Bristol West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10169 (18.37%)
Labour: 15227 (27.51%)
Liberal Democrat: 26593 (48.05%)
UKIP: 655 (1.18%)
Green: 2090 (3.78%)
English Democrat: 270 (0.49%)
Independent: 343 (0.62%)
Majority: 11366 (20.54%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18051 (40.5%)
Labour: 17411 (39%)
Conservative: 6117 (13.7%)
Other: 3010 (6.8%)
Majority: 640 (1.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15429 (26.9%)
Labour: 16859 (29.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 21987 (38.3%)
Green: 2163 (3.8%)
UKIP: 439 (0.8%)
Other: 519 (0.9%)
Majority: 5128 (8.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16040 (28.8%)
Labour: 20505 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 16079 (28.9%)
UKIP: 490 (0.9%)
Green: 1961 (3.5%)
Other: 590 (1.1%)
Majority: 4426 (8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20575 (32.8%)
Labour: 22068 (35.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 17551 (28%)
Referendum: 1304 (2.1%)
Other: 1143 (1.8%)
Majority: 1493 (2.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Stephen Williams(Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Mountain Ash. Educated at Mountain Ash Comprehensive and Bristol University. Chartered tax advisor. Bristol councillor 1993-1999. Contested Bristol South 1997, Bristol West 2001. MP for Bristol West since 2005. Lib Dem shadow heath minister 2005-2006, education since 2006-2007, innovation and universities 2007- (more information at They work for you)
Nick Yarker (Conservative) Educated at Oxford university. Works in an advertising agency. Westminster councillor since 2006.Paul Smith (Labour) born Bristol. Chief Executive of a national furniture re-cycling charity. Former Bristol councillor.Stephen Williams(Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Mountain Ash. Educated at Mountain Ash Comprehensive and Bristol University. Chartered tax advisor. Bristol councillor 1993-1999. Contested Bristol South 1997, Bristol West 2001. MP for Bristol West since 2005. Lib Dem shadow heath minister 2005-2006, education since 2006-2007, innovation and universities 2007- (more information at They work for you)
Ricky Knight (Green) Modern languages teacher. Contested North Devon 2005, South West region 2009 European elections.Chris Lees (UKIP)Jon Baker (English Democrat) Danny Kushlick (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95464
Male: 50.4%
Female: 49.6%
Under 18: 16.8%
Over 60: 12.2%
Born outside UK: 15.3%
White: 84.9%
Black: 5.1%
Asian: 4.9%
Mixed: 3.3%
Other: 1.7%
Christian: 49.6%
Hindu: 0.9%
Muslim: 3.9%
Sikh: 0.8%
Full time students: 19.9%
Graduates 16-74: 42.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 12.9%
Owner-Occupied: 51%
Social Housing: 17.1% (Council: 10.7%, Housing Ass.: 6.3%)
Privately Rented: 27.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.8%
Boundary changes seem to have done for the Tory challenge here for now. It would take a Labour landslide to win it back really, and I’m not sure either Milliband will produce that. Anyone any ideas how much this is likely to be affected by the reduction in seats?
The Green vote held up much better here than it did in many places.
Always hard to say, Tonyotim, as there could be knock-on effects, but Bristol West is a huge constituency in terms of electorate (more than 10% over the old quota) – indeed, it would probably be overweight even on the new quota.
Bristol South is also substantially overweight. Bristol NW is about right now but would need to gain a bit, and Bristol East is substantially underweight.
Overall, Bristol is in theory “entitled” to 4.2 seats and has 4. I suspect the review will leave West and South pretty much as they are (they are also quite geographically “sensible” constituencies as currently drawn) and use the loosening of the rules on crossing authority boundaries to borrow voters from South Gloucestershire as required.
I don’t know either how this seat is likely to be affected by redistribution, but the LibDem vote here is now sufficient that they will probably be all right given any likely changes. In any case, the Bristol area generally now has quite a high LibDem vote. And AV would help the LibDems here too.