Camborne and Redruth
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18850 (37.1%)
Labour: 14731 (29%)
Conservative: 13008 (25.6%)
Other: 4157 (8.2%)
Majority: 4119 (8.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12644 (26.3%)
Labour: 14861 (31%)
Liberal Democrat: 16747 (34.9%)
UKIP: 1820 (3.8%)
Other: 1943 (4%)
Majority: 1886 (3.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14005 (29.9%)
Labour: 18532 (39.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 11453 (24.5%)
UKIP: 1328 (2.8%)
Other: 1502 (3.2%)
Majority: 4527 (9.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15463 (28.8%)
Labour: 18151 (33.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 13512 (25.2%)
Referendum: 3534 (6.6%)
Other: 2972 (5.5%)
Majority: 2688 (5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Julia Goldsworthy(Lib Dem) born 1978, Camborne. Educated at Truro school and Cambridge University. Former researcher to Matthew Taylor and regeneration officer at Carrick district council. First elected as MP for Falmouth and Camborne in 2005. Health spokesman from 2005-2006, Lib Dem shadow chief secretary to the treasury 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow secretary of state for communities since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
George Eustice (Conservative) Former Strawberry farmer, former director of the No campaign against the Euro, former press secretary to Michael Howard and David Cameron. Now co-ordinator of external relations at CCHQ. Contested South West region for UKIP in 1999.
Jude Robinson (Labour) former agent and constituency assistant to Candy Atherton. Former Carrick councillor.
Euan McPhee (Green) Born 1946, Edinburgh. Educated at Bushey Grammar School, Hatfield Polytechnic and University of Alberta. Biology lecturer and smallholder. Contested London South East 1989 European elections.
Derek Elliott (UKIP) 
Loveday Jenkin (Mebyon Kernow) Lecturer. Kerrier councillor since 1996.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 78925
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 21.3%
Over 60: 25.1%
Born outside UK: 2.9%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 72.8%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74%
Social Housing: 11.7% (Council: 3.7%, Housing Ass.: 8%)
Privately Rented: 11%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 18.4%
The polls in the last week show that the conservatives have only a 6% ipsi/mori and a 10% yougov Lead over Labour. This is not strong enough for the Conservatives to win an overall majority. A hung Parliament is now most likely.
These Polls do not however give strenght to the conservatives in the Cornish Marginals. There is a clear resurgence in the LD fortunes throughout the SW.
The unpopularity of New Labour should result in the LD in this seat receiving a good proportion of the Labour protest vote. As this seat is a 3 way marginal the declining national conservative Mood should ensure that Julia Goldsworthy will receive a huge transferable labour vote ( 14700 labour votes are in the offing ) and regain this seat with an enlarged majority.
Ladbrokes:
Liberal Democrats 2/5
Conservatives 7/4
Labour 33/1
UKIP 100/1
Mebyon Kernow 100/
Not generous at all. What price Denman for the Gold Cup instead?
Recent Polls show a narrowing in the Tory lead to 9%. This is Hung Parliament territory. In fact in 1997 the LD national poll showed an average of only 12%– today that level is at 18-21%. In Cornwall that manifests itself today into a level of 34-40% – a winning level.
The conservatives in this seat are not benefiting from the Cornish organisation. They seem to want to go it alone. An example of this is the recent visit by David Willitts, MP Shadow Minister for Universities. The event was organised by the Cornwall Agent who ensured the major press comment went to the neighbouring association of Truro, at the expense of Camborne and Redruth. Ref pictures http://www.cornwallconservatives.com
14/12/2009. To win everbody must be singing the same song. There is also the danger to the conservatives in this three way marginal that Labour votes are more transferable to the LD than to the conservatives.
The current Yougov Poll has only a narrow lead of 8% for the conservatives– too narrow to win this seat from Julia Goldsworthy.
George Eustice is a likeable chap. A local in some respect just as Julia Goldsworthy is. He has the ear of David Cameron, plenty tory money, and has the elite services of a seasoned veteran ex conservative Agent- John Heard.
His latest slogans on http://www.cornwallconservatives.com are “lets unite and deliver change— One and All—- and it is the spirit of unity that we need now”
These slogans are very potent as One and All resulted in Cornwalls Trelawny getting slaugtered by the Kings Men.
Today Conservative Unity is a big problem,- from Truro, Penryn, Falmouth, Redruth, Camborne, to Hayle and needs adressing quickly if any of the Tory PPCs are to have a chance.
Ladbrokes latest Odds are:
Liberal Democrats 1;40
Conservatives 2;75
Labour 34;00
Labour look as though they are well and truly out of it in this marginal seat, with the potential of their vote transferring en-masse to the Liberal Democrats.