Bristol West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10169 (18.37%)
Labour: 15227 (27.51%)
Liberal Democrat: 26593 (48.05%)
UKIP: 655 (1.18%)
Green: 2090 (3.78%)
English Democrat: 270 (0.49%)
Independent: 343 (0.62%)
Majority: 11366 (20.54%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18051 (40.5%)
Labour: 17411 (39%)
Conservative: 6117 (13.7%)
Other: 3010 (6.8%)
Majority: 640 (1.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15429 (26.9%)
Labour: 16859 (29.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 21987 (38.3%)
Green: 2163 (3.8%)
UKIP: 439 (0.8%)
Other: 519 (0.9%)
Majority: 5128 (8.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16040 (28.8%)
Labour: 20505 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 16079 (28.9%)
UKIP: 490 (0.9%)
Green: 1961 (3.5%)
Other: 590 (1.1%)
Majority: 4426 (8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20575 (32.8%)
Labour: 22068 (35.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 17551 (28%)
Referendum: 1304 (2.1%)
Other: 1143 (1.8%)
Majority: 1493 (2.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Stephen Williams(Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Mountain Ash. Educated at Mountain Ash Comprehensive and Bristol University. Chartered tax advisor. Bristol councillor 1993-1999. Contested Bristol South 1997, Bristol West 2001. MP for Bristol West since 2005. Lib Dem shadow heath minister 2005-2006, education since 2006-2007, innovation and universities 2007- (more information at They work for you)
Nick Yarker (Conservative) Educated at Oxford university. Works in an advertising agency. Westminster councillor since 2006.Paul Smith (Labour) born Bristol. Chief Executive of a national furniture re-cycling charity. Former Bristol councillor.Stephen Williams(Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Mountain Ash. Educated at Mountain Ash Comprehensive and Bristol University. Chartered tax advisor. Bristol councillor 1993-1999. Contested Bristol South 1997, Bristol West 2001. MP for Bristol West since 2005. Lib Dem shadow heath minister 2005-2006, education since 2006-2007, innovation and universities 2007- (more information at They work for you)
Ricky Knight (Green) Modern languages teacher. Contested North Devon 2005, South West region 2009 European elections.Chris Lees (UKIP)Jon Baker (English Democrat) Danny Kushlick (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95464
Male: 50.4%
Female: 49.6%
Under 18: 16.8%
Over 60: 12.2%
Born outside UK: 15.3%
White: 84.9%
Black: 5.1%
Asian: 4.9%
Mixed: 3.3%
Other: 1.7%
Christian: 49.6%
Hindu: 0.9%
Muslim: 3.9%
Sikh: 0.8%
Full time students: 19.9%
Graduates 16-74: 42.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 12.9%
Owner-Occupied: 51%
Social Housing: 17.1% (Council: 10.7%, Housing Ass.: 6.3%)
Privately Rented: 27.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.8%
To be honest Barnaby I would have thought this seat a better Labour prospect than North West – regardless of the current maths
The removal of wards like Westbury has eroded the Tory vote further – and Mr Williams doesn’t seem like the type of Lib Dem candidate likely to attract Tory tactical votes
He’s doine well to build such a solid majority in what used to be the Tiries afest seat in the city, althogh current boundaries don’t look too dissimilar to the old Bristol central seat – which of course was a Labour seat in an even year
Actually it was a pretty safe Labour seat. I don’t think Labour lost Bristol Central from the end of WWII until its abolition in 1974. The NE & NW seats which existed at that time were instead marginal, though NE was safe Labour from 1974 until its abolition because, I suspect, it took in a lot of the old Central. S & SE were safe Labour divisions as well, and W was very safe Tory, containing as it did hardly any of the more Labour-inclined areas which it does nowadays. You are however right to suggest that the present West has more in common with the old Central than the old West.
‘To be honest Barnaby I would have thought this seat a better Labour prospect than North West – regardless of the current maths’
The boundary changes seem to actually increase Stephen William’s majority here:
LD 24458 49.3%
Lab 12469 25.2%
Con 9660 19.5%
Grn 1859 3.7%
UKIP 587 1.2%
Other 545 1.1%
Maj 11989
I would imagine the most likely scenario is a big swing back to Labour with Stephen Williams holding on by 2000 or so considering he abstained on the tuition fees vote.
I can’t see how an individual abstaining on a vote in 2010 when they had signed a personal pledge to vote against will help them in 2015. I certainly don’t think it will be worth 2000 votes.
Stephen Williams won this seat as a result of a large protest vote against Labour after the Iraq war. Bristol has a large pacifist/anti war community. In his first term he was a reasonably diligent if uninspiring constituency MP. Since then he has enraged voters-he has voted with the govt on the NHS Bill and the tuition fees issues will probably not go away. It is rumoured that a private fighting fund is being established in the constituency to bring his voting record to the voters attention at the next election and to campaign against him. It is expected to be regained by Labour although the fund has no political connection to them.
Has the area presently covered by Cabot, Clifton, and Lawrence Hill wards been in the ‘old’ Bristol West 1885-1918, Bristol Central 1918-74 and this seat since?
Have the areas covered by Cabot, Clifton, and Lawrence Hill wards been in the ‘old’ Bristol West 1885-1918, Bristol Central 1918-74, and this seat since?
I thought everybody knew that Lawrence Hill was only added to this seat in 2010 before which it was in Bristol East (since 1983). It would have been in Bristol NE from 1974 to 1983 and indeed in Bristol Central for the whole existance of that seat (1919-74). Before 1918 mostly in Bristol East but with a small area in the south around Temple Meads in Bristol South
Cabot has been in Bristol West since 1955 having been in Bristol Central before that. From 1885 to 1918 the area was probably divided between all four Bristol seats but mostly in North and South (Bristol South extended some way north of the River Avon at that time)
Clifton has always been in Bristol West, since 1885
Pete,
Cabot ward’s boundaries have changed twice, since its creation in 1954. The broad effect has been to shift the bottom half of the ward eastwards to include the western parts of the 1954 St Phillip and Jacob ward.
This slightly modifies your answer in that the current Cabot ward would have been split between Bristol West and North East between 1970 and 1983 and between West and Central between 1918 and 1970.
I found a (small) 1885 map of the Boundaries Commissioners reports for Bristol. The current Cabot ward would be mostly in West with some in North and South.
You have previously mentioned “Guide to Local Administrative Units of England by Frederick A Youngs” as a source for details of wards in parliamentary seats up to 1970’s. Bristol Central Library had a copy and it was a useful reference – thanks.
Thanks for that clarification. I have explained to Harry on other threads where he has asked these kinds of questions that there is usually not a simple answer, especially in dealing with central areas like this which would have been covered by many more and different wards in the past. The a History of Britain website doesn’t generally have maps detailing the divisions of large cities (except for the 1955-74 boundaries) and for the 1885 boundaries I was reliant on a anot very detailed map in Henry Pellings Social Geography of British Elelctions 1885-1910.
The Guide to Local Administrative Units of England is very useful but its value is limited obviously if one doesn’t have a map of the wards listed
Pete, Westbury on Trym was of course in this seat before 2010 (it’s now in Bristol North West), but apparently it was in North West before, from its creation in 1950 until I know not when – presumably ’74 or ’83. I don’t know which seat or seats it was in before 1950. Despite now being a ward of the City of Bristol, its history long predates that of the city itself and it still very much retains village-like characteristics (much like Mitcham in South London.)
MItcham wtf?! Not exactly a cpiture postcard village is it. Were you thinking of somewehre else?
As for Westbury on Trym, it was addded to this seat in 1983. As you say it was in Bristol NW from the creation of that seat in 1950, prior to which it was again in Bristol West
Any predictions for 2015 in this seat?
WIll it be a three-way marginal or will it be a fight between Labour and the Tories? (I can’t see the Lib Dems holding this seat).
As this seat is currently drawn, I don’t see a way back for the Tories. They could recover a bit in Clifton but too much of the LD vote lacks potential for them. I’m sure that it will remain a Lab-LD contest.
That must be right – a look at the stats at the top of the page shows how very far this seat is from being a ‘leafy suburban’ one (which some people still assume it is). It’s more like an inner-city seat now.
The only way the Lib Dems can hold this seat in 2015 is if there is a complete collapse in the Tory vote and heavy tactical voting for Stephen Williams by Tory supporters. Expect the constituency to be flooded by Lib Dem Focus leaflets with the customary dodgy graphs.
Yes LOL something like this-
http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?q=lib+dems+cant+win&num=10&hl=en&biw=1024&bih=677&tbm=isch&tbnid=FA1-PqIsK9DizM:&imgrefurl=http://bridget4islington.wordpress.com/page/2/&docid=4HF8hIJE2__ETM&imgurl=http://bridget4islington.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/barchart.gif%253Fw%253D185%2526h%253D185&w=185&h=185&ei=QfCDUMv6L8Ow0QWXooGABA&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=116&sig=104777942543061166103&page=1&tbnh=148&tbnw=148&start=0&ndsp=14&ved=1t:429,r:13,s:0,i:109&tx=53&ty=7
Sorry, the wrong graph. Here’s the right one-
http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?q=Tories+can%27t+win+here&num=10&hl=en&sa=X&biw=1024&bih=677&tbm=isch&tbnid=RXR62teCF6T-iM:&imgrefurl=http://aureamediocritas-tonyd.blogspot.com/2010_05_01_archive.html&docid=eyJXwytiGn0c_M&imgurl=http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ayNz6zf3LYs/S-0YJEUyqpI/AAAAAAAAAHI/bbBMQpY2Uig/s1600/Bristol%252BWest.JPG&w=394&h=524&ei=xPCDUI-GAumx0QXs7oCQBQ&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=190&sig=104777942543061166103&page=1&tbnh=149&tbnw=121&start=0&ndsp=16&ved=1t:429,r:7,s:0,i:87&tx=19&ty=31
In this case why would the graphs be “dodgy”? Isn’t this seat almost certainly going to be between the Lib Dems and Labour?
I think what James was trying to say was that the graphs may be used as a form of scaremongering to try and get Conservative voters to vote tactically for the Lib Dems. Only you would think it would actually be the Lib Dem vote that would fall if anything.
I’d predict a LD hold with a small but comfortable majority.
I wouldn’t. In fact I’d predict a Labour gain with a small but comfortable majority more likely.
I can’t see Labour gaining this seat in 2015. Even with the likely backlash against Lib Dems in seats like this, Stephen Williams is far enough ahead to hold on for one more term. I do think however that Labour will have a good chance of gaining it in 2020.
“I do think however that Labour will have a good chance of gaining it in 2020.”
I suspect that Williams might have a majority over 10,000 in 2020.
It’ll be closer to 1,000 in 2015.
“I suspect that Williams might have a majority over 10,000 in 2020.”
What makes you think that? I don’t think that scenario is particularly likely.
I don’t think Williams will ever come close to winning a majority of 10,000 or more ever again, even if he does hold the seat in 2015.
I expect the government of the Eds will be a rerun of 1974-1979.
Any non Labour MP elected in 2015 can expect a big increase in their majority in 2020 barring dramatic adverse demographic change in their constituency.
”Any non Labour MP elected in 2015 can expect a big increase in their majority in 2020 barring dramatic adverse demographic change in their constituency.”
Richard, that doesn’t make sense. There are going to be a number of MPs from the Tories, Lib Dems, Northern Ireland parties and probably even SNP and Plaid Cymru who will see reduced majorities in 2020.
Richard is right, if Labour win an outright majority.
However if they go into a Lib-Lab coalition then the Lib Dems will go down with the Labour party in 2020 – maybe even more so.
I don’t understand. Even if Labour are in government by the 2020 Election and even if they are not all that popular, how can the Tories, Lib Dems et al NOT have MPs elected with reduced majorities- There were dozens of examples for both parties in 2001 and 2005 when Labour were last in, particularly the latter when they were declining in popularity.
HH
Exactly.
Though I think the LibDems will prefer a time in opposition after 2015 if only to rebuild their support. The wiser among them will also know what will be ahead of us at that point and will want no part in government.
So we’ll be more likely to get a Labour minority government than a Lab–Lib coalition.
Something which would make it even harder for the Eds.
Richard, you do have a point. And if the Lib Dems do indeed face the annihilation in terms of seats that I have so often predicted on here in 2015, then I would concede that there would be only one way for them come 2020- Up.
The 1974 election(s) may prove to be very appropriate comparisons for 2015.
The electorate is not yet ready to accept the scale of public spending cuts and falling living standards that the UK and most other first world countries have to go through. Just as in 1974 the public were not ready to approve of radical trade union reform despite the mounting evidence that it was desperately needed.
As in 1974-79 it will take a period of chaotic Labour government to convince the country that there is no alternative other than to attack the problem head on.
“Though I think the LibDems will prefer a time in opposition after 2015 if only to rebuild their support. The wiser among them will also know what will be ahead of us at that point and will want no part in government.”
That makes sense.
Furthermore there will be deep resistance on the Labour backbenches and in the grassroots to governing with a party that has just come out of propping up 5 years of Tory government. With the prospect of ministerial salaries and cars dangling in front of their noses, the Labour frontbench will I expect be more flexible if a deal with the Lib Dems is the best way into government.
This is likely to remain a Lib Dem v Labour contest although the Tories could improve somewhat in Clifton.
Given the size of the LD majority, they probably will hold on although there could be a big cut in it.
I take no pleasure in agreeing with Joe that the Lib Dems will most likely hold this.
Stephen Williams is regularly on the TV but I can’t imagine why the party allows this, as his TV manner is as awful as most of what he says. In the Welsh Windbag stakes he gives Neil Kinnock a good run for his money. Nevertheless as the equally annoying Tim Farron demonstrates, that kind of personality seems to bode well for Lib Dems holding their seats.
I posted this at the time, but I was in Bristol in April 2010 just after the “Cleggmania” and there were free copies of the Independent all over the place,
all over the buses and trains
with pages and pages about the Lib Dems and PR and so on.
Does anyone know when a party other than the LDs won the wards covering Clifton. It would have to be further back than 1995. I was surprised Labour didn’t do a bit better in 1995 to 97 and 2001. Prob some split voting. If on the other hand the Tories we’re to get those 2 wards it would need a split of labour green and lib votes. There was some rewarding in recent years but the points remain.
I think as so often the answer is 1992. There as a single Clifton ward at that time and the Tories had held it rhoughout the 1980s (and presumably much further back) but the LDs won it in 1994 and all following years. Clifton East was a new ward in 1999 and has always been LD held
In some of these university seats it’s possible the Greens will pick up support from disillusioned LDs and simultaneously lose votes to Labour. So the Green vote will become more liberal/left and less socialist/left.
I wouldnt be suprised at all if Labour gained this seat. Id envisage a swing of about 7% LD->Lab being the best guess nationally and this is the type of area that might go higher.
Thanks for the answer about Clifton Pete.
1992 of course makes sense.
Clifton East requires a swing of 2.3% from LD to Con since May 2011.