Burton
2010 Results:
Conservative: 22188 (44.53%)
Labour: 15884 (31.88%)
Liberal Democrat: 7891 (15.84%)
BNP: 2409 (4.84%)
UKIP: 1451 (2.91%)
Majority: 6304 (12.65%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18678 (42%)
Conservative: 16544 (37.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5771 (13%)
Other: 3435 (7.7%)
Majority: 2134 (4.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18280 (38.2%)
Labour: 19701 (41.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6236 (13%)
BNP: 1840 (3.8%)
UKIP: 913 (1.9%)
Other: 912 (1.9%)
Majority: 1421 (3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17934 (38.6%)
Labour: 22783 (49%)
Liberal Democrat: 4468 (9.6%)
UKIP: 984 (2.1%)
Other: 288 (0.6%)
Majority: 4849 (10.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21480 (39.4%)
Labour: 27810 (51%)
Liberal Democrat: 4617 (8.5%)
Other: 604 (1.1%)
Majority: 6330 (11.6%)
Boundary changes: small changes, loses Barton-under-Needwood to Lichfield.
Profile: A long spindly seat following the eastern edge of Staffordshire, Burton stretches from Burton-on-Trent at one end of the constituency and the nearby village of Tutbury, through Needwood Forest to Uttoxeter before stretching North to take in villages like Ellastone and Wootton at the foot of the Weaver Hills, the beginning of the Peak District. Burton itself is largely Labour, but the rural wards dilute it enough to make the seat a marginal.
Burton itself has strong associations with the brewing industry, the town has five brewers, including Marston and Coors (which produces Carling and Worthington). The town is also home to the production of Marmite and formerly of Branston pickle, though production has since moved to Suffolk. Uttoxeter to the West is a market town currently undergoing major redevelopment of the old cattle market and town centre and best known for the Uttoxeter National Hunt racecourse. The nearby village of Rocester the base of JCB, who are a major local employer.
Current MP: Andrew Griffiths (Conservative) Educated at High Arcal School, Dudley. Former manager with the Halifax, currently Chief of staff to Eric Pickles MP. Contested Dudley North in 2001. Contested West Midlands Region in 2004 European Elections.
Andrew Griffiths (Conservative) Educated at High Arcal School, Dudley. Former manager with the Halifax, currently Chief of staff to Eric Pickles MP. Contested Dudley North in 2001. Contested West Midlands Region in 2004 European Elections.Ruth Smeeth (Labour) Former public affairs manager for Nestle. Michael Rodgers (Liberal Democrat)Philip Lancaster (UKIP)Alan Hewitt (BNP) Former paratrooper.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 93426
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 24.1%
Over 60: 20.5%
Born outside UK: 4.7%
White: 93.4%
Black: 0.7%
Asian: 4.7%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 76.8%
Muslim: 4.4%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 14.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.9%
Owner-Occupied: 74.8%
Social Housing: 14.9% (Council: 8.6%, Housing Ass.: 6.3%)
Privately Rented: 7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.5%
Here’s an opportunity to “declare” this seat, and contribute to the overall prediction for 2010
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-undermentioned-hereby-give-notice.html
CON 5500
Con Gain
Maj 2400
C gain maj 8000
Con maj 4,500
I’m sure that Michael Rodgers, an excellent Lib Dem candidate for the Burton and East Staffordshire constituency, will significantly increase the Lib Dem vote, and even more so after the recent Lib Dem surge in the polls.
Exactly what that will signify for the 2010 election result depends (of course) on just how many additional votes he attracts, and in what proportion from New Labour and the Tories and first-time voters.
What is also of great significance is that the Needwood ward (in which Barton-under-Needwood is the main settlement) with population about 5,000 has now been moved out of the Burton and East Staffs constituency.
The Needwood area is predominantly Conservative, offsetting any gains that the Tories might otherwise have expected to make from Labour.
I’m going to predict that this seat could spring a surprise and head into 3-way marginal territory, on the back of the Lib Dem vote increasing equally at the expense of both of the other two main parties.
I am so concerned about who to vote for the thought keeps me awake at night my circumstances have changed since the previous election and no party seems to give me much confidence.
CON GAIN
The Tories seem to have won a bigger majority than most expected. The swing was 8.7%.
Excellent result here- the majority is almost double compared to 1997 (7%)
We could have done with that kind of swing everywhere.