Bristol South
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20778 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9636 (22.8%)
Conservative: 8466 (20%)
Other: 3448 (8.1%)
Majority: 11142 (26.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8466 (20%)
Labour: 20778 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9636 (22.8%)
Green: 2127 (5%)
UKIP: 1321 (3.1%)
Majority: 11142 (26.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9118 (22.3%)
Labour: 23299 (56.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6078 (14.8%)
UKIP: 496 (1.2%)
Green: 1233 (3%)
Other: 746 (1.8%)
Majority: 14181 (34.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10562 (21.2%)
Labour: 29890 (59.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6691 (13.4%)
Referendum: 1486 (3%)
Other: 1230 (2.5%)
Majority: 19328 (38.8%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Dawn Primarolo (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Mark Wright (Liberal Democrat) Software engineer. Bristol city councillor.
Mark Lloyd Davies (Conservative) Educated at Royal Holloway and the University of Amsterdam. Government affairs manager for a pharmaceutical company and former Conservative Research department health advisor.
Cath Slade (Green)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 99495
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 23.5%
Over 60: 20.5%
Born outside UK: 4.4%
White: 95.7%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 1.5%
Mixed: 1.5%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 65.3%
Muslim: 1.1%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 14.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 36%
Owner-Occupied: 64.1%
Social Housing: 25.4% (Council: 21.2%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 6.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.1%
People have thought me nearly daft for speculating about this seat. But as we go into the Euroelections things are looking so bad for Labour that it will be worth looking at the results to estimate whether Labour would have held the seat if there had been a General Election on June 4th.
Local reports would be greatly appreciated.
Bristol as a whole will be interesting because in the 2004 Euro elections Labour topped the poll with 24,000 votes, but the Tories and LDs both won 20,000. So it would be surprising if Labour doesn’t come third tomorrow in Bristol. I agree that some local knowledge would be interesting, regarding the situation in Bristol South itself. It’s a shame the results are reported by local ward or constituency (as they were in 1999) so that we could have a clearer picture.
Bristol has Unitary Authority elections tomorrow - not all wards are up because of the odd way Bristol does local elections but there must be some in this constituency that we can make a decent extrapolation from.
Were either or both of Labour’s council seat “holds” in Bristol last night in this seat? And how many council seats did they lose here?
They lost 8 seats, 4 each to the LDs and Tories.
St George West is in Bristol East. Labour held it by 91 votes over the LDs.
Lawrence Hill is being moved from Bristol East to Bristol West. Labour held it by 9 votes over the LDs.
Thanks, Andy.
How many seats did Labour lose that are in Bristol South? or weren’t the ones here up for election.
It does not look good news for Labour in Bristol, although I have pointed out for Bristol East the Tories, rather than Others, are not doing well either, which may save Labour next year.
On the Boundary Commission’s website it says that the new Bristol South seat will consists of these 9 wards:
Bedminster, Bishopsworth, Filwood, Hartcliffe, Hengrove, Knowle, Southville, Whitchurch Park, Windmill Hill.
The problem is those wards have been changed because of Bristol becoming a unitary authority. I don’t know which of the new wards comprise the new Bristol South seat.
The 8 Labour losses yesterday were in: Avonmouth, Frome Vale, Henbury, Hillfields, Horfield, Kingsweston, Southmead, St George East.
Looking at the map of wards on the Bristol council website, it looks like none of those 8 losses were in Bristol South. I could be mistaken though.
None of the wards comprising Bristol South voted yesterday in the local elections
Andy there have not been any ward boundary changes. The seats fought yesterday are the same as those fought in 2005. Bristol became a unitary authority back in 1995.
I see a few people suggesting that a Tory 2nd place is likely here. That is daft - you only have to see the swathe of Lib Dem dominance across the whole eastern half of the seat to know that the LDs will do well here. The green voters in Southville will mostly vote tactically LD in a GE (actually most of them are already LD but vote Green tactically in local elections to keep out Labour!)
As can be seen from the 2009 local election results, the LDs now have a majority on the council which will give them considerably more credibility as the main opposition to Labour in all seats except Bristol Northwest.
MBoy. The recent elections suggest that there is as much an “anybody but Labour” vote as one that is in favour of the other parties. So the question is as to whether the LibDems can build on their City Council victory, and strength in this seat for local elections, to build a high profile in this seat as the only plausible challenger. One issue is that this would require hard work by them, and they have other nearby targets in Bristol and surrounding areas.
This seat has a majority not dissimilar to Ashfield in Nottinghamshire, for which local posts suggest that the LibDems are challenging hard to take the seat, currently held by Geoff Hoon, from third place. But here, as in Ashfield, the LibDems will have to encourage a very large number of former Tory electors to vote tactically if they are to succeed.
If the LibDems do not work the seat hard, it is quite plausible that a national swing to the Tories could take the Conservatives to second place. Thre is plenty of history of seats where many voters go LibDem locally and Tory nationally.
The bottom line, though, is that Labour are the favourities, although not certainties, to hold on.