Burton
2010 Results:
Conservative: 22188 (44.53%)
Labour: 15884 (31.88%)
Liberal Democrat: 7891 (15.84%)
BNP: 2409 (4.84%)
UKIP: 1451 (2.91%)
Majority: 6304 (12.65%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18678 (42%)
Conservative: 16544 (37.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5771 (13%)
Other: 3435 (7.7%)
Majority: 2134 (4.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18280 (38.2%)
Labour: 19701 (41.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6236 (13%)
BNP: 1840 (3.8%)
UKIP: 913 (1.9%)
Other: 912 (1.9%)
Majority: 1421 (3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17934 (38.6%)
Labour: 22783 (49%)
Liberal Democrat: 4468 (9.6%)
UKIP: 984 (2.1%)
Other: 288 (0.6%)
Majority: 4849 (10.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21480 (39.4%)
Labour: 27810 (51%)
Liberal Democrat: 4617 (8.5%)
Other: 604 (1.1%)
Majority: 6330 (11.6%)
Boundary changes: small changes, loses Barton-under-Needwood to Lichfield.
Profile: A long spindly seat following the eastern edge of Staffordshire, Burton stretches from Burton-on-Trent at one end of the constituency and the nearby village of Tutbury, through Needwood Forest to Uttoxeter before stretching North to take in villages like Ellastone and Wootton at the foot of the Weaver Hills, the beginning of the Peak District. Burton itself is largely Labour, but the rural wards dilute it enough to make the seat a marginal.
Burton itself has strong associations with the brewing industry, the town has five brewers, including Marston and Coors (which produces Carling and Worthington). The town is also home to the production of Marmite and formerly of Branston pickle, though production has since moved to Suffolk. Uttoxeter to the West is a market town currently undergoing major redevelopment of the old cattle market and town centre and best known for the Uttoxeter National Hunt racecourse. The nearby village of Rocester the base of JCB, who are a major local employer.
Current MP: Andrew Griffiths (Conservative) Educated at High Arcal School, Dudley. Former manager with the Halifax, currently Chief of staff to Eric Pickles MP. Contested Dudley North in 2001. Contested West Midlands Region in 2004 European Elections.
Andrew Griffiths (Conservative) Educated at High Arcal School, Dudley. Former manager with the Halifax, currently Chief of staff to Eric Pickles MP. Contested Dudley North in 2001. Contested West Midlands Region in 2004 European Elections.Ruth Smeeth (Labour) Former public affairs manager for Nestle. Michael Rodgers (Liberal Democrat)Philip Lancaster (UKIP)Alan Hewitt (BNP) Former paratrooper.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 93426
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 24.1%
Over 60: 20.5%
Born outside UK: 4.7%
White: 93.4%
Black: 0.7%
Asian: 4.7%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 76.8%
Muslim: 4.4%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 14.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74.8%
Social Housing: 14.9% (Council: 8.6%, Housing Ass.: 6.3%)
Privately Rented: 7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.5%
Meant to say, the by-election was for Heath ward on Uttoxeter Town Council, and they held it with 64 votes.
Tim, I obviously don’t agree with you about Stone and Lichfield, but equally obviously I’m biased about that because I live in the area.
I don’t really see any reason to believe in this shift you’re talking about. The south and south west will continue to be more Tory than places like Dudley and Wolverhampton.
‘The south and south west will continue to be more Tory than places like Dudley and Wolverhampton.’
Of course it will but the point I’m making is that you wouldn’t expect it to be anything other than Tory, whereas Dudley and Wolverhampton would appear to be anything but
They seem unlikely locations for potential Tory gains
The fact that places like Litchfield and Stone are Tory, even through the nadir years of 1997 and 2001, whereas much more Tory-appearing places like Winchester, Lewes, Northavon, Cheltenham and Bath aren’t, is an indication of the point I’m making
Interestingly Lib Dem candidate Gavin Webb’s membership of the Liberal Democrats is disputed by fellow Lib Dem candidate David Jack (Stoke-on-Trent North).
Sounds like a case of will the real Lib Dem please stand up.
The BNP have picked up 13% in the Uttoxeter Town division. If they’re polling that sort of percentage in 99% white Uttoxeter they’ll probably pick up a lot more in Burton-on-Trent itself.
Labour incredibly have been reduced from controlling Staffordshire county council to having 3 councillors out of 62.
They were lucky to hold 2 of those seats. In Burton Town they won with 34% and in Burton Trent with 31%.
The other seat held by Labour was Cannock Chase – Chadsmoor which now counts as their only safe seat on Staffordshire county council.
The Lib Dem PPC, Gavin Webb (who was a bit detached from the party in the first place, having been suspended for a while and describing himself as a Liberal Democrat (Libertarian) on Stoke council) has resigned from the party to join the Libertarian Party.
This has always been a weak seat for the LDs/Liberals. Their best since 1945 was probably the 19.1% they received in 1983 when Labour were still more than 10% ahead of them. They didn’t even contest the seat in February 1974 when the Liberals polled 20% in GB. They put a candidate up in October who polled 15%. I think that was quite unusual actually – for the Liberals to contest the October election but not February. IIRC there were quite a lot of examples of the reverse happening, mainly seats where the Liberals did badly in February and didn’t want to lose their deposit again a few months later.
The Liberals contested about 100 more seats in October 1974 compared to February.
(This would have meant they contested almost every GB seat).
Their national vote per candidate was 24% in February 1974 – the highest since the early part of the century, apart from 1983.
The Liberals contested about 250 seats in 1970, and polled about 7.5% of the national vote. Adjust that for seats contested, it’s probably only about 2% below 1979.
It is odd that they couldn’t contest all seats in both 1974 elections. Maybe they just didn’t have enough money, candidates or organisation until 1979.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/gavin-webb-quits-lib-dems-joins-libertarian-party-16100.html
The BNP have selected Alan Hewitt here
February 1974 was very disappointing for the Liberals; Jeremy Thorpe was hoping to break the 2 party system. Their vote was down by 1% in October 1974.
Moving on to 2010 to this seat – a certain Tory gain!
I see Michael Rodgers is the new Lib Dem candidate for Burton. He seems much stronger than their previous choice – he was elected to East Staffordshire Borough Council for the Burton Ward in 2007, a seat formerly held by Labour. His ward covers the older central part of the town, from Wetmore, through the main shopping centre as far as the Rugby Ground. He is now the group leader for the Liberal Democrats on the Council.
Cons Gain= 3,000 maj
Here’s an opportunity to “declare” this seat, and contribute to the overall prediction for 2010
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-undermentioned-hereby-give-notice.html
CON 5500
Con Gain
Maj 2400
C gain maj 8000
Con maj 4,500
I’m sure that Michael Rodgers, an excellent Lib Dem candidate for the Burton and East Staffordshire constituency, will significantly increase the Lib Dem vote, and even more so after the recent Lib Dem surge in the polls.
Exactly what that will signify for the 2010 election result depends (of course) on just how many additional votes he attracts, and in what proportion from New Labour and the Tories and first-time voters.
What is also of great significance is that the Needwood ward (in which Barton-under-Needwood is the main settlement) with population about 5,000 has now been moved out of the Burton and East Staffs constituency.
The Needwood area is predominantly Conservative, offsetting any gains that the Tories might otherwise have expected to make from Labour.
I’m going to predict that this seat could spring a surprise and head into 3-way marginal territory, on the back of the Lib Dem vote increasing equally at the expense of both of the other two main parties.
I am so concerned about who to vote for the thought keeps me awake at night my circumstances have changed since the previous election and no party seems to give me much confidence.
CON GAIN
The Tories seem to have won a bigger majority than most expected. The swing was 8.7%.
Excellent result here- the majority is almost double compared to 1997 (7%)
We could have done with that kind of swing everywhere.
Interesting point about removal of Needwood ward, this does not seem to have been reflected in the difference between the actual and notional result in 2005. Perhaps the notional result has underestimated the impact and partly accounts for the higher than average swing.
Needwood ward only has an electorate of about 5,000 and Burton’s electorate was previously about 75,000, so I don’t think removing that ward was ever going to have a huge effect on the result.
The Tory majority in 1992 was about 10% so this seat is a bit safer now than it was then.
However, after boundary changes it was cut to 7% (this used to be on the BBC 1997 election website, which has now been removed.)
There’s a by-election on Thursday for Staffs CC, Burton Town division.
2009 result:
Lab: 1,321 (34.4%)
LD: 1,065 (27.7%)
Con: 877 (22.8%)
BNP: 581 (15.1%)
Result:
Lab: 43.7%
Con: 31.3%
LD: 18.6%
UKIP: 6.4%
Excellent result for the Tories.
Burton town has, I understand it been rock solid Labour (despite large swings to the Tories at times in the seat overall – such as recently).
Not sure I’d call it “excellent” but it’s certainly a good performance to increase the vote share appreciably and move into a clear 2nd.
I think it probably is though.
I’d have thought this CC seat covers district wards which have traditionally voted Labour by over 70%
It was indeed a superb result for the Conservatives.
It is not unusual for Labour to poll 70% in Burton town, as Joe says.
Burton was built on the brewing industry, whose owners may have traditionally been Tory donors, but the workforce was staunchly Labour.
Burton town also has a reasonably significant Asian population.
If Labour are only 10% ahead of the Tories in this part of Burton constituency they have no hope of winning it back in a general election.