Bristol West
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18051 (40.5%)
Labour: 17411 (39%)
Conservative: 6117 (13.7%)
Other: 3010 (6.8%)
Majority: 640 (1.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15429 (26.9%)
Labour: 16859 (29.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 21987 (38.3%)
Green: 2163 (3.8%)
UKIP: 439 (0.8%)
Other: 519 (0.9%)
Majority: 5128 (8.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16040 (28.8%)
Labour: 20505 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 16079 (28.9%)
UKIP: 490 (0.9%)
Green: 1961 (3.5%)
Other: 590 (1.1%)
Majority: 4426 (8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20575 (32.8%)
Labour: 22068 (35.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 17551 (28%)
Referendum: 1304 (2.1%)
Other: 1143 (1.8%)
Majority: 1493 (2.4%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Stephen Williams (Lib Dem) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Paul Smith (Labour) born Bristol. Chief Executive of a national furniture re-cycling charity. Former Bristol councillor.
Nick Yarker (Conservative) Educated at Oxford university. Works in an advertising agency. Westminster councillor since 2006.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95464
Male: 50.4%
Female: 49.6%
Under 18: 16.8%
Over 60: 12.2%
Born outside UK: 15.3%
White: 84.9%
Black: 5.1%
Asian: 4.9%
Mixed: 3.3%
Other: 1.7%
Christian: 49.6%
Hindu: 0.9%
Muslim: 3.9%
Sikh: 0.8%
Full time students: 19.9%
Graduates 16-74: 42.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 12.9%
Owner-Occupied: 51%
Social Housing: 17.1% (Council: 10.7%, Housing Ass.: 6.3%)
Privately Rented: 27.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.8%
I suggest Iain goes and takes a visit to the Lincolnshire CC website where he can get in touch with a bit of reality - Labour losing between half and two thirds of their vote share since 2005 and losing almost every seat they’re defending. Or he could try Bristol. Plenty more tomorrow and I’m sure they will al provide the necessary reality check.
Tamworth is pretty dreadful for Labour as well, losing Watling South for example on a 21% swing.
“Labour losing between half and two thirds of their vote share since 2005″
That is because 2005 when Labour won a massive majority in the commons, and now we are in a mid term election where people kick the government.
When I speak to people on the streets they have a huge respect for Gordon Brown.
Over four years since the last election is a little beyond what most people would define as ‘mid-term’
“The Lib Dems took control of Bristol, while the Tories won power at newly-created Central Bedfordshire Council.”
Iain,
Why are Labour going to regain Bristol West by over 6000 and also hold Bristol North West with an increased majority.
It is only the boundary changes which effectively turn ‘Bristol West’ into ‘Bristol Central’ which will result in Labour with some hope of retaining second place.
The results would indicate that Labour are also ‘toast’ in NW (which will be a contest like the other Labour seats of Watford, Edinburgh South and possibly Aberdeen South between the LD’s and the Conservatives).
Although Labour are far more secure in the other two Bristol seats the likelyhood is that the results there also could be very close.
The results from Wards in Bristol West added up produce the following figures for each party.
Lib Dem 13,145
Green 6,694
Labour 5,063
Conservative 4,971
Respect 264
BNP 236
A sure sign that the Lib Dems will win this seat at the next election.
“When I speak to people on the streets they have a huge respect for Gordon Brown.”
Half the cabinet don’t though.
Euro results for Bristol council:
C - 19.4% (-1.9%)
LD - 18.6% (-2.6%)
Lab - 16.2% (-9.2%)
Green - 15.7% (+4.4%)
UKIP - 13.7% (+0.0%)
BNP - 5.7% (+1.6%)
Thanks Andy that answers two questions I asked on other trheads - firstly whether Labour had infact come fourth in Bristol (and they nearly did) and secondly whether there were any examples of a party topping the poll with less than 20% of the vote.
Iain, this is a straight fight between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives.
The only street where Gordon Brown has respect at the moment is at ‘pre-arranged’ pavement welcomes outside local labour party offices. The Tories organised such an event for John Major in Luton in the 1997 campaign, just to make him feel good.
If Labour doesn’t sort themselves out then they will have no seats in the South West of England at all come June 2010!
Iain, this is a straight fight between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives.
The only street where Gordon Brown has respect at the moment is at ‘pre-arranged’ pavement welcomes outside local labour party offices. The Tories organised such an event for John Major in Luton in the 1997 campaign, just to make him feel good.
If Labour doesn’t sort themselves out then they will have no seats in the South West of England at all come June 2010!
Full Euro results by council area or Welsh constituency:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/table/2009/jun/09/european-elections-elections-2009