Bristol South
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20778 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9636 (22.8%)
Conservative: 8466 (20%)
Other: 3448 (8.1%)
Majority: 11142 (26.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8466 (20%)
Labour: 20778 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9636 (22.8%)
Green: 2127 (5%)
UKIP: 1321 (3.1%)
Majority: 11142 (26.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9118 (22.3%)
Labour: 23299 (56.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6078 (14.8%)
UKIP: 496 (1.2%)
Green: 1233 (3%)
Other: 746 (1.8%)
Majority: 14181 (34.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10562 (21.2%)
Labour: 29890 (59.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6691 (13.4%)
Referendum: 1486 (3%)
Other: 1230 (2.5%)
Majority: 19328 (38.8%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Dawn Primarolo(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Mark Lloyd Davies (Conservative) Educated at Royal Holloway and the University of Amsterdam. Government affairs manager for a pharmaceutical company and former Conservative Research department health advisor. Mark Wright (Liberal Democrat) Software engineer. Bristol city councillor.Cath Slade (Green)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 99495
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 23.5%
Over 60: 20.5%
Born outside UK: 4.4%
White: 95.7%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 1.5%
Mixed: 1.5%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 65.3%
Muslim: 1.1%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 14.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 36%
Owner-Occupied: 64.1%
Social Housing: 25.4% (Council: 21.2%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 6.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.1%
think they will get some increases (like they did in 1979 and 1992).
Bristol is an area where they have done well locally and given the Tory performance
remains spotty there, I’m allowing for some increase here.
But as Pete says, I do tend to think seats where both the Tories and Lib Dems
are quite a long way behind Labour, with neither particularly stronger than the other,
will see the standard natioanal or regional swing.
On the Bishop Auckland thread Mark Senior tried to imply that anyone who predicted, on my logic above,
that the Tories would regain second place, was some blithering idiot,
but here in Bristol I am allowing for some knock on from LD local successes.
The most recent local elections in Bristol, when the LDs took control included none of the wards in this constituency. Because Bristol has 2-member wards but elects by thirds this area has not had local elections since 2007 with the other seats in those wards having been up in 2006 (and therefore sude up in 2010). The local elections results since the 2005 general election certainly do not show a LD advance in this part of Bristol:
2003
LD 8529 32.1%
Lab 7879 29.7%
Con 5975 22.5%
Grn 2025 7.6%
Oth 2156 8.1%
2006
Lab 9551 34.7%
LD 7489 27.2%
Con 6070 22.1%
Grn 4394 16.0%
2007
Lab 9642 35.6%
Con 6608 24.4%
LD 5950 22.0%
Grn 4154 15.3%
Oth 737 2.7%
Thanks for these figures Pete – they are useful.
They show the Tories have kept the LDs in check somewhat better than I thought.
I suppose we don’t know what would have happened in 2008/9 as you say,
if Labour had retreated several points more and who would have benefited.
Probably not a great deal in the margin between second and third, with Labour holding on fairly comfortably .