Broadland
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 20037 (41.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 14916 (30.7%)
Labour: 11630 (24%)
Other: 1927 (4%)
Majority: 5121 (10.6%)
New Seat: Broadland is mainly formed of the old Mid Norfolk seat (in fact more of Mid Norfolk ends up Broadland than in the new Mid Norfolk seat). The constitutuency is mainly drawn from the Broadland District Council area, from which it takes its name, but also includes six wards from North Norfolk, transferred to reduce the oversized Norfolk North constituency.
Profile: Broadland is a sweep of rural Norfolk to the North and East of Norfolk, consisting of part of North Norfolk and the majority of Broadland District council, including the market towns of Wroxham, Acle and Aylsham and part of the Norfolk Broads to the East. Keith Simpson, the Conservative MP for Mid Norfolk, has followed the majority of his old constituency into the new seat.
Candidates:
Keith Simpson(Conservative) born 1949, Norwich. Educated at Thorpe Grammar School and Hull University. Military historian and former lecturer at Sandhurst. Contested Plymouth Devonport 1992, MP for Mid Norfolk since 1997. Defence spokesman 1998-1999, opposition whip 1999-2001, agriculture spokesman 2001-2002, shadow defence minister 2002-2005, shadow foreign affairs minister since 2005.
April Pond (Liberal Democrat) born 1962, Mulbarton. Educated at Norwich High School. Self employed retailer. Norwich councillor since 2002
Allyson Barron (Labour) Self employed sports therapist. Suffolk county councillor. Waveney District councillor
Stuart Agnew (UKIP) Educated at Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester. Farmer. Contested Mid Norfolk 2001, Norfolk North 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89820
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 20.9%
Over 60: 24.5%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.4%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 15.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.8%
Owner-Occupied: 79.1%
Social Housing: 9.8% (Council: 2.9%, Housing Ass.: 6.8%)
Privately Rented: 7.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.9%
40 Responses
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Should really have inserted if not bigger between big and comparing in the last sentence .
November 23rd, 2007 at 2:29 pmRuislip Northwood
I’m not saying this isnt a good result for the LDs but we have heard much of their formidable machine in this area and they muct have thrown the kitcehn sink at holding this. Aylsham is one of the larger towns of this seat (which isnt saying much) and as such it always had something of a Labour vote in the past. Clearly this has moved over whole sale to the LDs - the same in May. It looks like compared with then and compared with 2005 the Tories failed to get their voters out, rather than that they suffered direct defections to the LDs in large numbers. LIke I say there’s no taking away from the LDs this is a good result but it wouldnt alter my prediction that this seat will be held by the Tories come the general election. This might actually help alert them to the threat if they werent already well aware of it.
November 23rd, 2007 at 2:45 pmStoke-on-Trent South
Yes, based on Mark Senior’s figure’s it looks like the swing from May was around 15% directly from Conservative to Lib Dem. Labour fell slightly by around 3% and UKIP came in with around the same percentage of votes that Labour lost. (Yet more evidence perhaps that UKIP hits the Labour vote much more than the Tories-as I have argued in the past).
I remain to be convinced that the Lib Dems can perform anything like as well at the next general election-since they were already ahead in Aylsham last time to start with, after the huge swing in their favour in Norfolk North.
My verdict, Dissapointing. A Lib Dem town remains a Lib Dem down. No change and not very exciting.
November 23rd, 2007 at 5:41 pmRuislip Northwood
“they were already ahead in Aylsham last time to start with, after the huge swing in their favour in Norfolk North”
Aylsham wasnt in Norfolk North though - its always been in Norfolk Mid. I dont think its possible to draw any conclusions re: the UKIP vote from this byelection. It does look to me like the real flow of votes is from Labour to LD - certainly that is true when compared with 2005. It is a confirmation of what occurred in May but with the Tories failing to match the turnout and the LDs increasing theirs. As I suggested a technical 15% swing from Tory to LD doesnt really imply that level of movement between the two parties.
November 23rd, 2007 at 5:53 pmif the Tories keep voting themselves 30% pay rises
November 23rd, 2007 at 5:58 pmthey’ll have more problems.Aylsham has begun to decline - it’s just lost its HSBC (ex-midland) bank and i’m sure the Libs have made much of the proposed local hospital closure especially with the problems in the Norwich hospital.Keith Simpson strikes me as pretty lazy - I should think he’s paired with some ex -miner in Durham.
Stoke-on-Trent South
Yes sorry Pete. I beleive that the North Norfolk seat of pre-1918 was otherwise known as Aylsham, so I thought that the town was historically linked with that seat. For some reason, I was also convinced that the town was in North Norfolk district, but I’ve now found it in Broadland.
I see that the Lib Dems continued to just about top the poll in the Aylsham district council seat in May, although it was pretty much neck-and-neck.
So it was a very good result for the Lib Dems in the by-election. But I still can’t see how they can translate it into parliamentary success when a large part of the Lib Dem vote on the notional Broadland figures will have been influenced by the high watermark of Norfolk North in 2005. In this section of the seat, the only way is down.
November 23rd, 2007 at 6:15 pmAldershot (Windsor and Glasgow North)
I think ‘Norfolk Broads’ would have been better as a title, as this is not similar to the local authority area.
November 23rd, 2007 at 10:24 pmPreston
IIRC someone at the Boundary Commission meeting suggested “Heart Of Norfolk”
December 24th, 2007 at 8:37 amLewisham Deptford
“Heart of Norfolk” sounds like more like an ETB booklet than a parliamentary seat.
May 20th, 2008 at 5:27 pmThere was a Norfolk Central which was abolished in 1974, reducing the county by 1 seat.
The 1974 - 1983 Norfolk North contained more of the pre-1974 Norfolk Central than North. The rest of North was merged with Kings Linn to form Norfolk North West. A third of Central also went into Norfolk South.
When Norfolk Mid was created in 1983 it actually took in much more of the sum of Norfolk South and Yarmouth than Norfolk North, though Norfolk North West lost the Norfolk North area it gained in 1974 (reverting to more or less the old Kings Linn boundaries) and Norfolk North more or less re-adopted it pre-1974 boundaries. Norfolk Mid was not entirely a ressurrected Norfolk Central.
The point I make is that this new is more or less the old Norfolk Central, whereas Norfolk Mid is now formed generally from much of what has traditionally been Norfolk South West.
July 5th, 2008 at 8:14 pmPages: « 1 2 [3] Show All