Comments on: Bristol East

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Mon, 28 Mar 2011 15:43:24 +0000

It looks likely that the LDs will lose control in Bristol, since they only need to lose 3 seats to do so. However they are defending quite substantial majorities in most of them & won’t lose without a serious fight. Not many of the wards won by the LDs will be easy Labour gains, though the party has a good chance in several such as Eastville & perhaps Windmill Hill. Most of the rather few seats defended by the Conservatives should be held but Frome Vale will be a target for Labour. Looks like LD LOSE CONTROL here but remain the largest party.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 22:20:28 +0000

In 1979, Bristol SE was a Labour hold with a high Tory swing, but Kingswood a Con gain on a low swing.

Andy is correct.
In Kingswood, the Tories gained it all over again in 1983, as boundary changes had put it back in the Labour column (1979 notional).

I think the two seats used to be more similar, perhaps no longer.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 20:51:20 +0000

Bristol East and Kingswood seemed to speak with one voice in the 80s and 90s but that no longer would appear to be the case although boundary changes may have had some effect.

(In 2005 the Conservative number of votes was virtually identical to the previous election. In 2010 the same was true with regard to the Conservative share of the vote).

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 18:07:25 +0000

BNP+UKIP+ED = 3817 8.47%
Labour majority = 3722 8.27%

By: BT SAYS...

BT SAYS... — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 14:08:02 +0000

The earlier comments on here about Kerry Mc’s incumbency helping her, being liked etc are nonsense.

Her vote fell by 8.2 %! Not far over the line of the national average for Labour but certainly no sign of a positive incumbency advantage.

The real question is, why did her lost votes go everywhere but the Tories, who didn’t advance at all?

Granted the notionals may have got Tories wrong but one thing is for sure: Labour were still on the decline alright, with 22.5% less of the vote than 1997 (adjusted for boundary changes).

By: Carl

Carl — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 13:50:59 +0000

I think Pete is largely correct. I would add however that there was increased turnout in Bristol East in 2010 and as we all know that disproportionately benefits the Labour Party. It is a pretty working class seat (compared to Bristol West for example) and fears of a Tory government would have got more people out to vote than it did in 2005.

Kerry McCarthy is also quite a well-liked MP. Probably the most popular of the Bristol MPs of any party with her own constituents.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Tue, 18 May 2010 12:55:16 +0000

It doesn’t surprise me that Kingswood would produce a high swing though.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Tue, 18 May 2010 10:59:45 +0000

I think Pete’s analysis is a good one. I’d also point (apologies for the broken record) to Kerry McCarthy’s first-time incumbency as a possible positive factor in Labour’s favour. It may however also be that the constituency doesn’t have as many volatile voters as Kingswood for general demographic resons; they are neighbouring seats which are however very different in characteristics.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Tue, 18 May 2010 10:40:56 +0000

“Were the notionals wrong or was this a bad Conservative performance?”

Given the swing in next door Kingswood was so much larger it is possible, since a significant chunk of that seat was moved into this one. It’s possible that the Tory vote was overestimated in the parts going into this seat and underestimated in Kingswood. Unfortunately there were no local elections in the two wards involved this year but in last years locals they showed the LDs eating into the Tory vote. The LDs did well throughout Bristol carrying the popular vote in the city for the first time since 1922. Also the Conservatives had some issues with their candidate here.
Note also the quite high vote for parties to the right of the Conservatives.
UKIP+BNP+ED = 8.5% compared with 2.7% in 2005

Meanwhile the small parties on the far left got less than in 2005
Green + TUSC = 2.2% compared to 4% in 2005

By: doktorb

doktorb — Tue, 18 May 2010 09:14:46 +0000

[weeps]