Calder Valley
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18385 (38.6%)
Conservative: 17039 (35.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 9015 (18.9%)
Other: 3251 (6.8%)
Majority: 1346 (2.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 17059 (35.7%)
Labour: 18426 (38.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 9027 (18.9%)
BNP: 1887 (4%)
Green: 1371 (2.9%)
Majority: 1367 (2.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17150 (36.2%)
Labour: 20244 (42.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7596 (16%)
UKIP: 729 (1.5%)
Green: 1034 (2.2%)
Other: 672 (1.4%)
Majority: 3094 (6.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19795 (35.1%)
Labour: 26050 (46.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 8322 (14.7%)
Referendum: 1380 (2.4%)
Other: 919 (1.6%)
Majority: 6255 (11.1%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Chris McCafferty (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Stephanie Booth (Labour)
Hilary Myers (Liberal Democrat)
Craig Whittaker (Conservative)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97649
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 22.9%
Over 60: 20.6%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 97.5%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 1.4%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 71.5%
Muslim: 1.2%
Full time students: 2.4%
Graduates 16-74: 20.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.4%
Owner-Occupied: 74.8%
Social Housing: 14% (Council: 7.5%, Housing Ass.: 6.5%)
Privately Rented: 7.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 17.9%
“Calder Valley was once Sowerby and Colne Valley is largely what was once Huddersfield West (also a Liberal seat won by Labour in 1964).”
Part of Calder Valley was also in Brighouse and Spenborough constituency, which was another Conservative gain in 1979.
The Liberal victories in Huddersfield West only occurred because the Conservatives didn’t stand candidates in that constituency. If the Conservatives had wanted to they could probably have killed the Liberals off in the 1950s.
Which of Sowerby or Brighouse & Spenborough was Elland included in prior to 1983?
Pete
Not sure but the 1979 electorates were:
Brighouse & Spenborough 65415
Halifax 63768
Sowerby 49275
The 1983 electorates were:
Calder Valley 71309
Halifax 72747
Suggesting that about half of B&S ended up in Calder Valley with perhaps some of Sowerby being moved into Halifax.
So as well as Brighouse itself the ‘Brighouse’ part of B&S probably included Rastrick and Hipperholme and maybe Elland as well. Generally the better Conservative wards in Calder Valley.
I can vaguely remember Robert Waller writing in his post 1983 book that the Conservative victory in Batley & Spen was very surprising as Batley was the least Conservative half of the 1979 Batley & Morley and Spen was the least Conservative half of the 1979 Brighouse & Spenborough. I bet Waller would have been astonished to hear that Elizabeth Peacock would have held on with an increased majority in 1992.
Yes Sowerby Bridge itself was moved to Halifax. I think from thr numbers Elland must have been in Sowerby.
The Batley & Spen seat was considerably more marginal on the notional figures than the old Batley & Morley suggesting that at least Spenborough was more Tory than Morley
“suggesting that at least Spenborough was more Tory than Morley”
Definately.
Assuming the old Brighouse & Spenborough was made up of Brighouse, Rastrick and Hipperholme wards form Calderdale and Cleckheaton, Birstall and Liversedge wards from Kirklees the 2008 result would be:
Con 11262
LD 5351
Lab 3889
Oth 3745
I think the small towns that make up the area have definately demographically trended Conservative. There are very good motorway links and the area is surrounded by large towns and cities - Halifax to the W, Bradford to the N, Leeds to the NE, Batley/Dewsbury to the SE and Huddersfield to the SW. I imagine there’s been some significant middle class ‘white flight’ into this area.
I believe that HBOS will cost Labour this seat.
2010
Conservative: 18500
Labour: 17500
Liberal Democrat: 8000
Other: 3000
Majority: 1000
Peter
Is that prediction for Halifax or Calder Valley?
Because if its for Calder Valley then you can expect a Cameron resignation to follow soon after it.
Sorry Halifax.
You had me worried for a while
It’s not a bad prediction for Halifax.
Pete
If Brighouse and Spenborough had existed in 2005 would it have been won by the Conservatives? I’m sure it would have been a very close result either way.
More problems for Steph Booth;
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/Wouldbe-Labour-MP-accused-of.5231327.jp
I’m not 100% sure of the boundaries - in any case the wards in use now dont fit exactly into the old seat, but if I have the right wards something like this:
Con 18727 41.3 %
Lab 16872 37.2 %
LD 5163 11.4 %
BNP 3601 7.9 %
Oth 991 2.2 %
Thanks Pete.
Did you use the same wards as I used above?
On those numbers an existing Brighouse and Spenborough would have been the best Conservative constituency in West Yorkshire at the last election, which shows how much it has demographically trended Conservative over time.
Could you give an estimate as to which Kirklees wards were in which pre 1983 constituency? I believe Dewsbury included Ossett but did it also include Mirfield, Kirkburton and Denby Dale as it does now? Or were they part of a Huddersfield constituency?
I used the six wards you mentions plus Heckmondwyke as I think the greater part of that ward was included (though some of it was in Dewsbury).
I think Dewsbury did include Kirkburton pre-1983 but Denby Dale was certainly in the Colne Valley seat and I think Mirfield was in Huddersfield East.
I think Brighouse & Spenborogh and Sowerby were actually two of only three seats gained by the Tories in Yorkshire in 1979 - the third was Huddersfield West also in that area. All three seats were abolished with only Calder Valley being a notional Tory seat so on the face of it the boundary changes were bad news for the Tories, but they were assisted in winning the redrawn Dewsbury as well as the new Batley & Spen. Elsewhere Keighley was pushed into the Tory column which provided a haven for Gary Waller who had won Brighouse & Spenborough, but Geoffrey Dickens had to take refuge across the penines.
Thanks Pete
I expect Heckmondwyke was the most Labour part of the old Brighouse and Spenborough constituency.
The Conservatives only made 4 gains I think in Yorkshire in 1970 as well as opposed to over 30 IIRC in the Lancashire area. Oddly though 2 of the Yorkshire gains were urban, Bradford West and Sheffield Heeley whereas the Conservatives failed to gain any of the 4 Liverpool and 2 Manchester seats lost in 1964.
I think the Conservatives will make many Yorkshire gains in 2010 than they did in the 1970s.
I thought Mirfield must have been in Huddersfield East as the majority there was so low in 1979.
That B&S (even with Heckmondwyke) has swung so much to the Conservatives was interesting. It seems that constituencies demographically trending Conservatives are never mentioned as much as those city areas which have trended away from the Conservatives.
In Yorkshire virtually every constituency with a major motorway running through it has demographically moved Conservative.