Broadland
2010 Results:
Conservative: 24338 (46.2%)
Labour: 7287 (13.83%)
Liberal Democrat: 17046 (32.36%)
BNP: 871 (1.65%)
UKIP: 2382 (4.52%)
Green: 752 (1.43%)
Majority: 7292 (13.84%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 20037 (41.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 14916 (30.7%)
Labour: 11630 (24%)
Other: 1927 (4%)
Majority: 5121 (10.6%)
New seat: : Broadland is mainly formed of the old Mid Norfolk seat (in fact more of Mid Norfolk ends up Broadland than in the new Mid Norfolk seat). The constitutuency is mainly drawn from the Broadland District Council area, from which it takes its name, but also includes six wards from North Norfolk, transferred to reduce the oversized Norfolk North constituency.
Profile: Broadland is a sweep of rural Norfolk to the North and East of Norfolk, consisting of part of North Norfolk and the majority of Broadland District council, including the market towns of Wroxham, Acle and Aylsham and part of the Norfolk Broads to the East. Keith Simpson, the Conservative MP for Mid Norfolk, has followed the majority of his old constituency into the new seat.
Current MP: Keith Simpson (Conservative) born 1949, Norwich. Educated at Thorpe Grammar School and Hull University. Military historian and former lecturer at Sandhurst. Contested Plymouth Devonport 1992, MP for Mid Norfolk since 1997. Defence spokesman 1998-1999, opposition whip 1999-2001, agriculture spokesman 2001-2002, shadow defence minister 2002-2005, shadow foreign affairs minister since 2005.
Keith Simpson (Conservative) born 1949, Norwich. Educated at Thorpe Grammar School and Hull University. Military historian and former lecturer at Sandhurst. Contested Plymouth Devonport 1992, MP for Mid Norfolk since 1997. Defence spokesman 1998-1999, opposition whip 1999-2001, agriculture spokesman 2001-2002, shadow defence minister 2002-2005, shadow foreign affairs minister since 2005.
Allyson Barron (Labour) Self employed sports therapist. Suffolk county councillor. Waveney District councillor
Dan Roper (Liberal Democrat) Susan Curran (Green)Stewart Agnew (UKIP)Edith Crowther (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89820
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 20.9%
Over 60: 24.5%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.4%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 15.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.8%
Owner-Occupied: 79.1%
Social Housing: 9.8% (Council: 2.9%, Housing Ass.: 6.8%)
Privately Rented: 7.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.9%
Con Hold
Maj 9900
Conservative: 24737
Liberal Democrat: 12525
Labour: 9546
Other: 1292
Majority: 12212
Con maj 9,000
OK…lets stick my neck out. Based on the last week…
LD gain, maj 600
That really is sticking your neck out. But who knows, I wouldn’t entirely rule it out just yet.
Well I’ll do it then Barnaby. Utter nonsense. The Lib Dem spinners are out in force at the moment aren’t they.
You might not like it Shaun but if today’s polls remain as they are until the election, with all 3 parties at around 30%, then this kind of seat would be very likely a Lib Dem gain.
Why is it “utter nonsense” to suggest that might happen? Believe me I would be just as depressed as you in such an eventuality, but it’s pointless to sit in denial of what might be happening.
Shaun,
I might be a LD spinner, but I’m one who is paying attention to polling (like this site is for…)
On post-debate polling, this goes LD
That’s what I meant. It was nonsense a few days ago, it might end up being nonsense, it isn’t at this precise moment.
With you on that Barnaby…would never have predicted it last Wednesday
We mustn’t forget that in 1983 the LDs’ predecessors won 26% and only 23 seats. I don’t think they’d win 23 seats this time with 26% but it wouldn’t be more than about 100.
Indeed Andy, but they are at 29/30++ since Thursday…
I think H Hemmelig is spot on.
Even with the weekend opinion polls the Lib Dems may struggle to gain marginal seats where they have already squeezed any third party vote (be it Labour or Conservative). This “plateau effect” was in evidence in both tthe 1970′s and 1980′s surge. But where there is a significant Labour vote in 3rd place – like here, and Bournemouth West and Chelmsford, – and a Conservative vote hovering around 40%, a tight result seems quite feasible.
After all isnt this exactly what happened at Solihull in 05? (and I still cant quite believe that happened!)
One thing that has struck me in this seat is the lack of communication from the parties.
Have had 2 LD and 2 CON flyers, but nothing from anywhere else…maybe there is a bit more time
I’ve had at least 10 letters from the LibDems in Norwich South but no canvassing whatsoever. Ifthe polls are right they should be in contention here- much more so than in Norwich South.
Leafletting has increased recenlty, more from LD than Con. Not seen any canvassing, but it is a very large seat to cover.
@ Wolf – I would think LD should be after this and Norwich South – on current polling they could take both (EC site agrees) – although I think the Greens and LD will split the vote and let Lab keep Norwich South
The chances of being canvasses in any general election is always very small. In North Norfolk in 2001 I doubt we called on more than 10%of the electorate during the campaign itself, and Norman Lamb has a fantastic organisation there.
In Broadland the strategy clearly is to get leaflets out. The Lib Dems always had to struggle to be “credible” and canvassing helped to achieve this credibility. That is not an issue now and leafleting gets you in touch with more voters in a seat which is nearly 40 miles long and very rural in places.
CON HOLD
Quite a good Tory result, in my opinion.
Keith Simpson should have been included in the Government, in a Defence, or Foreign policy role.
I don’t really agree this was a good Tory vote. The seat takes in a chunk of North Norfolk so the notional result flatters the Lib Dems by including a lot of Lamb voters. They also chose a candidate late after April Pond left to go for Norwich North in the by election.
On balance, I think the Lib Dems would have taken this result a year out, and to increase their vote and keep it pretty competitive was pleasing. I suspect Dan Roper may give it another go and it will be one to watch.
“Keith Simpson should have been included in the Government, in a Defence, or Foreign policy role.”
Conservative Home thinks he is now PPS to William Hague… so he has something at least.
I think it was quite a good result in the sense that the 10% drop in the Labour vote did not just transfer directly to the Lib Dems, reducing the Tory majority (as occurred in Maidstone, Canterbury, Bosworth, South East Cambridgeshire… and to a lesser extent Suffolk Coastal and North Herefordshire). Instead, there was at least a slight increase in the Tory vote share and majority.
Keith Simpson was on the BBC Politics channel – Book talk.
He does strike me as very well read, and quick off the mark,
and he had some very interesting things to say.
I’m pleased he does at least have something – a PPS to William Hague, but a pity he appeared not to get a chance to be in the government.
PPS is in the government technically.
Which seats was Aylsham ward in before this one?
I was under the impression that Aylsham was previously in S Norfolk.
Aylsham has certainly never been in South Norfolk. It was in Mid Norfolk from 1983-2010, North Norfolk 1974-83, Central Norfolk 1950-74 and North Norfolk before that (from 1885)
Whoops must have confused it with another town.
This is a very large constituency.
I haven’t worked out the population in each area of Norfolk,
but superficially,
it seems strange that this seat stretches so far west to take in Fakenham
aswell as stretching all the way across to take in (almost) all of the Norfolk Broads area,
aswell as the suburbs fringing Norwich North.
This is a classic Boundary Commission “residual” seat that takes in all the bits left over after other seats have been cut down to size. Therefore although loosely based on Broadland DC it doesn’t make a lot of community sense. If the Boundary revision goes through it will disappear in its present form, and revert to boundaries similar to teh previous mid-Norfolk seat.
Yes in that sense it’s a bit like the Mid Staffordshire seat which existed from 1983 to 1997, a long thin seat which included Lichfield, Rugeley and Stone, three towns which are better off in separate constituencies as they now are.
I would have thought this seat would be too large in population terms aswell
– I’m surprised Norfolk Mid and Norfolk South are more compact seats.
Clearly I’m wrong in that view though.
Wasn’t Fakenham in Norfolk North all the way to 2010? I can’t conceive of it being in any other seat, maybe it was in Mid Norfolk at some point as well
It was in NW Norfolk from 1885-1918 and again from 1974-83