Comments on: Bristol West

By: Ben Foley

Ben Foley — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 13:27:46 +0000

I can’t see how an individual abstaining on a vote in 2010 when they had signed a personal pledge to vote against will help them in 2015. I certainly don’t think it will be worth 2000 votes.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 08:50:59 +0000

‘To be honest Barnaby I would have thought this seat a better Labour prospect than North West – regardless of the current maths’

The boundary changes seem to actually increase Stephen William’s majority here:

LD 24458 49.3%
Lab 12469 25.2%
Con 9660 19.5%
Grn 1859 3.7%
UKIP 587 1.2%
Other 545 1.1%

Maj 11989

I would imagine the most likely scenario is a big swing back to Labour with Stephen Williams holding on by 2000 or so considering he abstained on the tuition fees vote.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 15:41:24 +0000

Actually it was a pretty safe Labour seat. I don’t think Labour lost Bristol Central from the end of WWII until its abolition in 1974. The NE & NW seats which existed at that time were instead marginal, though NE was safe Labour from 1974 until its abolition because, I suspect, it took in a lot of the old Central. S & SE were safe Labour divisions as well, and W was very safe Tory, containing as it did hardly any of the more Labour-inclined areas which it does nowadays. You are however right to suggest that the present West has more in common with the old Central than the old West.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 14:41:21 +0000

To be honest Barnaby I would have thought this seat a better Labour prospect than North West – regardless of the current maths

The removal of wards like Westbury has eroded the Tory vote further – and Mr Williams doesn’t seem like the type of Lib Dem candidate likely to attract Tory tactical votes

He’s doine well to build such a solid majority in what used to be the Tiries afest seat in the city, althogh current boundaries don’t look too dissimilar to the old Bristol central seat – which of course was a Labour seat in an even year

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 12:12:28 +0000

Apologies, I did know that the ward was in Bristol NW but accidentally posted this on the Bristol W thread. I did therefore mean that Bristol NW is a Labour target, though Bristol W is too if Labour can get at Williams’s vote as seems even likelier after this result.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 11:46:54 +0000

But they didn’t beat Labour Tim..

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 11:42:03 +0000

‘I think Southmead is in the current North West constituency (which makes the Tory good performance more important as it’s a Con marginal constituency)’

My impression of the Southmead was of one big (and fairly deprived) council estate – exactly the type of place where you’d expect Labour to have a core vote and the Tories not to do well at all

As a counter balance to the middle class wards like Westbury and Stoke Bishop to keep the seat marginal

If Tories are beating Labour in Southmead Labour might as well give up altogether

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 10:56:40 +0000

An interesting result. Clearly a tall order for Labour to take back Bristol NW as they start in third place but its now a clear Con-Lab fight.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 10:56:09 +0000

I agree. Its likely there was a tactical vote for the LDs by Tory supporters in previous elections where the latter did well and appeared to be the best bet for beating Labour. Obviously comparing the result with 2010 the numerical vote for all parties including the Conservatives is down and its a bit of a mugs game therefore to try and speculate about the flow of votes. A lot of people who voted BNP in 2010 will not have voted this time (same for a lot of people who voted Lab/Con/LD). No doubt some former BNP voters voted Conservative and some Labour and some former LD voters switched to those parties, but differential turnout will also account for some of the change. Also as Andrea says this ward is in Bristol NW which now has a Tory MP which probably helps them a little organisationally

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 10:41:28 +0000

“It seems that the BNP vote went mainly to the Tories”

Why does it seem like that?
The Lib Dem vote fell by 12% and the Tory vote increased by 10%.
The BNP vote fell by 6% and the Labour vote increased by 5%

Is it not equally likely that BNP voters broke on balance behind Labour, whilst a lot of the Lib Dem vote came back to the Tories unwinding a lot of the swing from Tory to Lib Dem in Bristol over the past 20 years?

I agree its a broadly encouraging result though.