (8.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12644 (26.3%)
Labour: 14861 (31%)
Liberal Democrat: 16747 (34.9%)
UKIP: 1820 (3.8%)
Other: 1943 (4%)
Majority: 1886 (3.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14005 (29.9%)
Labour: 18532 (39.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 11453 (24.5%)
UKIP: 1328 (2.8%)
Other: 1502 (3.2%)
Majority: 4527 (9.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15463 (28.8%)
Labour: 18151 (33.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 13512 (25.2%)
Referendum: 3534 (6.6%)
Other: 2972 (5.5%)
Majority: 2688 (5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Julia Goldsworthy(Liberal Democrat) born 1978, Camborne. Educated at Truro school and Cambridge University. Former researcher to Matthew Taylor and regeneration officer at Carrick district council. First elected as MP for Falmouth and Camborne in 2005. Health spokesman from 2005-2006, Lib Dem shadow chief secretary to the treasury 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow secretary of state for communities since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
George Eustice (Conservative) Former Strawberry farmer, former director of the No campaign against the Euro, former press secretary to Michael Howard and David Cameron. Now co-ordinator of external relations at CCHQ. Contested South West region for UKIP in 1999.
Jude Robinson (Labour) former agent and constituency assistant to Candy Atherton. Former Carrick councillor.Julia Goldsworthy(Liberal Democrat) born 1978, Camborne. Educated at Truro school and Cambridge University. Former researcher to Matthew Taylor and regeneration officer at Carrick district council. First elected as MP for Falmouth and Camborne in 2005. Health spokesman from 2005-2006, Lib Dem shadow chief secretary to the treasury 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow secretary of state for communities since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Euan McPhee (Green) Born 1946, Edinburgh. Educated at Bushey Grammar School, Hatfield Polytechnic and University of Alberta. Biology lecturer and smallholder. Contested London South East 1989 European elections.
Derek Elliot (UKIP)
Loveday Jenkin (Mebyon Kernow) Lecturer. Kerrier councillor since 1996.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 78925
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 21.3%
Over 60: 25.1%
Born outside UK: 2.9%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 72.8%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74%
Social Housing: 11.7% (Council: 3.7%, Housing Ass.: 8%)
Privately Rented: 11%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 18.4%
The polls in the last week show that the conservatives have only a 6% ipsi/mori and a 10% yougov Lead over Labour. This is not strong enough for the Conservatives to win an overall majority. A hung Parliament is now most likely.
These Polls do not however give strenght to the conservatives in the Cornish Marginals. There is a clear resurgence in the LD fortunes throughout the SW.
The unpopularity of New Labour should result in the LD in this seat receiving a good proportion of the Labour protest vote. As this seat is a 3 way marginal the declining national conservative Mood should ensure that Julia Goldsworthy will receive a huge transferable labour vote ( 14700 labour votes are in the offing ) and regain this seat with an enlarged majority.
Ladbrokes:
Liberal Democrats 2/5
Conservatives 7/4
Labour 33/1
UKIP 100/1
Mebyon Kernow 100/
Not generous at all. What price Denman for the Gold Cup instead?
Recent Polls show a narrowing in the Tory lead to 9%. This is Hung Parliament territory. In fact in 1997 the LD national poll showed an average of only 12%– today that level is at 18-21%. In Cornwall that manifests itself today into a level of 34-40% – a winning level.
The conservatives in this seat are not benefiting from the Cornish organisation. They seem to want to go it alone. An example of this is the recent visit by David Willitts, MP Shadow Minister for Universities. The event was organised by the Cornwall Agent who ensured the major press comment went to the neighbouring association of Truro, at the expense of Camborne and Redruth. Ref pictures http://www.cornwallconservatives.com
14/12/2009. To win everbody must be singing the same song. There is also the danger to the conservatives in this three way marginal that Labour votes are more transferable to the LD than to the conservatives.
The current Yougov Poll has only a narrow lead of 8% for the conservatives– too narrow to win this seat from Julia Goldsworthy.
George Eustice is a likeable chap. A local in some respect just as Julia Goldsworthy is. He has the ear of David Cameron, plenty tory money, and has the elite services of a seasoned veteran ex conservative Agent- John Heard.
His latest slogans on http://www.cornwallconservatives.com are “lets unite and deliver change— One and All—- and it is the spirit of unity that we need now”
These slogans are very potent as One and All resulted in Cornwalls Trelawny getting slaugtered by the Kings Men.
Today Conservative Unity is a big problem,- from Truro, Penryn, Falmouth, Redruth, Camborne, to Hayle and needs adressing quickly if any of the Tory PPCs are to have a chance.
Ladbrokes latest Odds are:
Liberal Democrats 1;40
Conservatives 2;75
Labour 34;00
Labour look as though they are well and truly out of it in this marginal seat, with the potential of their vote transferring en-masse to the Liberal Democrats.
The great debate between the 3 Party leaders seems to have gone very quiet.
If it does go ahead, Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats will benefit most from the exposure on TV.
TV debates which involve the Liberal Democrats is not helpful to the conservative cause in Tory/Lib Dem Marginals such as this.
Todays Sunday Times/YouGov Poll puts the tory lead down to 6% and according to politicsHome.com David Camerons personal lead over Gordon Brown has halved in six months. The statistics are mind blowing. Brown has moved from catastrophic to very bad whilst Cameron has fallen from unfeasibly popular to mildly popular.
This narrowing in polls and opinion is good news for Julia Goldsworthy LD.
To win against Goldsworthy the opposing candidates have to be convincing leaders. George Eustice has held a few canvass meetings recently in the rock solid blue enclaves in this constituency and has managed just a few followers with one meeting cancelled. To win he needs at least 50 at the meetings. The lack of substance and policy is the second problem with the tories if they wish to brake the Lib Dem stronghold.
The third problem is former tories briefing against the conservative cause. There are three main groups- the hundreds who left during the 2005 troubles, the followers of the former ppc, John Woodward and those died in the wool cornish tories who just do not like Camerons new tories. The fourth issue facing the tories is that the tory led Unitary Authority is not going well for them. The fear of 3500 redundancies is worrying voters.
In an article in today’s “Times” about Tory/LibDem marginals in the South West, the Tories are quoted as 7-4 against holding this seat. However, given the suggested results elsewhere, it could be close. At the moment, it looks as though the LibDems need a majority of 5,000 in a South West seat to be comfortable.
Perhaps the LibDems may be save here by the large Labour vote, in a seat which Labour held until 2005 but appear unlikely to regain. As the General Election appears to be shaping up as a fairly even contest between a small Tory overall majority and a “hung” parliament there may be a powerful incentive for former Labour voters to switch. And detailed analysis of Labour loses in 1979/1983/1987 showed that when Labour lose a seat to the Tories in an area where the LibDems have hopes, many Labour votes do switch to the LibDems are the subsequent election.
Nigel Farage, Leader of UKIP in the EU Parliament, has excited a good element of the electorate in this seat, with his planned outburst on the EU President. He is a “real leader” and will “boost UKIPs” share of the vote, are some of the comments I have heard in the Pub. He does have a good chance in winning Buckingham, which would be a major upset of the Status Quo.
This seat has a history of UKIP politics when in 2004 a number of top tories were unceremoniously kangarooed out of the Party for looking at UKIP videos.
Hundreds followed them, and nothing was ever proved. It cost the conservatives dearly in activist support. But and this is a big But — many supported the Independent Cause since then, but are now thinking of supporting UKIP. Of course UKIP will get support from all political wings, but mainly from the Conservative wing.
The Tory PPC and his family have a track record of membership of UKIP, but approaches of an alliance with UKIP have been unsuccessful. UKIP wish to follow their own agenda, and the enthusiasm of PPC Derek Elliot and Harry Blakeley in neighbouring Falmouth is exciting voters even more.
My guess is that UKIP will pull 4500 votes at the next GE.
Can’t say I’ve noticed much of that feverish excitement for UKIP. UKIP’s Harry Blakeley was recently exposed in the local press for using a Hayle TC email address for racist and anti-Islamic ‘jokes’ warning about the imminent imposition of Sharia law in Hayle. See the excellent blog on Cornish politics at http://cornishzetetics.blogspot.com/2010/02/election-fever-mounts.html
On the other hand Elliott has been a keen and respected campaigner against ridiculous housing plans for the district. On which note another candiate has popped up – Graham Hart is intending to stand here as an Independent opposing the housing and the ethnocide of the Cornish. Which makes at least 5 candidates out of 6 opposing these plans.
Today has seen an increase in the conservative lead to 5% and 7%. Current reasons for this floundering margin of headway for the conservatives Nationally is a bemusement and non- understanding and unwillingness to understand conservative policies by the electorate.
For instance we hear that the Tories want Change – the problem is that the bulk of the electorate dont want change- they are happy how things are. The conservatives want to make Britain Family Friendly – the problem is that the bulk of the electorate live on their own for a variety of reasons. The conservatives say they are backing the NHS – but the electorate believe that there is nothing wrong with the NHS, and that it just needs more taxpayers money. The conservatives are planning Tax breaks on Marriage – but seem unable to define what marriage means – and anyway the bulk of the electorate are no longer married in the traditional sense. The conservatives are going to make tax cuts – but the bulk of the electorate do not pay income tax or other direct taxes and are happy paying the indirect taxes. The conservatives are planning cuts in government expenditure – but the electorate sees their jobs being axed. The conservatives are planning a review of the benefits system to get Britain working- but the electorate likes the benefits and is generally happy not to be working. The conservatives say they are going to change Politics – but the electorate is happy living off the state just as much as the government and parliament is happy living off expenses. The conservatives say they are going to protect Front Line Services – but there is a large part of the electorate who are working in back line jobs and Quangoes – which are going to be axed.
This mess in the Electors atitude is creating a Merger between Delusion and Reality, and is causing a distortion of the Polls. The problem for us all is that Reality will Win.
I notice this constituency is featured in an article on the BBC’s politics pages on its website under the heading ‘Battle of Cornwall’ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8568210.stm