Broadland
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 20037 (41.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 14916 (30.7%)
Labour: 11630 (24%)
Other: 1927 (4%)
Majority: 5121 (10.6%)
New seat: : Broadland is mainly formed of the old Mid Norfolk seat (in fact more of Mid Norfolk ends up Broadland than in the new Mid Norfolk seat). The constitutuency is mainly drawn from the Broadland District Council area, from which it takes its name, but also includes six wards from North Norfolk, transferred to reduce the oversized Norfolk North constituency.
Profile: Broadland is a sweep of rural Norfolk to the North and East of Norfolk, consisting of part of North Norfolk and the majority of Broadland District council, including the market towns of Wroxham, Acle and Aylsham and part of the Norfolk Broads to the East. Keith Simpson, the Conservative MP for Mid Norfolk, has followed the majority of his old constituency into the new seat.
Candidates:
Keith Simpson (Conservative) born 1949, Norwich. Educated at Thorpe Grammar School and Hull University. Military historian and former lecturer at Sandhurst. Contested Plymouth Devonport 1992, MP for Mid Norfolk since 1997. Defence spokesman 1998-1999, opposition whip 1999-2001, agriculture spokesman 2001-2002, shadow defence minister 2002-2005, shadow foreign affairs minister since 2005.
Allyson Barron (Labour) Self employed sports therapist. Suffolk county councillor. Waveney District councillor
Dan Roper (Liberal Democrat) Susan Curran (Green)Stewart Agnew (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89820
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 20.9%
Over 60: 24.5%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.4%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 15.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.8%
Owner-Occupied: 79.1%
Social Housing: 9.8% (Council: 2.9%, Housing Ass.: 6.8%)
Privately Rented: 7.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.9%
Thursday’s by-election results show huge swings to Lib Dems.
Wroxham ward, Broadland DC,
Liberal Democrat, Ben McGilvray 960, 62.5% [8.1%, +54.4%]
Conservative, Ian Evans 346, 22.5% [41.4%, -18.9% ]
UKIP, Glenn Tingle 134, 8.7% [0% +8.7%]
Green, Nick Ball 50, 3.3% [7.8%, -4.6% ]
Labour, Malcolm Kemp 46, 3% [3.8%, -0.8% ]
[Independent candidates in 2007, 38.8% -38.8%]
Walsingham Ward, North Norfolk DC,
Liberal Democrat, Hugh Lanham 389, 58.1% [25.6%, +32.5% ]
Conservative, Tom Fitzpatrick 237, 35.4% [0%, +35.4%]
Labour, Michael Gates 43, 6.4% [0%, +6.4%]
[Independent candidate in 2007, 74.4%, -74.4%]
True, a lot of which is to do with Independent candidates not standing again – I would hesitate to try and project these results onto the seat as a whole.
Suspect this seat could go LibDem at the GE after next. The Labour Party will probably have ceased to exist in this constituency by then , which will help them enormously.
Its certainly possible – who knows what the political landscape will look like then?
The swing in Wroxham was certainly not down to the absence of Independent candidates . In 2007 the sole Conservative and leading Ind ( ex Conservative ) candidates ran in tandem and got 900 odd votes each , the 2 Libdem candidates fewer than 200 votes each .
I don’t think the Labour Party will cease to exist here.
The next General Election will probably see a larger vote for the two main parties than the last one – when we actually get to it, because there will be a contest.
(and there are only two major parties).
Nevertheless, the evidence is Labour are likely to fall back significantly more than average here.
A holiday in the Norfolk Broads is certainly on the list.
I have done various work for organisations in this area though.
Dan Roper has been selected as the Liberal Democrat candidate.
“Thursday’s by-election results show huge swings to Lib Dems”
Being ultra-technical, isn’t the Walsingham result actually a very small Lib Dem to Tory swing in that both parties massively increased their votes from 2007 in the absence of the independent, but the Tories by fractionally more?
However, the Tories didn’t stand in 2007 so clearly it’s fairly meaningless and the Lib Dems can take most encouragement from both results. I tend to agree with Wolf that this is one to watch… in 2014/15. Dan Roper is in his thirties and might well have that long game in mind if he can keep Simpson within striking distance in May.
Norfolk Blogger standing as the official Liberal Democrat candidate in the Taverham North Ward by-election to be held on 18th March 2010.
The anti-Rackheath eco-town lobby could boost Dan Roper’s votes unless the other candidates wake up to the huge amount of opposition out there. Broadland District Council have got this wrong and their Tory councillors are going to pay the price and so will Mr Simpson unless he takes heed and stands up to and fights this crazy development with a little more conviction than he is currently displaying.