Bristol North West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 19115 (37.97%)
Labour: 13059 (25.94%)
Liberal Democrat: 15841 (31.47%)
UKIP: 1175 (2.33%)
Green: 511 (1.02%)
English Democrat: 635 (1.26%)
Majority: 3274 (6.5%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18671 (36.5%)
Conservative: 17596 (34.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 12423 (24.3%)
Other: 2468 (4.8%)
Majority: 1075 (2.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13230 (27.9%)
Labour: 22192 (46.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 9545 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1132 (2.4%)
Other: 1393 (2.9%)
Majority: 8962 (18.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13349 (28.6%)
Labour: 24436 (52.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7387 (15.8%)
UKIP: 1149 (2.5%)
Other: 371 (0.8%)
Majority: 11087 (23.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16193 (29.3%)
Labour: 27575 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7263 (13.1%)
Referendum: 1609 (2.9%)
Other: 2605 (4.7%)
Majority: 11382 (20.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: Bristol North-West has regularly swapped hands between Labour and the Conservatives, though became heavily Labour after 1997 through a combination of the Blair landslide and unfavourable boundary changes. The new boundaries rob it the parts of South Gloucestershire that it used to contain, but return some of the richer Conservative suburbs of Bristol, most notable Westbury-on-Trym, which had been lost to Bristol West in the previous round of boundary changes. The more affluent areas like Westbury and Stoke Bishop are balanced out by council estates like Southmead and Lockleaze and the heavy industry and manufacturing out at the Avonmouth Docks, making this a classic marginal.
Current MP: Charlotte Leslie (Conservative) born 1978. Policy advisor to David Willetts MP.
Charlotte Leslie (Conservative) born 1978. Policy advisor to David Willetts MP.Sam Townend (Labour) born Hackney. Educated at cambrige university. Barrister, specialising in construction and engineering disputes. Contested Reigate 2005.Paul Harrod (Liberal Democrat) born 1976. Founded the charity Aspire and now works for Bristol university.
Alex Dunn (Green) Robert Upton (UKIP) Ray Carr (English Democrat) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96349
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 23%
Over 60: 22.3%
Born outside UK: 7.7%
White: 93.5%
Black: 1.4%
Asian: 2.2%
Mixed: 1.9%
Other: 1%
Christian: 66.7%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1.3%
Full time students: 8.3%
Graduates 16-74: 23.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.9%
Owner-Occupied: 65.4%
Social Housing: 24.9% (Council: 22.6%, Housing Ass.: 2.3%)
Privately Rented: 5.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
I’ve had a go at a notional result – fairly back of the envelope. The difficulty here is that for the then Bristol NW, there were never local elections on the same day in the South Glos wards and the Bristol wards. The Bristol West wards are easy to figure out because they all voted in local elections on the same day as the general election in 2005.
I get a Labour majority of about 1,700 or 4% which is about mid way between the figures here and the T&R figures. Percentage wise Lab 36% Con 32% LD 27%
No major disagreement really, but would imply a larger Conservative increase
Thanks for this Pete,
I’ve got to know this area a bit.
It seems that Bristol City as a whole is still pretty feeble for the Tories – behind Labour and the Lib Dems, so it did make me wonder whether we had gained this seat largely by default (Lab>LD swing)
or whether this seat has different characteristics.
I’d say it does have different characteristics – Stoke Bishop is very nice, and more settled than Clitfon which is LD,
but Avonmouth I’d guess is WWC and very different anyway.
Boundary changes do seem a difficult to work out in this area as you say,
the 1997 result, although a shattering defeat for the Tories ,
showed a low swing compared to 1992 (when there was a relatively high swing).
Perhaps the incumbency effect also saw a few votes from Michael Stern disappear in 2001, and Doug Naysmith win some across.
The Labour vote held up well until the disastrous result in 2010.
I guess the Tories will now be able to see off any Lib Dem threat, but never asssume, and in any case, Labour could re-emerge as a threat in the area.
Hi Pete,
Do you know how the old Bristol North West (2005 version) would have voted in 2010?
Thanks
Lab 37
C 32
LD 27
?
very rough
“I guess the Tories will now be able to see off any Lib Dem threat, but never asssume, and in any case, Labour could re-emerge as a threat in the area.”
On current polling, this is the kind of area that Labour may have its best chance of a good result, as they have a big LibDem vote to chomp away at. This is sharp contrast to Feltham and Heston where there is a much smaller LibDem vote and I reckon the swing will be relatively small in the by-election.
The polls could, and probably will, change a lot in three and a half years though.
I think the tories will most likely hold on here by 1500 or so but with Labour in 2nd although if Labour wins the election they could maybe win it.
They appear to be starting selection for this seat soon but they are also doing that for Bristol W as well so they’ll have to spread their resources carefully.
“Hi Pete,
Do you know how the old Bristol North West (2005 version) would have voted in 2010?
Thanks
Lab 37
C 32
LD 27
?
very rough”
I’m not sure. If you take the local election results in this seat on the same day as the GE, the relative positions of Conservative and Labour were the same – the Conservatives were about 6,000 votes and 12% ahead (the shares of both parties were a couple of points lower to the benefit of the LDs and others). If you remove the three wards which were previously in Bristol West then Labour are ahead of the Conservatives by about 1,300 votes or 4%. So the question is how the large part of the old seat which is in South Gloucestershire would have voted. Filton and Patchway tend to be Labour leaning – Stoke Gifford and Bradley Stoke more Tory (I realise I’m ignoring the LDs here, but i’m interestd in the relattive Lab/Con situation). Intuitively one feels the Conservatives would have been ahead int his area, looking at the overall result in Filton & Bradley Stoke, though not by much (most of the Tory majority would have come from elsewhere i that seat). So I think it might have been Labour by not more than about 1,000. But its also guesswork. I should get around to working out propoer notional ward results for the whole of ‘Avon’ one of these days as its an interesting area. The constant ward boundary changes in South Gloucestershire put me off a bit in the past
Thanks for this Pete.
It would be very interesting if you did.
I don’t think I’d taken on board how much of the old Bristol North West extended outside the city boundaries.
But it then follows that Labour did extremely well to get so far ahead – it was barely a marginal in 1997-2005.
Patchway looks like it could have some Tory votes, as it’s an outlying estate, but interesting that it’s still Labour leaning probably in 2010.
yes…Patchway is pretty Labour as Pete says, quite a decisive win in 2011
over the Tories.
I’d expect it to be more than one ward actually.
PATCHWAY May 2011
Surname Forenames Party Votes Note
AVENIN Roger The Conservative Party Candidate 585
DANDO Ken Liberal Democrat Focus Team 538
HORTON Charles Edward Independent 232
MESSENGER Ros The Conservative Party Candidate 657
ORPEN Eve The Labour Party Candidate 997 ELECTED
SCOTT Sam William The Labour Party Candidate 911 ELECTED
SINGLETON Clare Michelle Liberal Democrat Focus Team 479
TAYLOR Allan Martin The Conservative Party Candidate 662
WALKER Keith The Labour Party Candidate 950 ELECTED
WOODLEY Jan Liberal Democrat Focus Team 493
It used, IIRC, to have three wards on the old Northavon district council but these were merged on the creation of South Gloucestershire (which merged that authority with Kingswood)
3 small wards then in those days.
Interesting that Yate (outside this seat obviously) was a Labour division on Avon County Council.
2007 result in Patchway
Patchway (3)
Jan Woodley LD 833 37.2%
Kenneth Dando LD 818
Kenneth Graupner LD 696
Eve Orpen Lab 662 29.6%
Eric Gordon Lab 649
Ian Scott Lab 568
Nicholas Webb C 396 17.7%
Anthony Kwan C 393
Christopher Woods C 353
David Scott BNP 349 15.6%
I hadn’t seen the 2011 result. Good for Labour but also good for the Tories. I suspect it must have been pretty close three ways in 2010, but with Labour certainly ahead. Labour would have carried Filton too I susepct, but the Tories well ahead in Stoke Gifford
I’ve never been quite able to ascertain which seat Bradley Stoke was in before 2010. I think it may in fact have been split as their were not Bradley Stoke wards when the previous constituencies were drawn up in 1995. I had always assumed it was in Northavon but think some may have been in Bristol NW. Does anyone know which ward(s) contained Bradley Stoke before the area got it’s own wards?
I assumed it was more in Northavon than Bristol North West
but the more Tory part of Northavon
as Thornbury and Yate had an even bigger notional majority
but my detail is not up to your standards – or anywhere near,
It would be good to have some local input on this aswell.
I wonder when the LDs first one Patchway,
I’ll check when I have more time.
Labour surely must have won it in 1995
and in the 1992 GE it surely split between Con and Lab
- perhaps Labour ahead.
So I guess it’s basically a Labour area which started voting Lib Dem locally in 1999 or 2003
as 2007 wasn’t a notably good LD year so it suggests if they won it in 2007 they’d won it before.
sorry it was different wards before as Pete says
but the point is the same
No you were right the first time. It became a single ward in 1995 and Labour won all three seats. The LDs gained one of these in 1999 with a candidate who had previously won one of the smaller wards in 1991and then won all three seats from 2003. Of these one then was Labour, one Conservative and one split Lab/LD.
The Bristol North West seat of 1983-1997 (I think fairly like the one in 1997-2010 – although more Labour inclined)
had 50% local authority housing in 1981.
That may have shrunk but it does show this relatively strong Tory seat at that time should have been more marginal than it was before 1992.
There are some quite large estates, in attractive settings – for example coming down the hill from Stoke Bishop as the Gorge fades out into Shirehampton.
Kingsweaston is a Labour ward.
The 1983-97 version was less Labour inclined as it included Westbury on Trym. It became a notional Labour seat on 1992 figures as that ward was removed and Patchway was added. I guess it woould have been well over 50% (1981 figures) on the new boundaries as Westbury has virtually no council housing whereas Patchway has quite a lot (I was looking at it on Google maps the other day when we were discussing it – its a pretty grotty looking area)
Sorry I meant to say more Labour inclined than the 1997-2010 seat,
but not the current Bristol NW.
Patchway – a bit hard to tell.
It looks similar to the estates in Bristol South,
which are fairly spacious.
Both the Kingsweston ward councillors are Liberal Democrats. The first was elected in 2009 and the second in 2010.