Bury North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18070 (40.19%)
Labour: 15827 (35.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7645 (17%)
BNP: 1825 (4.06%)
UKIP: 1282 (2.85%)
Independent: 181 (0.4%)
Others: 131 (0.29%)
Majority: 2243 (4.99%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17114 (42.4%)
Conservative: 14878 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 6121 (15.1%)
Other: 2295 (5.7%)
Majority: 2236 (5.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16204 (36.5%)
Labour: 19130 (43%)
Liberal Democrat: 6514 (14.7%)
BNP: 1790 (4%)
UKIP: 476 (1.1%)
Other: 325 (0.7%)
Majority: 2926 (6.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16413 (36.6%)
Labour: 22945 (51.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5430 (12.1%)
Majority: 6532 (14.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20657 (37.5%)
Labour: 28523 (51.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4536 (8.2%)
Referendum: 1337 (2.4%)
Majority: 7866 (14.3%)
Boundary changes: The only significant alteration is the loss of most of Unsworth ward to Bury South.
Profile: A Conservative/Labour marginal that on paper provides the Conservatives with their best hope of a gain in Greater Manchester. The seat covers the three towns of Tottington, Ramsbottom and Bury itself. This is an area of traditional, Lancashire former mill towns that have remained comparatively affluent and reinvented themselves as a Manchester commuter belt.
Two thirds of the councillors here are now Conservative. Labour`s support is strongest in Bury itself. To the North Tottington and Ramsbottom, set in the West Pennine Moors, are more Conservative. The seat was represented by Alistair Burt, now the Tory MP for North East Bedfordshire, until it was won by Labour in the 1997 landslide.
Current MP: David Nuttall (Conservative) Educated at Aston Comprehensive, Rotherham and subsequently obtained an external law degree from London University. Solicitor and Notary Public. Contested Sheffield Hillsborough 1997, Morecambe & Lunesdale 2001 and Bury North 2005. Contested Yorkshire and Humberside Region in the 1999 European Elections.
David Nuttall (Conservative) Educated at Aston Comprehensive, Rotherham and subsequently obtained an external law degree from London University. Solicitor and Notary Public. Contested Sheffield Hillsborough 1997, Morecambe & Lunesdale 2001 and Bury North 2005. Contested Yorkshire and Humberside Region in the 1999 European Elections.
Maryam Khan (Labour) Born Manchester. Solicitor. Manchester councillor. 
Richard Baum (Liberal Democrat) born Bury. Educated at Birmingham University. NHS Manager. Bury councillor since 2007.
Stephen Evans (UKIP)John Maude (BNP) Graeme Lambert (Pirate) Bill Brison (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84261
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 23.8%
Over 60: 19.9%
Born outside UK: 5.6%
White: 92.9%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 5.5%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 78.2%
Muslim: 5.3%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.2%
Owner-Occupied: 76.9%
Social Housing: 15.2% (Council: 11.2%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 5.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.7%
The addition of Bradshaw will give David Nuttall a helping hand. He is also increasing his profile. Nevertheless he can only do so much to control his destiny in 2015.
Conservative Cllr Ian Bevan has gone Indy here, due to the Group leadership, though he continues to support the MP.
2012 Local Election results for Bury North, with change on 2011
Lab 46.5% (+1.3%)
Con 35.6% (-5.5%)
LD 3.9% (-3.7%)
Oth 14.0% (+7.9%) – Mostly UKIP on 12.5%
Labour won 6 wards – including 4 gains at Elton, Ramsbottom, Redvales and Tottington, The Conservatives won the other 2 wards at Church and North Manor
Labour wins in Tottington are pretty rare & I wonder if anyone could tell me when that last happened.
Didn’t Labour win it on the flip of a coin last year? Poor results for the Conservatives. Although we should always distinguish the local from the general, David Nuttall will clearly be very grateful for the addition of Bradshaw, which stayed firmly Conservative in the Bolton council election
Ramsbottom was the flip of a coin last year. I don’t know when Labour last won Tottington if ever. It was the only ward the Conservatives won in Bury in 1995
Tottington once had the reputation of being the home of retired colonels & other senior services officers but I don’t know how accurate that is. My father, who went to school in this constituency, is a bit sceptical about that.
There are 2 by-elections coming up next month in the borough, but as it happens they’re in the only 2 wards still won comfortably by the Conservatives in 2012, North Manor & Church. The only other one they won was Pilkington Park where they were probably saved by Michelle Wiseman’s strong personal vote.
Well-known alternative rock band Elbow hail from the town of Ramsbottom in this constituency.
Labour did pretty well here in 2010 considering the Chaytor scandel. I think Labour would have held this seat by a few hundred votes if Chaytor didn’t fiddle his expenses.
What are the chances of Labour regaing this seat in 2015?
I doubt it. Labour would have needed a 3% swing- better result than they got. Torys would probably have gained by 1 or 2% rather than 5.
Labours chance of regaining must be high, I would have thought 80% or so.
“Labour did pretty well here in 2010 considering the Chaytor scandel. I think Labour would have held this seat by a few hundred votes if Chaytor didn’t fiddle his expenses.”
Since Chaytor wasn’t standing I don’t think that follows.
It could follow that he muddied Labours good name by his actions. That might not be fair but it doubtless will have put at least a few off voting labour.
I wouldn’t rate Labour’s chances quite so highly- though the local election results since 2010 have been very encouraging. One wonders if UKIP might endorse Nuttall here given that he is a Better Off Outer. If they do, he could hold on in an even year, given the bonus of first-time incumbency. I’d rate Labour’s chances at 65%- 70% for now.