Bristol East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12749 (28.32%)
Labour: 16471 (36.59%)
Liberal Democrat: 10993 (24.42%)
BNP: 1960 (4.35%)
UKIP: 1510 (3.35%)
Green: 803 (1.78%)
English Democrat: 347 (0.77%)
TUSC: 184 (0.41%)
Majority: 3722 (8.27%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20047 (44.8%)
Conservative: 12668 (28.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9139 (20.4%)
Other: 2926 (6.5%)
Majority: 7379 (16.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8787 (21.1%)
Labour: 19152 (45.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 10531 (25.2%)
Green: 1586 (3.8%)
UKIP: 1132 (2.7%)
Other: 532 (1.3%)
Majority: 8621 (20.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8788 (21.8%)
Labour: 22180 (55%)
Liberal Democrat: 6915 (17.1%)
UKIP: 572 (1.4%)
Green: 1110 (2.8%)
Other: 769 (1.9%)
Majority: 13392 (33.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11259 (23.4%)
Labour: 27418 (56.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7121 (14.8%)
Referendum: 1479 (3.1%)
Other: 924 (1.9%)
Majority: 16159 (33.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Kerry McCarthy(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Adeela Shafi (Conservative) University lecturer and charity fundraiser. Received a commendation from the Pakistani government in 2007 for raising funds for the victims of the October 2006 earthquake in Pakistan.Kerry McCarthy(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Mike Popham (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Glastonbury. Former RAF Squadron leader. Director of a risk and compliance software company. Former Woking councillor. Bristol councillor since 2007.Glenn Vowles (Green) Philip Collins (UKIP) Brian Jenkins (BNP) Stephen Wright (English Democrat) Rae Lynch (TUSC) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89307
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 22.2%
Over 60: 21.1%
Born outside UK: 5.5%
White: 93.1%
Black: 1.9%
Asian: 2.8%
Mixed: 1.6%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 66.8%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1.7%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 4.4%
Graduates 16-74: 15.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.9%
Owner-Occupied: 72.7%
Social Housing: 16.8% (Council: 13.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.5%)
Privately Rented: 7.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.3%
Were the notionals wrong or was this a bad Conservative performance?
[weeps]
“Were the notionals wrong or was this a bad Conservative performance?”
Given the swing in next door Kingswood was so much larger it is possible, since a significant chunk of that seat was moved into this one. It’s possible that the Tory vote was overestimated in the parts going into this seat and underestimated in Kingswood. Unfortunately there were no local elections in the two wards involved this year but in last years locals they showed the LDs eating into the Tory vote. The LDs did well throughout Bristol carrying the popular vote in the city for the first time since 1922. Also the Conservatives had some issues with their candidate here.
Note also the quite high vote for parties to the right of the Conservatives.
UKIP+BNP+ED = 8.5% compared with 2.7% in 2005
Meanwhile the small parties on the far left got less than in 2005
Green + TUSC = 2.2% compared to 4% in 2005
I think Pete’s analysis is a good one. I’d also point (apologies for the broken record) to Kerry McCarthy’s first-time incumbency as a possible positive factor in Labour’s favour. It may however also be that the constituency doesn’t have as many volatile voters as Kingswood for general demographic resons; they are neighbouring seats which are however very different in characteristics.
It doesn’t surprise me that Kingswood would produce a high swing though.