Bristol West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10169 (18.37%)
Labour: 15227 (27.51%)
Liberal Democrat: 26593 (48.05%)
UKIP: 655 (1.18%)
Green: 2090 (3.78%)
English Democrat: 270 (0.49%)
Independent: 343 (0.62%)
Majority: 11366 (20.54%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18051 (40.5%)
Labour: 17411 (39%)
Conservative: 6117 (13.7%)
Other: 3010 (6.8%)
Majority: 640 (1.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15429 (26.9%)
Labour: 16859 (29.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 21987 (38.3%)
Green: 2163 (3.8%)
UKIP: 439 (0.8%)
Other: 519 (0.9%)
Majority: 5128 (8.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16040 (28.8%)
Labour: 20505 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 16079 (28.9%)
UKIP: 490 (0.9%)
Green: 1961 (3.5%)
Other: 590 (1.1%)
Majority: 4426 (8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20575 (32.8%)
Labour: 22068 (35.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 17551 (28%)
Referendum: 1304 (2.1%)
Other: 1143 (1.8%)
Majority: 1493 (2.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Stephen Williams(Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Mountain Ash. Educated at Mountain Ash Comprehensive and Bristol University. Chartered tax advisor. Bristol councillor 1993-1999. Contested Bristol South 1997, Bristol West 2001. MP for Bristol West since 2005. Lib Dem shadow heath minister 2005-2006, education since 2006-2007, innovation and universities 2007- (more information at They work for you)
Nick Yarker (Conservative) Educated at Oxford university. Works in an advertising agency. Westminster councillor since 2006.Paul Smith (Labour) born Bristol. Chief Executive of a national furniture re-cycling charity. Former Bristol councillor.Stephen Williams(Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Mountain Ash. Educated at Mountain Ash Comprehensive and Bristol University. Chartered tax advisor. Bristol councillor 1993-1999. Contested Bristol South 1997, Bristol West 2001. MP for Bristol West since 2005. Lib Dem shadow heath minister 2005-2006, education since 2006-2007, innovation and universities 2007- (more information at They work for you)
Ricky Knight (Green) Modern languages teacher. Contested North Devon 2005, South West region 2009 European elections.Chris Lees (UKIP)Jon Baker (English Democrat) Danny Kushlick (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95464
Male: 50.4%
Female: 49.6%
Under 18: 16.8%
Over 60: 12.2%
Born outside UK: 15.3%
White: 84.9%
Black: 5.1%
Asian: 4.9%
Mixed: 3.3%
Other: 1.7%
Christian: 49.6%
Hindu: 0.9%
Muslim: 3.9%
Sikh: 0.8%
Full time students: 19.9%
Graduates 16-74: 42.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 12.9%
Owner-Occupied: 51%
Social Housing: 17.1% (Council: 10.7%, Housing Ass.: 6.3%)
Privately Rented: 27.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.8%
To be honest Barnaby I would have thought this seat a better Labour prospect than North West – regardless of the current maths
The removal of wards like Westbury has eroded the Tory vote further – and Mr Williams doesn’t seem like the type of Lib Dem candidate likely to attract Tory tactical votes
He’s doine well to build such a solid majority in what used to be the Tiries afest seat in the city, althogh current boundaries don’t look too dissimilar to the old Bristol central seat – which of course was a Labour seat in an even year
Actually it was a pretty safe Labour seat. I don’t think Labour lost Bristol Central from the end of WWII until its abolition in 1974. The NE & NW seats which existed at that time were instead marginal, though NE was safe Labour from 1974 until its abolition because, I suspect, it took in a lot of the old Central. S & SE were safe Labour divisions as well, and W was very safe Tory, containing as it did hardly any of the more Labour-inclined areas which it does nowadays. You are however right to suggest that the present West has more in common with the old Central than the old West.
‘To be honest Barnaby I would have thought this seat a better Labour prospect than North West – regardless of the current maths’
The boundary changes seem to actually increase Stephen William’s majority here:
LD 24458 49.3%
Lab 12469 25.2%
Con 9660 19.5%
Grn 1859 3.7%
UKIP 587 1.2%
Other 545 1.1%
Maj 11989
I would imagine the most likely scenario is a big swing back to Labour with Stephen Williams holding on by 2000 or so considering he abstained on the tuition fees vote.
I can’t see how an individual abstaining on a vote in 2010 when they had signed a personal pledge to vote against will help them in 2015. I certainly don’t think it will be worth 2000 votes.