The UKPollingReport election guide for 2010 has now been archived and all comments will shortly be closed. The new Election Guide for the 2015 election is now online at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide. The old site is archived at the UK Web Archive.
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Burnley

2010 Results:
Conservative: 6950 (16.61%)
Labour: 13114 (31.34%)
Liberal Democrat: 14932 (35.68%)
BNP: 3747 (8.95%)
UKIP: 929 (2.22%)
Independent: 2173 (5.19%)
Majority: 1818 (4.34%)

2005 Results:
Labour: 14999 (38.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 9221 (23.7%)
Independent: 5786 (14.8%)
Conservative: 4206 (10.8%)
Other: 4771 (12.3%)
Majority: 5778 (14.8%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 7697 (20.9%)
Labour: 18195 (49.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5975 (16.2%)
UKIP: 866 (2.3%)
BNP: 4151 (11.3%)
Majority: 10498 (28.5%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 9148 (20.2%)
Labour: 26210 (57.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7877 (17.4%)
Referendum: 2010 (4.4%)
Majority: 17062 (37.7%)

No Boundary Changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Gordon Birtwistle (Liberal Democrat) born 1943. Burnley councillor. Leader of Burnley council.

2010 election candidates:
portraitRichard Ali (Conservative) Born 1967, Bolton. Educated at Bury Grammar School and Reading university. Works in food and agriculture.
portraitJulie Cooper (Labour) Runs a pharmacy business. Burnley councillor since 2005.
portraitGordon Birtwistle (Liberal Democrat) born 1943. Burnley councillor. Leader of Burnley council.
portraitJohn Wignall (UKIP)
portraitSharon Wilkinson (BNP) Born Padiham. Burnley councillor. Lancashire county councillor since 2009.
portraitAndrew Brown (Independent)
portraitAndrew Hennessey (Independent)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 89542
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 25.6%
Over 60: 19.8%
Born outside UK: 5.8%
White: 91.8%
Asian: 7.1%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 74.5%
Muslim: 6.6%
Full time students: 2.4%
Graduates 16-74: 12.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 36%
Owner-Occupied: 72.1%
Social Housing: 15% (Council: 7%, Housing Ass.: 8%)
Privately Rented: 9.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 18.3%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

267 Responses to “Burnley”

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  1. “The non-urban midlands are a bit of both. The Amber Valleys and Nuneatons will determine whether there is a continued coalition/small Tory majority or a Labour win.”

    Agreed, as in all close elections its the skilled working class and lower middle class in the unfashionable towns that will be decisive.

    I would include the northern equivalents as well – Pendle and Stalybridge, Dewsbury and Grimsby.

    It may not please the Cameroons but the sort of voters they need are not the ones they find in Notting Hill.

    I do think these constituencies are the ones most likely to benefit from economic recovery and rebalancing. Which together with the economic cycle being aligned with electoral one will help the Conservatives.

    But a very big issue in this sort of constituency is immigration. Unless the government can do something major then they will lose more support to rightist parties.

  2. Interesting looking at the results here. The LDs retained control but this year won 5 wards compared with Labour’s 8, and the Tories’ 2. The BNP didn’t even stand in some wards they’ve won in the past, including Cliviger (which was won comfortably by the Tories), and did badly in every ward except one where they were a distant second to Labour. The council is now a clear Labour target and the LDs’ majority is unlikely to survive next year’s elections; having said that, Labour should never have lost here in the first place.

  3. Whoops – I’d heard on the BBC that the LDs had held Burnley, but clearly they no longer have a majority. Labour needs 5 gains next year to take control, and there must be a good chance of that happening.

  4. Barnaby the LDs don’t have a majority in Burnley – indeed I think they had already lost it last year. They do remain the largest party, but I should think this a fairly good prospect for Labour to take back control next year (along with neighbouring Rossendale)

  5. I thought the Lib Dems had held Burnley too. I was pretty surprised by that on the night. I’m not too surprised to find that it was not true.

  6. Burnley Local Council:
    The council web site has Con = 5, Indep = 0 , Lab = 16,
    BNP = 1, and Lib Dem = 21.

    The D Teleg. for Sat 7 May reported the above results for New Council except for Lib Dem which was shown as Lib Dem = 23.

    I guess this was an error in the PA stream for the results?

  7. Sorry, my figures for Burnley Council posted above only total 43. I have miscounted Labour cllrs on web site which are 17 not 16. This is still one short. The council web site have not added in the third councillor for Hapton with Park: Joanne Greenwood.
    Full Council figures are: –
    Con = 5, Indep = 0 , Lab = 18, BNP = 1, and Lib Dem = 21.
    Still NOC. (BBC election results page for Burnley confirm this).

  8. 2011 Local Election results with change on 2010
    Lab 46.7% (+16.1%)
    LD 32.6% (-5.9%)
    Con 14.2% (-6.1%)
    BNP 5.9% (-4.7%)
    Oth 0.6% (+0.6%)

    Whilst clearly a very big shift from Lib Dem to Labour, the 5.9% fall in Lib Dem vote was much less than in other seats they hold in the north of England (fall was 11.3% in Leeds North West, 13.4% in Sheffield Hallam, 17.8% in Manchester Withington, 19.2% in Southport, 11.7% in Hazel Grove and 10.2% in Cheadle).

    Interestingly Bradford East, another lib dem gain in 2010 general election also had a smaller drop at 3.8%, though Labour also won the local vote in that seat easily as well.

  9. “Whilst clearly a very big shift from Lib Dem to Labour, the 5.9% fall in Lib Dem vote was much less than in other seats they hold in the north of England (fall was 11.3% in Leeds North West, 13.4% in Sheffield Hallam, 17.8% in Manchester Withington, 19.2% in Southport, 11.7% in Hazel Grove and 10.2% in Cheadle).

    Interestingly Bradford East, another lib dem gain in 2010 general election also had a smaller drop at 3.8%, though Labour also won the local vote in that seat easily as well.”

    Maybe we can infer from your figures that the Lib Dems have held up proportionally much better in working class northern seats like Burnley and Bradford East compared with the university/urban professional middle class seats like Sheffield Hallam, Leeds NW, Withington etc etc.

  10. “Interestingly Bradford East, another lib dem gain in 2010 general election also had a smaller drop at 3.8%,”

    I think Redcar also showed a better than average perforamance. I wonder if Chesterfield and Rochdale will be at the opposite side of the spectrum in terms of % loss

  11. ‘Maybe we can infer from your figures that the Lib Dems have held up proportionally much better in working class northern seats like Burnley and Bradford East compared with the university/urban professional middle class seats like Sheffield Hallam, Leeds NW, Withington etc etc.’

    I wonder if Tory tactical voting also plays a part as well, perhaps becuase the general election win highlighted the potential of the Lib Dems to stop a Labour victory. Con vote in 2011 was down 7% in Bradford East and 6% in Burnley. It was down only 2% in Withington and Southport, up 1% in Leeds North West, down 2.5% in Hallam and unchanged in Cheadle/Hazel Grove

  12. Even looking at how much of the 2010 % the LibDems retained in 2010 locals, the picture doesn’t change much

    Bradford East 89.72%
    Burnley 84.67%
    Cheadle 77.43%
    Hazel 77.1%
    Hallam 74.47%
    Leeds NW 73.9%
    Withington 61.96%
    Southport 61.75%
    Rochdale 52.72%

  13. 2012 Local Election Results for Burnley, with change on 2011

    Lab 52.7% (+5.9%)
    LD 33.5% (+0.9%)
    Con 5.6% (-8.5%)
    BNP 5.3% (-0.6%)
    Oth 2.9% (+2.4%)

    Labour won 11 wards, with 2 a piece for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. The sharp drop in Conservative support will have a lot to do with them standing far fewer candidates this time (4 instead of 10 last year). The BNP stood 6 candidates this year, compared to 7 in 2011.

  14. …..and one of the Conservative wins came with a majority of only 7 votes over Labour. They held Cliviger a little more easily but it was still by fewer than 100.

  15. There will be Lib Dems out there who will disagree with this, but I would have to say that Birtwistle isn’t going to hold this at the next election. He voted for Tuition Fees increases, and that won’t play well with the Burnley College attendees hoping to go to university.

  16. Last night’s by-election result from Trinity ward:
    Lab 493 (down 9% since May)
    LD 256 (down 6% since May)
    Con 96 (didn’t stand in May)
    BNP 95 (down 1% since May)
    UKIP 35 (didn’t stand in May)
    NF 26 (didn’t stand in May)
    Lab held.

  17. Prediction for 2015-
    Labour- 16, 938 (40.7%, +9.36%)
    Birtwistle (Lib Dem)- 10, 284 (24.7%, -10.98%)
    Tory- 7, 173 (17.2%, +0.59%)
    Others- 7, 129 (17.1%, +0.74%)

    Lab gain.
    Turnout- 41, 524.
    Majority- 6, 654 (16.0%)

    Swing- +10.17% From Lib Dem to Lab.

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