Buckingham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 0 (0%)
Labour: 0 (0%)
Liberal Democrat: 0 (0%)
BNP: 980 (2.03%)
UKIP: 8401 (17.38%)
Christian: 369 (0.76%)
Monster Raving Loony: 856 (1.77%)
Independent: 14762 (30.54%)
Others: 22967 (47.52%)
Majority: 8205 (13.16%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 30034 (58%)
Labour: 10374 (20%)
Liberal Democrat: 9733 (18.8%)
Other: 1606 (3.1%)
Majority: 19661 (38%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 27748 (57.4%)
Labour: 9619 (19.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9508 (19.7%)
UKIP: 1432 (3%)
Majority: 18129 (37.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 24296 (53.7%)
Labour: 10971 (24.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 9037 (20%)
UKIP: 968 (2.1%)
Majority: 13325 (29.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 24594 (49.8%)
Labour: 12208 (24.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 12175 (24.6%)
Other: 421 (0.9%)
Majority: 12386 (25.1%)
Boundary changes: Loses parts of some split wards from around the outskirts of Aylesbury: Aston Clinton, Quarrendon, Elmhurst & Waterhead and Coldharbour.
Profile: A solid Tory bulwark in north Buckinghamshire, along with Richmond (Yorks) the closest the Tories have to their equivalent of Bootle or Knowsley. In the distant past it was a Labour seat, held by Robert Maxwell, but back then it contained Milton Keynes and it bears little resemblance to the seat`s present boundaries. Today Buckingham is an almost entirely made up of the patchwork of affluent villages in the Buckinghamshire countryside, covering most of the Vale of Aylesbury besides Aylesbury itself. Buckingham itself is a small market town, home to the only private university in the UK. Other population centres include the town of Winslow and villages such as Cuddington, Haddenham, Ludgershall, Stewkley and Steeple Claydon.
In 2005 it had the highest numerical Conservative majority and the boundary changes render it even more safe.
Current MP: John Bercow (Speaker) born 1963. Educated at Finchley Manorhill School and the University of Essex. Former merchant banker and special advisor to Jonathan Aitken and Virginia Bottomley. Lambeth councillor 1986-1990. Contested Motherwell 1987, Bristol South 1992. First elected as MP for Buckingham in 1997. Conservative spokesman on education and employment 1999-2000, on home affairs from 2000-2001, Shadow Chief Secretary 2001-2002 and Shadow Secretary of state for Work and Pensions from 2002 until his resignation later the same year over gay adoption. Shadow secretary of state for international development 2003-2005. Bercow has undergone a remarkable transition across the political spectrum – as a student he was a member of the right-wing Monday club, and secretary of their immigration and repatriation section, when first elected he was a combatative right-winger, however in recent years he has mellowed, expressing more liberal and left wing views and resigning from the frontbench under IDS over the issue of gay rights. He was elected Speaker in 2009, supposedly largely on the back of support from Labour MPs
Nigel Farage (UKIP) Sitting MEP. born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009.
Lynne Mozar (BNP) David Hews (Christian Party) Colin Dale (Official Monster Raving Loony) 
Geoff Howard (Independent) Born 1947, Widnes. Former teacher. Slough Borough councillor 1995-2002 for the Labour party, Conservative party 2002-2004, for UKIP 2004-2005. Contested Slough for UKIP in 2005. Contested South-East in 2009 European elections for the Jury Team.
John Stevens (Independent) Born 1955, Washington DC. Educated at Winchester College and Oxford University. Conservative MEP for Thames Valley 1989-1999. Contested South East Region in 1999 European elections and 1999 Kensington and Chelsea by-electon for his own Pro-Euro Conservative party. He dissolved the Pro-Euro Conservative in 2001 and joined the Liberal Democrats.Patrick Phillips (Independent) Educated at Merchant Taylors School and Oxford University. Retired stockbroker.John Bercow (Speaker) born 1963. Educated at Finchley Manorhill School and the University of Essex. Former merchant banker and special advisor to Jonathan Aitken and Virginia Bottomley. Lambeth councillor 1986-1990. Contested Motherwell 1987, Bristol South 1992. First elected as MP for Buckingham in 1997. Conservative spokesman on education and employment 1999-2000, on home affairs from 2000-2001, Shadow Chief Secretary 2001-2002 and Shadow Secretary of state for Work and Pensions from 2002 until his resignation later the same year over gay adoption. Shadow secretary of state for international development 2003-2005. Bercow has undergone a remarkable transition across the political spectrum – as a student he was a member of the right-wing Monday club, and secretary of their immigration and repatriation section, when first elected he was a combatative right-winger, however in recent years he has mellowed, expressing more liberal and left wing views and resigning from the frontbench under IDS over the issue of gay rights. He was elected Speaker in 2009, supposedly largely on the back of support from Labour MPsSimon Strutt (Cut the Deficit)Debbie Martin (Independent)Anthony Watts (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 93936
Male: 49.5%
Female: 50.5%
Under 18: 23.8%
Over 60: 19.3%
Born outside UK: 6%
White: 97.7%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 0.8%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 26.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 20.7%
Owner-Occupied: 78%
Social Housing: 11.8% (Council: 10.4%, Housing Ass.: 1.4%)
Privately Rented: 6.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.1%
I agree inasmuch as there are better targets for the Tories- both in England and even in the North West. But it’s still marginal enough to target.
I see Sally Berk is at it again. Apparantly shes said that shes tempted to try the ‘legal high’ drug before it is criminalised.
I wonder if there can now be ANY prospect whatsoever of her having any form of political career now? Certainly every time she opens her mouth she releases such a string of disaster, I can’t imagine any party wanting her anywhere near them.
Those of us who like to have a go at Speaker Berk don’t even hold him responsible for her anymore. Shes just a law unto herself!
I think she is serious Shaun. The former Brighton Kemptown PPC Simon Burgess has endorsed her attempt to try and become an MP.
Depending on how the boundaries are drawn in the Brighton area she could have a chance if she managed to get nomination.
‘Depending on how the boundaries are drawn in the Brighton area she could have a chance if she managed to get nomination.’
If the current propsals are accepted, the only Brighton & Hove seat that looks safe(ish) for Labour would be the inaptly named Brighton Pavilion & Hove, which means she could be my MP after the next election
I think she’s hinder Labour’s chances in the other two seats which are marginally Conservative anyway (although I suspoect if Norman Baker stands he might have a chance of winning Lewes & Brighton East for the Lib Dems – however unlikely the Lib Dems gaining any seat looks at the moment)
Thats the key point though isn’t it *if* he got the nomination.
As I say, I can’t see why any party would want her anywhere near elected office with her unstable behaviour.
There’s been quite a large backlash against the Brighton E & Lewes seat in the boundary commision submissions so Norman Baker may be in luck but we’ll see what the commission comes up with and whether they end up keeping Brighton Kemptown similar to as it currently is.
Regarding Bercow he’ll probably remain as Speaker until 2017 when he may be forced out I’d imagine.
I believe that my own proposals would be more to the taste of the good people of Lewes
I have looked at the top UKIP results in 2010 Gen E down
to 8% share of the vote. For the 18 constituencies found I
have looked at the number of UKIP candidates standing in the
Local elections (2012) in a (?)representative Borough for
the constituency. In 2010 GE UKIP stood 558 candidates
(A total of 632 constits excluding NI).
Local UKIP No of Constit. %UKIP Rank
(2012) stand Wards (in 2010)
MKeynes 14 17 Buckingham 27.1% 1
PeterB 8 19 Cambridgeshire NW 16.1% 2
8 14 Devon East 14.3% 3
Weymouth 0 12 Christchurch 10.0% 4
10 10 Boston & Skeg 9.9% 5
no loc eles Spelthorne 9.6% 6
12 13 Chichester 9.2% 7
13 14 Surrey East 9.2% 8
no loc eles Devon North 9.1% 9
Colchester 5 20 Suffolk South 8.8% 10
no loc eles Aylesbury 8.8% 11
no loc eles Staffs Mrlds 8.5% 12
no loc eles Ribble Valley 8.5% 13
7 19 Newcastle-u-Lyme 8.4% 14
8 20 Walsall S 8.4% 15
no loc eles Surrey Heath 8.3% 16
12 21 Went’th & Dearne 8.2% 17
16 17 Thurrock 8.0% 18
(no loc eles = I haven’t found any local elections which is
included in the constituency )
Total candidates standing in 12 councils above = 113 spread
over 196 wards. ( 57.6%)
The UKIP web site shows 732 candidates standing in the locals
spread over the regions as follows.
East Midlands 16
Eastern 111
North East 14
North West 135
Scotland 38
South East 182
South West 45
Wales 12
West Midlands 77
Yorkshire 102
Grand total of UkIP candidates = 732
Overall UKIP presentation = 732 / 6038. = 12.1%
With the traction that UKIP have at the moment in the polls
it looks as though they are concentrating their fire in the
constituencies where they have their higher influence.
Which may be the statement of the blinking obvious, but
perhaps shows some planning.
BR
Sorry about the chewed up post above, looks as though the auto format on the site is taking out extra spaces. I will try next time to use tabs but I bet that will hit another problem!!
You win some, you lose some …
BR
(Re-post above: with tabs not spaces)
I have looked at the top UKIP results in 2010 Gen E down
to 8% share of the vote. For the 18 constituencies found I
have looked at the number of UKIP candidates standing in the
Local elections (2012) in a (?)representative Borough for
the constituency. In 2010 GE UKIP stood 558 candidates
(A total of 632 constits excluding NI).
Local UKIP No of Constit. %UKIP Rank
(2012) stand Wards (in 2010)
MKeynes 14 17 Buckingham 27.1% 1
PeterB 8 19 Cambridgeshire NW 16.1% 2
8 14 Devon East 14.3% 3
Weymouth 0 12 Christchurch 10.0% 4
10 10 Boston & Skeg 9.9% 5
no loc eles Spelthorne 9.6% 6
12 13 Chichester 9.2% 7
13 14 Surrey East 9.2% 8
no loc eles Devon North 9.1% 9
Colchester 5 20 Suffolk South 8.8% 10
no loc eles Aylesbury 8.8% 11
no loc eles Staffs Mrlds 8.5% 12
no loc eles Ribble Valley 8.5% 13
7 19 Newcastle-u-Lyme 8.4% 14
8 20 Walsall S 8.4% 15
no loc eles Surrey Heath 8.3% 16
12 21 Went’th & Dearne 8.2% 17
16 17 Thurrock 8.0% 18
(no loc eles = I haven’t found any local elections which is
included in the constituency )
Total candidates standing in 12 councils above = 113 spread
over 196 wards. ( 57.6%)
The UKIP web site shows 732 candidates standing in the locals
spread over the regions as follows.
East Midlands 16
Eastern 111
North East 14
North West 135
Scotland 38
South East 182
South West 45
Wales 12
West Midlands 77
Yorkshire 102
Grand total of UKIP candidates = 732
Overall UKIP presentation = 732 / 6038. = 12.1%
With the traction that UKIP have at the moment in the polls
it looks as though they are concentrating their fire in the
constituencies where they have their higher influence.
Which may be the statement of the blinking obvious, but
perhaps shows some planning.
BR
So, the site formatter rips out multiple spaces and TABS!
Blake Reynolds
Thanks for your hard work. As to your speculation about planning by UKIP, I am not so sure. In Slough this year UKIP has suddenly decided to relaunch the local organisation and contest all 14 seats up for election. They have only contested one or two seats in Slough before and none in recent cycles.
It seems to me that Slough is not the sort of area which UKIP nationally would want to target. I would have thought it far more likely that some local activists decided it was time to do something. It will be interesting to see if they will continue sustained effort after the election.
Another go at the table:-
Local____UKIP__No of_____Constit._________%UKIP_____Rank
(2012)___stand__Wards_____________________(in 2010)
MKeynes___14___17________Buckingham________27.1%_______1
PeterB______8___19________Cambridgeshire NW___16.1%______2
____________8___14________Devon East__________14.3%___ ___3
Weymouth___0___12________Christchurch_________10.0%______4
___________10___10________Boston & Skegness____9.9%_______5
no loc eles_________________Spelthorne____________9.6%______6
___________12___13________Chichester____________9.2%______7
___________13___14________Surrey East___________9.2%______8
no loc eles_________________Devon North__________9.1%______9
Colchester___5___20________Suffolk South__________8.8%_____10
no loc eles_________________Aylesbury_____________8.8%_____11
no loc eles_________________Staffs Moorlands_______8.5%_____12
no loc eles________________Ribble Valley____________8.5%____13
____________7___19_______Newcastle-u-Lyme_______8.4%____14
____________8___20_______Walsall S_______________8.4%____15
no loc eles________________Surrey Heath____________8.3%____16
___________12___21_______Went’th & Dearne________8.2%____17
___________16___17_______Thurrock_______________8.0%____18
BR
Way to go eh! At least the formatter leaves unscore alone. Makes it reasonalbly readable.
Gary J:-
I’m sure you are right. Local initiative being taken at Slough. Slough ranked 273, with 3.34% share of the vote.
Thank you for your comment.
BR
Speaker Berk strikes again. The word ‘liar’ is now officially Parliamentary language so long as its directed against Tories!
I’d started to hear people beginning to say nice things about him recently. Clearly he hasn’t changed his ways at all though.
Bercow is a wretched individual who is completely unsuitable for the role he has been given,
John Bercow’s majority may increase at the next general election.
Tories should stand against him.
Whether they’ll win it is another matter though.
By that logic surely Labour and the Lib Dems would have to stand as well.
If the Tories stood against him that would surely make it LESS likely that Labour or the LDs would also do so.
BBC reporting Speaker Berk will delay taking his pension until he is 65.
Oh god, will we have to put up with him as Speaker for THAT long?!!!
Ellesborough, home of Chequers (or at least very close to it) has been in this constituency since the last election, before that I think it was in Aylesbury all the way up to then. I think I read somewhere that Chequers used to be in Chesham and Amersham?
No it was not in Chesham & Amersham but it was in Wycombe from 1945 to 1974 and in Aylesbury both before and after that
Bercow really is awful.
If UKIP want to have another go at finishing him off, I wouldn’t really shed any tears
although raising the credibility of them could cause us other problems, so I probably would discourage it in the cold light of day.
Personally I think the Tories should just stand here and I feel very sorry for the local Tories having to put up with this sanctimonious strongly anto Con MP.
This wasn’t (and isn’t) a good choice of seat for Nigel Farage to contest because in order to win it he’d probably need at least 40%.
Somewhere like Torbay would be a better option because UKIP could possibly win it on less than 30% of the vote.
Yes that’s a good point.