The UKPollingReport election guide for 2010 has now been archived and all comments will shortly be closed. The new Election Guide for the 2015 election is now online at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide. The old site is archived at the UK Web Archive.
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Bristol North West

2010 Results:
Conservative: 19115 (37.97%)
Labour: 13059 (25.94%)
Liberal Democrat: 15841 (31.47%)
UKIP: 1175 (2.33%)
Green: 511 (1.02%)
English Democrat: 635 (1.26%)
Majority: 3274 (6.5%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18671 (36.5%)
Conservative: 17596 (34.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 12423 (24.3%)
Other: 2468 (4.8%)
Majority: 1075 (2.1%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13230 (27.9%)
Labour: 22192 (46.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 9545 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1132 (2.4%)
Other: 1393 (2.9%)
Majority: 8962 (18.9%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 13349 (28.6%)
Labour: 24436 (52.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7387 (15.8%)
UKIP: 1149 (2.5%)
Other: 371 (0.8%)
Majority: 11087 (23.7%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 16193 (29.3%)
Labour: 27575 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7263 (13.1%)
Referendum: 1609 (2.9%)
Other: 2605 (4.7%)
Majority: 11382 (20.6%)

Boundary changes:

Profile: Bristol North-West has regularly swapped hands between Labour and the Conservatives, though became heavily Labour after 1997 through a combination of the Blair landslide and unfavourable boundary changes. The new boundaries rob it the parts of South Gloucestershire that it used to contain, but return some of the richer Conservative suburbs of Bristol, most notable Westbury-on-Trym, which had been lost to Bristol West in the previous round of boundary changes. The more affluent areas like Westbury and Stoke Bishop are balanced out by council estates like Southmead and Lockleaze and the heavy industry and manufacturing out at the Avonmouth Docks, making this a classic marginal.

portraitCurrent MP: Charlotte Leslie (Conservative) born 1978. Policy advisor to David Willetts MP.

2010 election candidates:
portraitCharlotte Leslie (Conservative) born 1978. Policy advisor to David Willetts MP.
portraitSam Townend (Labour) born Hackney. Educated at cambrige university. Barrister, specialising in construction and engineering disputes. Contested Reigate 2005.
portraitPaul Harrod (Liberal Democrat) born 1976. Founded the charity Aspire and now works for Bristol university.
portraitAlex Dunn (Green)
portraitRobert Upton (UKIP)
portraitRay Carr (English Democrat)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 96349
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 23%
Over 60: 22.3%
Born outside UK: 7.7%
White: 93.5%
Black: 1.4%
Asian: 2.2%
Mixed: 1.9%
Other: 1%
Christian: 66.7%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1.3%
Full time students: 8.3%
Graduates 16-74: 23.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.9%
Owner-Occupied: 65.4%
Social Housing: 24.9% (Council: 22.6%, Housing Ass.: 2.3%)
Privately Rented: 5.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide