Bristol West
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18051 (40.5%)
Labour: 17411 (39%)
Conservative: 6117 (13.7%)
Other: 3010 (6.8%)
Majority: 640 (1.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15429 (26.9%)
Labour: 16859 (29.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 21987 (38.3%)
Green: 2163 (3.8%)
UKIP: 439 (0.8%)
Other: 519 (0.9%)
Majority: 5128 (8.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16040 (28.8%)
Labour: 20505 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 16079 (28.9%)
UKIP: 490 (0.9%)
Green: 1961 (3.5%)
Other: 590 (1.1%)
Majority: 4426 (8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20575 (32.8%)
Labour: 22068 (35.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 17551 (28%)
Referendum: 1304 (2.1%)
Other: 1143 (1.8%)
Majority: 1493 (2.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Stephen Williams(Lib Dem) Born 1966, Mountain Ash. Educated at Mountain Ash Comprehensive and Bristol University. Chartered tax advisor. Bristol councillor 1993-1999. Contested Bristol South 1997, Bristol West 2001. MP for Bristol West since 2005. Lib Dem shadow heath minister 2005-2006, education since 2006-2007, innovation and universities 2007- (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Nick Yarker (Conservative) Educated at Oxford university. Works in an advertising agency. Westminster councillor since 2006.Paul Smith (Labour) born Bristol. Chief Executive of a national furniture re-cycling charity. Former Bristol councillor.Stephen Williams(Lib Dem) Born 1966, Mountain Ash. Educated at Mountain Ash Comprehensive and Bristol University. Chartered tax advisor. Bristol councillor 1993-1999. Contested Bristol South 1997, Bristol West 2001. MP for Bristol West since 2005. Lib Dem shadow heath minister 2005-2006, education since 2006-2007, innovation and universities 2007- (more information at They work for you)
Ricky Knight (Green) Modern languages teacher. Contested North Devon 2005, South West region 2009 European elections.Chris Lees (UKIP)John Baker (English Democrat)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 95464
Male: 50.4%
Female: 49.6%
Under 18: 16.8%
Over 60: 12.2%
Born outside UK: 15.3%
White: 84.9%
Black: 5.1%
Asian: 4.9%
Mixed: 3.3%
Other: 1.7%
Christian: 49.6%
Hindu: 0.9%
Muslim: 3.9%
Sikh: 0.8%
Full time students: 19.9%
Graduates 16-74: 42.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 12.9%
Owner-Occupied: 51%
Social Housing: 17.1% (Council: 10.7%, Housing Ass.: 6.3%)
Privately Rented: 27.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.8%
The LDs will probably increase their majority here somewhat, even if the Greens and the Tories improve somewhat.
(In many other areas I think Labour can achieve net swings from the LDs).
greens claim seat is a four horse race – explanation why it isn’t
http://bristolwestpaul.wordpress.com/2009/12/14/four-horsemen/
Although the Greens came second here in the June elections, I can’t see them translating that into a general Election result. Saying that, I don’t think this is a race at all – Stephen Williams will hold on easily here – Labour may even slip to 3rd, although local election results show out of 18 seats, 16 are LibDem and 2 are Labour on the new boundaries.
a LibDem hold I would have said, unless they see their % fall faster than Labour.
Sorry, but I’m Scottish, so I may be wrong, its just the LibDems up here are really doing badly, 12% average in polls kind of stuff..but I thought the council elections would have fed into the idea that Bristol was the great new hope for LibDems?
A punt
LD 38/39, Lab 33/34, Con 17/18, Green 8/9, UKIP 1
I doubt if anyone will come close to the Lib Dem’s Labour’s vote has been shrinking and the Green’s growing in both Euro and local elections since 2005 in the area.
Paul Smith has also lost the goodwill of the labour party machine for his recent (quite reasonable) critical comments. Labour will instead throw its weight behind its existing MPs, the decent Roger Berry and the mediocre Kerry McCarthy and awful Primarolo.
I’d say LD 38% Lab 28% Con 18% Green 15% others 1%
the view of the local magazine Venue on the seat
http://bristolwestpaul.wordpress.com/2010/01/06/look-here/
Also some evidence that the Lib Dems (probably) are running a poll in the seat – at least 2 labour members have reported to me being polled.
Mr Smith being the Labour PPC for the seat.
Electoral Calculus currently has:-
LIbDem 34.48%
Lab 28.69%
C 25.11%
Other 11.71%
Compared to recent posts, this has the Tories much closer, and indeed with a sufficient chance of winning the seat to deter tactical voting. And my understanding is that in Bristol generally people are prepared to switch between all three major parties.
The link Paul Smith has provided us with kindly tells us that the Green candidates is Ricky Knight from North Devon. Can we have some biographical details, and also information as to whether there will be a UKIP candidate, or any other minor party candidate.
The Greens are very optimistic if they think they can turn this seat into a genuilnely four way contest. However, they should certainly hope to save their deposit, and if they attract considerable votes it could affect the result.
The LibDems will be helped by an incumbency effect, even with boundary changes (which make the result less predictable) and are clearly favourites. However, I think Shadsy’s 1/5 last October was stingy, and indeed if you are a politics betting person 7/1 for either of the other major parties seems to me worth considering.
Worth repeating the aggregate votes from last years council elections in the wards making up this seat .
LibDems 8 wards Labour 1 ( by just 9 votes )
LibDem 13145 43.2%
Labour… 5083 16.7%
Conser… 4971 16.4%
Greens… 6694 22.0%
Others…… 500 1.7%
The Greens may well make it a 3 horse race for 2nd place though I expect as in 2005 they will lose about 1/2 their support to Labour and LibDems
Frederic… I don’t rely on ‘Electoral calculus’ for any kind of realistic prediction.. from what I can see they just apply the national ’swings’ to last times results… I think thats the only explanation for the high conservative figure
You’d be right there Chris – Electoral Calculus is a very blunt tool indeed.
Also, it seems to me that Electoral calculus cannot appreciate the arithmetic in Multi member wards when two or more members are to be elected at one election.