Camborne and Redruth
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15969 (37.58%)
Labour: 6945 (16.34%)
Liberal Democrat: 15903 (37.42%)
UKIP: 2152 (5.06%)
Green: 581 (1.37%)
Socialist Labour: 168 (0.4%)
Others: 775 (1.82%)
Majority: 66 (0.16%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18850 (37.1%)
Labour: 14731 (29%)
Conservative: 13008 (25.6%)
Other: 4157 (8.2%)
Majority: 4119 (8.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12644 (26.3%)
Labour: 14861 (31%)
Liberal Democrat: 16747 (34.9%)
UKIP: 1820 (3.8%)
Other: 1943 (4%)
Majority: 1886 (3.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14005 (29.9%)
Labour: 18532 (39.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 11453 (24.5%)
UKIP: 1328 (2.8%)
Other: 1502 (3.2%)
Majority: 4527 (9.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15463 (28.8%)
Labour: 18151 (33.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 13512 (25.2%)
Referendum: 3534 (6.6%)
Other: 2972 (5.5%)
Majority: 2688 (5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: George Eustice (Conservative) Former Strawberry farmer, former director of the No campaign against the Euro, former press secretary to Michael Howard and David Cameron. Now co-ordinator of external relations at CCHQ. Contested South West region for UKIP in 1999.
George Eustice (Conservative) Former Strawberry farmer, former director of the No campaign against the Euro, former press secretary to Michael Howard and David Cameron. Now co-ordinator of external relations at CCHQ. Contested South West region for UKIP in 1999.
Jude Robinson (Labour) former agent and constituency assistant to Candy Atherton. Former Carrick councillor.
Julia Goldsworthy(Liberal Democrat) born 1978, Camborne. Educated at Truro school and Cambridge University. Former researcher to Matthew Taylor and regeneration officer at Carrick district council. First elected as MP for Falmouth and Camborne in 2005. Health spokesman from 2005-2006, Lib Dem shadow chief secretary to the treasury 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow secretary of state for communities since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Euan McPhee (Green) Born 1946, Edinburgh. Educated at Bushey Grammar School, Hatfield Polytechnic and University of Alberta. Biology lecturer and smallholder. Contested London South East 1989 European elections.
Derek Elliott (UKIP) Robert Hawkins (Socialist Labour) 
Loveday Jenkin (Mebyon Kernow) Lecturer. Kerrier councillor since 1996.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 78925
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 21.3%
Over 60: 25.1%
Born outside UK: 2.9%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 72.8%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74%
Social Housing: 11.7% (Council: 3.7%, Housing Ass.: 8%)
Privately Rented: 11%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 18.4%
continuing this point,
Does anyone know what source of 2005 notional figures the BBC are using on their web-site?
Disregarding AW’s dodgy notionals
I wonder if the impressive Conservative performance here compared to the equally downmarket St Austell & Newquay could be another instance of good Conservative performance in industrial/mining areas and poor Conservative performance in tourist/DSSonsea areas.
By my calculation the LibDems only won 5 seats with a majority of under 1000:
Solihull
Mid Dorset
Wells
Norwich S
Bradford E
But were within 1000 votes of winning another 13:
Cambourne
Truro
Newton Abbott
Oxford W
Ashfield
Chesterfield
Sheffield C
Hull N
Edinburgh S
Rochdale
Oldham E
Swansea W
Hampstead
If you are going to comment on this, the CAMBORNE
site, do you think you could manage to spell Camborne correctly!? UKIP spelt Camborne with a “u” in it’s main election address which infuriated the residents many of whom switched from UKIP to Conservative. It may well be that this howler cost Julia Goldsworthy the seat as Eustice won by only 66 votes.
When the majority is as low as 66 then its likely that there were numerous factors which had they been different would have changed the result.
For example if Goldsworthy hadn’t been so generous to herself with her expenses she would have won.
It doesn’t seem though that UKIP did especially badly here.
Labour came from third place to win a number of seats in 1997. This is one of the few seats where the Tories have come from third place to win in recent times, although because of the number of seats increasing from 5 to 6 in Cornwall causing notional results to be calculated it’s impossible to say for certain whether the Tories would have been in third place in 2005.
This was one of those relatively rare scenarios where a defending candidate lost, but increased their vote share.
Taunton was an example from 2005, where Adrian Flook’s % went up but the LDs took it back. Where there other examples in 2010?
Not many this time,
but quite a lot in 1979 and 1992.
Boundary changes can adversely affect the incumbency factor, and Julia Goldsworthy is one such victim.
I wonder if Ms Goldsworthy stood here believing that it would be easy to fend of a challenge from Labour, who the notionals listed as the main competition.
I think she did believe she was in some trouble, but I don’t think many people expected Labour to be second.
Whether they challenge again at some point looks unlikely.
I found this surprising.
I expected the Tories to take more yellow seats around Somerset, but not get them in Cornwall.