Comments on: Bristol West

By: GreenGreenie

GreenGreenie — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 20:25:05 +0000

I really can’t see the Tories polling well here as the old Conservative voting areas are now in Bristol North West.

Ricky Knight was the lead Euro candidate Green candidate for the South West, here is the relevant website page:

http://www.bristolgreenparty.org.uk/Bristol-West-Info/about-bristol-west.html

By: smokey Jones

smokey Jones — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 22:30:04 +0000

Also, it seems to me that Electoral calculus cannot appreciate the arithmetic in Multi member wards when two or more members are to be elected at one election.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 22:24:26 +0000

You’d be right there Chris – Electoral Calculus is a very blunt tool indeed.

By: ChrisInTheNorth

ChrisInTheNorth — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 21:54:52 +0000

Frederic… I don’t rely on ‘Electoral calculus’ for any kind of realistic prediction.. from what I can see they just apply the national ’swings’ to last times results… I think thats the only explanation for the high conservative figure

By: Mark Senior

Mark Senior — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 19:21:28 +0000

Worth repeating the aggregate votes from last years council elections in the wards making up this seat .
LibDems 8 wards Labour 1 ( by just 9 votes )

LibDem 13145 43.2%
Labour… 5083 16.7%
Conser… 4971 16.4%
Greens… 6694 22.0%
Others…… 500 1.7%

The Greens may well make it a 3 horse race for 2nd place though I expect as in 2005 they will lose about 1/2 their support to Labour and LibDems

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 17:41:52 +0000

Electoral Calculus currently has:-
LIbDem 34.48%
Lab 28.69%
C 25.11%
Other 11.71%

Compared to recent posts, this has the Tories much closer, and indeed with a sufficient chance of winning the seat to deter tactical voting. And my understanding is that in Bristol generally people are prepared to switch between all three major parties.

The link Paul Smith has provided us with kindly tells us that the Green candidates is Ricky Knight from North Devon. Can we have some biographical details, and also information as to whether there will be a UKIP candidate, or any other minor party candidate.

The Greens are very optimistic if they think they can turn this seat into a genuilnely four way contest. However, they should certainly hope to save their deposit, and if they attract considerable votes it could affect the result.

The LibDems will be helped by an incumbency effect, even with boundary changes (which make the result less predictable) and are clearly favourites. However, I think Shadsy’s 1/5 last October was stingy, and indeed if you are a politics betting person 7/1 for either of the other major parties seems to me worth considering.

By: Cogload

Cogload — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 17:08:04 +0000

Mr Smith being the Labour PPC for the seat.

By: Paul Smith

Paul Smith — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 15:24:40 +0000

the view of the local magazine Venue on the seat

http://bristolwestpaul.wordpress.com/2010/01/06/look-here/

Also some evidence that the Lib Dems (probably) are running a poll in the seat – at least 2 labour members have reported to me being polled.

By: Green Greenie

Green Greenie — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 17:39:05 +0000

I doubt if anyone will come close to the Lib Dem’s Labour’s vote has been shrinking and the Green’s growing in both Euro and local elections since 2005 in the area.
Paul Smith has also lost the goodwill of the labour party machine for his recent (quite reasonable) critical comments. Labour will instead throw its weight behind its existing MPs, the decent Roger Berry and the mediocre Kerry McCarthy and awful Primarolo.
I’d say LD 38% Lab 28% Con 18% Green 15% others 1%

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 19:06:56 +0000

A punt
LD 38/39, Lab 33/34, Con 17/18, Green 8/9, UKIP 1