Comments on: Bristol North West

By: cabotmember

cabotmember — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 15:15:30 +0000

Both the Kingsweston ward councillors are Liberal Democrats. The first was elected in 2009 and the second in 2010.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 23:26:30 +0000

Sorry I meant to say more Labour inclined than the 1997-2010 seat,
but not the current Bristol NW.

Patchway – a bit hard to tell.
It looks similar to the estates in Bristol South,
which are fairly spacious.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 19:44:47 +0000

The 1983-97 version was less Labour inclined as it included Westbury on Trym. It became a notional Labour seat on 1992 figures as that ward was removed and Patchway was added. I guess it woould have been well over 50% (1981 figures) on the new boundaries as Westbury has virtually no council housing whereas Patchway has quite a lot (I was looking at it on Google maps the other day when we were discussing it – its a pretty grotty looking area)

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 18:48:29 +0000

The Bristol North West seat of 1983-1997 (I think fairly like the one in 1997-2010 – although more Labour inclined)

had 50% local authority housing in 1981.
That may have shrunk but it does show this relatively strong Tory seat at that time should have been more marginal than it was before 1992.

There are some quite large estates, in attractive settings – for example coming down the hill from Stoke Bishop as the Gorge fades out into Shirehampton.

Kingsweaston is a Labour ward.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 21:43:13 +0000

No you were right the first time. It became a single ward in 1995 and Labour won all three seats. The LDs gained one of these in 1999 with a candidate who had previously won one of the smaller wards in 1991and then won all three seats from 2003. Of these one then was Labour, one Conservative and one split Lab/LD.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 13:16:03 +0000

sorry it was different wards before as Pete says
but the point is the same

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 13:15:23 +0000

I wonder when the LDs first one Patchway,
I’ll check when I have more time.
Labour surely must have won it in 1995
and in the 1992 GE it surely split between Con and Lab
- perhaps Labour ahead.

So I guess it’s basically a Labour area which started voting Lib Dem locally in 1999 or 2003
as 2007 wasn’t a notably good LD year so it suggests if they won it in 2007 they’d won it before.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 13:08:03 +0000

I assumed it was more in Northavon than Bristol North West

but the more Tory part of Northavon
as Thornbury and Yate had an even bigger notional majority
but my detail is not up to your standards – or anywhere near,
It would be good to have some local input on this aswell.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 11:51:53 +0000

I’ve never been quite able to ascertain which seat Bradley Stoke was in before 2010. I think it may in fact have been split as their were not Bradley Stoke wards when the previous constituencies were drawn up in 1995. I had always assumed it was in Northavon but think some may have been in Bristol NW. Does anyone know which ward(s) contained Bradley Stoke before the area got it’s own wards?

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 11:22:54 +0000

2007 result in Patchway

Patchway (3)

Jan Woodley LD 833 37.2%
Kenneth Dando LD 818
Kenneth Graupner LD 696
Eve Orpen Lab 662 29.6%
Eric Gordon Lab 649
Ian Scott Lab 568
Nicholas Webb C 396 17.7%
Anthony Kwan C 393
Christopher Woods C 353
David Scott BNP 349 15.6%

I hadn’t seen the 2011 result. Good for Labour but also good for the Tories. I suspect it must have been pretty close three ways in 2010, but with Labour certainly ahead. Labour would have carried Filton too I susepct, but the Tories well ahead in Stoke Gifford