Bristol North West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 19115 (37.97%)
Labour: 13059 (25.94%)
Liberal Democrat: 15841 (31.47%)
UKIP: 1175 (2.33%)
Green: 511 (1.02%)
English Democrat: 635 (1.26%)
Majority: 3274 (6.5%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18671 (36.5%)
Conservative: 17596 (34.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 12423 (24.3%)
Other: 2468 (4.8%)
Majority: 1075 (2.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13230 (27.9%)
Labour: 22192 (46.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 9545 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1132 (2.4%)
Other: 1393 (2.9%)
Majority: 8962 (18.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13349 (28.6%)
Labour: 24436 (52.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7387 (15.8%)
UKIP: 1149 (2.5%)
Other: 371 (0.8%)
Majority: 11087 (23.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16193 (29.3%)
Labour: 27575 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7263 (13.1%)
Referendum: 1609 (2.9%)
Other: 2605 (4.7%)
Majority: 11382 (20.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: Bristol North-West has regularly swapped hands between Labour and the Conservatives, though became heavily Labour after 1997 through a combination of the Blair landslide and unfavourable boundary changes. The new boundaries rob it the parts of South Gloucestershire that it used to contain, but return some of the richer Conservative suburbs of Bristol, most notable Westbury-on-Trym, which had been lost to Bristol West in the previous round of boundary changes. The more affluent areas like Westbury and Stoke Bishop are balanced out by council estates like Southmead and Lockleaze and the heavy industry and manufacturing out at the Avonmouth Docks, making this a classic marginal.
Current MP: Charlotte Leslie (Conservative) born 1978. Policy advisor to David Willetts MP.
Charlotte Leslie (Conservative) born 1978. Policy advisor to David Willetts MP.Sam Townend (Labour) born Hackney. Educated at cambrige university. Barrister, specialising in construction and engineering disputes. Contested Reigate 2005.Paul Harrod (Liberal Democrat) born 1976. Founded the charity Aspire and now works for Bristol university.
Alex Dunn (Green) Robert Upton (UKIP) Ray Carr (English Democrat) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96349
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 23%
Over 60: 22.3%
Born outside UK: 7.7%
White: 93.5%
Black: 1.4%
Asian: 2.2%
Mixed: 1.9%
Other: 1%
Christian: 66.7%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1.3%
Full time students: 8.3%
Graduates 16-74: 23.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.9%
Owner-Occupied: 65.4%
Social Housing: 24.9% (Council: 22.6%, Housing Ass.: 2.3%)
Privately Rented: 5.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
Although I can see LDs getting 30%, I believe Conservatives will take this one
Agree with the above.
Cons gain by 3k I reckon.
A lot has changed walking around campaigning I’ve seen 10-fold more Lib Dem posters, signs etc.. than other parties.
I’m sure it will be yellow.
Observer poll confirms Lib Dems are the challengers and can win if a few more Labour supporters can be persuaded to switch.
The Observer poll confirms nothing of the sort.
CON GAIN
Observer highlighted 40 seats expected to be Tory Lab marginals now ‘vulnerable to a Lib Dem assault’. Bristol NW is 5th on that list. Lib Dems are clearly the challengers here, evidenced by by far the most impressive campaign, strong local results in 2009 and every bookie shorting their odds to make Lib Dems clear 2nd favourites behind the Tories. If few more former Labour supporters can be persuaded to switch to Lib Dem then Lib Dems will win here.
I think the best the LD’s can claim here is it might be a three way marginal, but with so many other targets or held seats in the area I doubt it will get many regional volunteers
Agreed there are far more Lib dem posters and boards out than anyone else’s and that making people think Lib dems can win so they might switch votes. I am Voting Lib dem for the first time for sure to try keep the Cons out. Lib dems have far out campaigned everyone else in this area too ive had at least one piece of post or something dropped in my mail box every day this week. All I have had from the cons is letters from London with David Cameron not even the candidate on them. On a personal note Paul Harrod Lib Dem a local candidate who appears to be putting in the most effort, getting my vote for sure. Labour is a wasted vote here anyone looking in who want to keep the Cons out vote Lib dem.
‘Chris in the North’
You must be – as my Bristol friends tell me that regional volunteers are pouring into the Lib Dem HQ here. The Lib Dems have delivered the entire constituency three times in the past week.
However the Labour party have mounted a bit of a fightback – and seem to be doing just about enough to confuse voters as to who is the real challenger to the Tories.
My gut feel is that Labour will do enough to ensure that Bristol North West is won by the Conservatives.
Con: 38%
LD: 35%
Lab: 20%
Others: 7%
Con gain by about 2400 here I would be saying. Libs in second place easily.
wow you’re not a bad tipster Mr Brown. Majority slightly higher though.
Previous MP Doug Naysmith won Avonmouth on Bristol Council after a toss of a coin decided a tied result with the Conservatives.
that says a lot – for Labour to be tied in Avonmouth with such a high-profile candidate is a very poor result.
Which seats have included Westbury-on-Trym?
“that says a lot – for Labour to be tied in Avonmouth with such a high-profile candidate is a very poor result.”
They were both high profile candidates in fairness. Spud Murphy has been on the scene a long time, consistently outpolls his party and pulled in nearly 50% last time he stood. I would think Labour won in this ward at the General Election – not by as much as they would have liked, but by a fair margin.