Broxbourne
2010 Results:
Conservative: 26844 (58.79%)
Labour: 8040 (17.61%)
Liberal Democrat: 6107 (13.38%)
BNP: 2159 (4.73%)
UKIP: 1890 (4.14%)
English Democrat: 618 (1.35%)
Majority: 18804 (41.18%)
2005 Results:
Conservative: 21878 (53.8%)
Labour: 10369 (25.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4973 (12.2%)
Other: 3408 (8.4%)
Majority: 11509 (28.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 20487 (54.1%)
Labour: 11494 (30.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4158 (11%)
UKIP: 858 (2.3%)
BNP: 848 (2.2%)
Majority: 8993 (23.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 22952 (48.9%)
Labour: 16299 (34.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5310 (11.3%)
Referendum: 1633 (3.5%)
Other: 782 (1.7%)
Majority: 6653 (14.2%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Charles Walker(Conservative) Born 1967, Oxfordshire. Educated at the American School in London and the University of Oregon. Former Director of Blue Arrow. Wandsworth councillor 2002-2006. Contested Ealing North 2001. MP for Broxbourne since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Charles Walker(Conservative) Born 1967, Oxfordshire. Educated at the American School in London and the University of Oregon. Former Director of Blue Arrow. Wandsworth councillor 2002-2006. Contested Ealing North 2001. MP for Broxbourne since 2005 (more information at They work for you)Michael Watson (Labour) Allan Witherick (Liberal Democrat)Martin Harvey (UKIP)Steve McCole (BNP)Debbie LeMay (English Democrat) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 92244
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 22.9%
Over 60: 20.2%
Born outside UK: 7.3%
White: 96.1%
Black: 1.1%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 76.4%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1.2%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 12.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.4%
Owner-Occupied: 80.3%
Social Housing: 13.4% (Council: 11.3%, Housing Ass.: 2.1%)
Privately Rented: 4.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.2%
Pretty similar though more attractive as no oil refinery. Also BB has never come close to electing a Labour MP. It is Upper Working Class/Lower Middle Class Tory, but upscale of someweher like Gosport (or a seaside resort) as the local economy is very robust here.
As i said, it is like a Republican American suburb.
BB has absorbed people who have made good from Enfield North and Edmonton, just as Spelthorne has done similar from Heston and Hounslow and South Staffs has from Wolverhampton.
These people often rely on state education for their kids, and want them to grow up in a low-crime environment.
A lot of Herts has taken in people who used to live in neighbouring areas (now) in Greater London, and this is reflected somewhat in the make-up of the areas.
Rickmansworth, Watford and Moor Park has absorbed from Harrow; Bushey, Borehamwood and Radlett from Edgware and Stanmore; Potters Bar from Barnet and Broxborne from Enfield borough.
I get the impression that the large Cypriot community which is very prominent in the nearby London boroughs of Enfield and Haringey is starting to make a presence here too. I think though this group tend to be Labour supporting within those boroughs (though not monolithically so these days), those that have followed the ‘white flight’ parth out here are every bit as likely to be Tory voting as their ‘white British’ counterparts
There were no boundary changes this year. From 1983 to 1997 this seat also included three wards from East Hertfordshire: Stanstead Abbotts, Great Amwell and Little Amwell (now largely redrawn as Hertford Heath)
The 2010 result on those boundaries:
Broxbourne
Con 30156 59.7%
Lab 8470 16.8%
LD 6866 13.6%
BNP 2262 4.5%
UKIP 2057 4.1%
oth 667 1.3%
Con maj 21686 42.9%
The 1974-83 East Hertfordshire seat included all of Broxbourne borough together with Bishops Stortford and Sawbridgeworth and the old Ware and Braughing rural districts in East Hertfordshire district:
East Hertfordshire (1974-83)
Con 47160 57.0%
LD 16095 19.4%
Lab 12508 15.1%
UKIP 3115 3.8%
BNP 2753 3.3%
Grn 158 0.2%
oth 962 1.2%
Con maj 31065 37.6%
The 1955-74 version of that seat included all of the above plus the Ware urban district:
East Hertfordshire (1955-74)
Con 52425 56.6%
LD 19028 20.5%
Lab 13572 14.7%
UKIP 3419 3.7%
BNP 2971 3.2%
Grn 158 0.2%
oth 1062 1.1%
Con maj 33397 36.1%
This constituency can be considered in three unequal parts. About two thirds of the electorate are in the old Cheshunt Urban district which extends north as far Worlmley & Turnford, west as far as Goffs Oak and south as far as Waltham Cross. A bit under a third is in the old Hoddesdon Urban District which also includes the community of Broxbourne itself. The balance is made up by the one ward from Welwyn Hatfield borough – Northaw & Cuffley which is the most upmarket part of the constituency.
The distribution of votes in these three components in 2010 was as follows:
Cheshunt
Con 16863 57.8%
Lab 5633 19.3%
LD 3505 12.0%
BNP 1591 5.4%
UKIP 1201 4.1%
oth 400 1.4%
Hoddesdon
Con 7918 58.4%
Lab 2208 16.3%
LD 2218 16.4%
BNP 490 3.6%
UKIP 548 4.0%
oth 180 1.3%
Northaw
Con 2063 71.1%
Lab 199 6.9%
LD 384 13.2%
BNP 78 2.7%
UKIP 141 4.9%
oth 38 1.3%
Here’s the actual 1979 result for Hertfordshire East,
so comparing it to the 2010 result (reconstructed by Pete), the changes from 1979 to 2010 are
Con +1.5%
LD +4.2%
Lab -11.8%
Hertfordshire East
[E] Conservative hold
D Walker-Smith Conservative 41,599 55.50%
IJ Evans Labour 20,139 26.87%
L Abdela Liberal 11,393 15.20%
J Smith National Front 1,819 2.43%
Electorate: 96,327; Turnout: 77.81%;
Majority: 21,460 (28.63%)
Does Northaw include Cuffley?
Yes it does. The parish is called Northaw & Cuffley but the ward was called just Northaw until 2008. I am still accustomed to writing the shorter version of the name.
I remember Cuffley well.
It struck me as a mysterious sounding name.
L Abdela is Lesley Abdela, noted for campaigning for equal numbers of male & female MPs.
Charles Walker is the stepson of Christopher Chataway, Conservative MP for Lewisham North 1959-66 and Chichester 1969-74.
When I was at primary school, we were given a tour round Parliament and our guide was the newly re-elected Chris Chataway. I think he’s still just as famous for his sporting exploits, rather like Seb Coe.
Broxbourne Borough returned the second highest No to AV vote out of the 440 counting areas – 79.54%.
Just pipped by Castle Point at 79.71%.
The result from the Cheshunt Central by-election is in:
Con 742 (53.1; -14.8)
Lab 481 (34.4; +14.0)
UKIP 88 (6.3; +6.3)
Ind 62 (4.4; -7.2)
LD 24 (1.7; +1.7)
Majority 261
Turnout 24.8%
Con hold
Percentage change is since May 2011.
It’s a very big improvement in Labour’s performance in less than 2 months. All in all, though no seats were gained last night seems to have been a good night for Labour. It’s interesting that there should have been 2 big swings in safe Tory wards; though both this and Thamesfield, Putney are in the South-East, the 2 wards could barely be more contrasting in their demographics considering they’re both safe Tory wards. If Labour start to gain ground amongst white lower-middle-class voters in suburban areas as well as in the cities themselves, things will start to look better for the party. Nevertheless it’s just one night, and 3 by-elections. Labour does seem to do well when there are demonstrations, even if it seems unsupported by Labour, which still seems odd to most pundits, yet it keeps happening. No doubt next week when there aren’t demos & strikes the Tories will do better……..
‘If Labour start to gain ground amongst white lower-middle-class voters in suburban areas as well as in the cities themselves, things will start to look better for the party.’
I think Labour’s best chance of making that happen would be to seriously consider the recommendations of Maurice Glasman – although with the party elite currently staunch social liberals it seems an unlikely approach for Miliband to adopt
Pitty – as i think there are votes in it
Wikipedia has full local eelction results for Broxbourne going back to 1973. I was surprised to see that Labour used to win a number of wards here regularly. I’ve been used to them only really being able to win Waltham Cross.
“I think Labour’s best chance of making that happen would be to seriously consider the recommendations of Maurice Glasman”
I seriously doubt that.
Glasman was on the London Politics Show the other week and came across as a complete loony.
He was advocating abolishing the City of London and the 32 London boroughs and re-establishing the ancient government of London, whilst shifting around in his seat and gesticulating like a madman. Tony Travers looked like he thought he was sat next to a mental patient on a bus.
That may be right HH. However, in his favour it should be said that several decades ago he listened to my demo tape with my then band and gave it a favourable review, and gave me some useful advice about getting my band better gigs, a recording contract etc.
Sadly it didn’t happen for us despite my fantastic musicianship.
I am also disappointed – when I saw Tim had contributed to this thread, I expected to see a description of what a “dump” Cheshunt and other areas are. He signally failed to do so. Black mark, Tim.
Hi Barnaby
Sorry to hear your musical career didn’t take off. Have you considered auditioning for the X-Factor?
To be honest I think even Tim has realised that he has already made far too many repetitive posts about what a dump certain places are.
I generally dislike pointy headed academics from all parties, Glasman being no exception.
However to make you happy I am going to tell you that my favourite academic in politics is Lord Desai, who taught me economics when I was a student at LSE. He is one of the few academics who has both an endearing eccentricity and talks a lot of common sense. His article on the economy in The Guardian this week was bang on the money, and alongside Dennis Skinner he’s one of the few Labour people I’d vote for.
I hope he gets made Lord Speaker.
Well, I had a rather different career in music, having owned a music shop for 22 years. This came to an end in 2009. I am still a composer & hope to premiere a new work either late this year or early next. I was never really going to be a rock star. But I was once in a band, left it after arguing with the lead guitarist, whereupon they got a recording contract. But they never really made any money, so I don’t mind at all. I guess I may not quite fit the profile of a stereotypical Labour activist, but of course both Labour & the Tories have a real variety of members and stereotypes are rarely accurate these days. This is, I am sure, as true of Broxbourne as it is of people!
One last comment – there can’t be much chance of Tim describing my home area as a dump. I live opposite Kew Gardens.
I am perhaps a little late to comment on the Cheshunt Central By – Election but here goes.
Firstly, I must declare an interest. I was active in the Tory campaign & I am, for my sins, a serving Borough Councillor (until next May).
Althought the change in vote share from last May looks encouraging for Labour it should be remembered that for the first time in years they ran a very active and energetic campaign in Cheshunt.
Normally Labour only “works” Waltham Cross Ward, where they enjoy electoral success, and field paper candidates in Cheshunt Central. I guess the numbers of available activists being a key consideration.
As this was a by election they threw pretty much all they had at Cheshunt Central and fought a good, perhaps slightly dirty, campaign with an experienced and competent candidate.
The Tory campaign was equally active (& perhaps dirty!) & to be honest it was enjoyable to be able to engage in a proper contest in Cheshunt.
The problem we found was elector apathy – a lack of interest in a by-election less than 2 months after the scheduled May election was noticeable.
A frequently heard comment on the doorstep was “you always win here anyway; I can’t be bothered to vote”.
As it turned out Labour effectively delivered their core vote in the ward whilst we did enough for a comfortable hold.
Boundary changes next year will totally change the Cheshunt Ward’s on Broxbourne Council but I fully expect comfortable Tory wins in the current area covered by Cheshunt Central Ward.
Labour will concentrate their firepower into the enlarged Waltham Cross Ward which is subsuming a polling district from Theobalds Ward which is usually safe Tory territory.
Otherwise it is hard to see where Labour can make an impact in Broxbourne next year.
Their days of winning seats in Rye Park, Rosedale, Bury Green & Cheshunt North are a very distant memory and the probable boundary changes are unlikely to help their cause in these areas.
Best outcome for Labour next year is to win the 3 Waltham Cross seats which will see a Tory Council with a 27 – 3 majority.
PS Thanks to Shaun for flagging the Wiki entry on Broxbourne Elections – nice to know that somebody has noticed my hard work!
It’s good work – I hadn’t seen this previously. It would be good if every authority had this level of coverage (I know quite a few do due to the work of others). Thanks also for the news about the ward boundary changes. I hadn’t been aware of this. It is slightly irritatiing that they have started to review the authorities in Hertfordshire on this rather ad hoc basis. The whole county was reviewed together for new ward boundaries in 1999 but since then Welwyn Hatfield, Dacorum and North Hertfordshire (twice!) have had boundary revisions at different times. For the most part those changes were fairly minor but have been enough to make me have to keep amending my ward outline maps for the county. It looks like those proposed in Broxbourne are fairly radical and it does create the possibility of an all-Tory council, though Labour’s improved performance in local elections now they are in opposition somewhat mitigates against that.
“PS Thanks to Shaun for flagging the Wiki entry on Broxbourne Elections – nice to know that somebody has noticed my hard work!”
That was you Richard? In that case my utmost appreciation to you for taking the time to create the articles. I was most interested. If only there were more prepared to take the time to publish their boroughs local election results.
If I had good enough computer skills, I’d be able to do my own area in North Staffordshire.
Thanks Pete & Shaun
Broxbourne Council (member services) were really helpful with providing election results going back to 1990 but didn’t have information before then.
I spent a lot of time in Cheshunt library & Hoddesdon library going through back issues of the local papers.
Also Councillor Brian Hill (a memebr of Broxbourne Council since 1978) provided invaluable help – especially with the 1980′s by-election results.
The boundary review excercise is quite interesting – the reduction of 3 wards & 8 seats inevitably means quite radical changes.
The decision of the LGBCE to recommend the Labour Groups proposed boundaries for the West Cheshunt area has caused some considerable angst.
Public consultation closed last Monday and over 150 submissions from the public are now on the LGBCE website – mainly from residents of Goffs Oak who are hopping mad at the proposal to merge their village with Bury Green into a new ward.
It will be interesting to see where the LGBCE go with this when the publish their final report in the Autumn.
The LGBCE has now published it’s final report on the Broxbourne Boundary Review which may be seen at:
http://www.lgbce.org.uk/__documents/lgbce-documents/draftfinal-reports-and-consultation-papers/2011-draftfinal-reports/broxbourne-final-recommendations-oct2011-final.pdf
As expected the recommendation is for 10 wards & 30 councillors but the final recommendations for the new wards represent a significant change from the previous proposals.
This is most marked in the areas to the west of the A10 main road where a very active campaign from local residents and Conservative councillors has resulted in the LGBCE adopting boundaries far more in line with the Borough Councils original submission.
The proposed linkage of the exisiting Bury Green & Goffs Oak wards will not now proceed and as a result Goffs Oak ward will expand into the Hammond Street area.
Bury Green will merge with much of the existing Rosedale ward.
All things considered, the LGBCE has responded positively to the public consultation exercise and give or take the odd bizarre decision on minor boundary issues seems to have done a pretty good job.
There is a County Council by-election pending in Waltham Cross Division of Broxbourne District following the sad death of County Councillor Terry Price
http://www.hertfordshiremercury.co.uk/Cheshunt-and-Waltham/Waltham-Cross-councillor-dies-09012012.htm