Bristol North West
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18671 (36.5%)
Conservative: 17596 (34.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 12423 (24.3%)
Other: 2468 (4.8%)
Majority: 1075 (2.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13230 (27.9%)
Labour: 22192 (46.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 9545 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1132 (2.4%)
Other: 1393 (2.9%)
Majority: 8962 (18.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13349 (28.6%)
Labour: 24436 (52.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7387 (15.8%)
UKIP: 1149 (2.5%)
Other: 371 (0.8%)
Majority: 11087 (23.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16193 (29.3%)
Labour: 27575 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7263 (13.1%)
Referendum: 1609 (2.9%)
Other: 2605 (4.7%)
Majority: 11382 (20.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: Bristol North-West has regularly swapped hands between Labour and the Conservatives, though became heavily Labour after 1997 through a combination of the Blair landslide and unfavourable boundary changes. The new boundaries rob it the parts of South Gloucestershire that it used to contain, but return some of the richer Conservative suburbs of Bristol, most notable Westbury-on-Trym, which had been lost to Bristol West in the previous round of boundary changes. The more affluent areas like Westbury and Stoke Bishop are balanced out by council estates like Southmead and Lockleaze and the heavy industry and manufacturing out at the Avonmouth Docks, making this a classic marginal.
Current MP: Doug Naysmith(Labour) born 1941, Musselburgh. Educated at George Heriots School and Edinburgh University. Former research immunologist and lecturer. Contested Bristol in 1979 European elections. Bristol councillor 1981-1998. Contested Cirencester and Tewkesbury 1987, Bristol North West 1992. First elected as MP for Bristol North West 1997. He will step down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Charlotte Leslie (Conservative) born 1978. Policy advisor to David Willetts MP.Sam Townend (Labour) born Hackney. Educated at cambrige university. Barrister, specialising in construction and engineering disputes. Contested Reigate 2005.Paul Harrod (Liberal Democrat) born 1976. Founded the charity Aspire and now works for Bristol university.Raymond Carr (English Democrat) Contested South West region in 2009 European elections.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96349
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 23%
Over 60: 22.3%
Born outside UK: 7.7%
White: 93.5%
Black: 1.4%
Asian: 2.2%
Mixed: 1.9%
Other: 1%
Christian: 66.7%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1.3%
Full time students: 8.3%
Graduates 16-74: 23.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.9%
Owner-Occupied: 65.4%
Social Housing: 24.9% (Council: 22.6%, Housing Ass.: 2.3%)
Privately Rented: 5.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
Good to see Labour still just showing in Bridgwater, and whatever opposition to them being Tories.
I think that should be a pretty strong Tory seat next time.
I was on holiday there recently just as Somerset turned blue, and people talk quite disparagingly about Bridgwater town – I’m curious, must go and have a look.
(The LDs have been kept out of Bridgwater by the Labour strength there. And anyway, for democracy, good to have some opposition from the main opponent nationally down in the SW).
I’m guessing that Henleaze was once quite safe Conservative territory once?
Maybe the party will gain a seat in the ward at next year’s elections.
Ladbrokes:
Con 1/16
Lab 8/1
LD 16/1
Conservative: 22000
Labour: 16500
Liberal Democrat: 10500
Other: 2000
Majority: 5500
Phil – Henleaze was indeed once safe Tory. An exceptionally strong husband and wife team (the Browns) changed that during the Tory nadir and it was safe Lib Dem for a while. They retired in 2006 and 2009 and it appears to have reverted to a somewhat closer fight.
However, the Tories might well have missed their best chances to reclaim the territory in the switchover elections – Clare Campion-Smith who won in 2006 is a strong councillor and will probably win with Tory resources focussed on holding their remaining Horfield councillor (a losing battle I suspect). The demographics have also changed since the Tory heyday here as young professionals and families have migrated from the Lib Dem wards south of the Downs and the ward has started to resemble Cotham/Redland more than Stoke Bishop.
Charlotte Leslie will be the favourite to win Bristol North West in 2010.
PPC News!
Alex Dunn is the Green Party candidate here, the first Green Party candidate ever selected for the Bristol North West constituency.