Bristol East
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20047 (44.8%)
Conservative: 12668 (28.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9139 (20.4%)
Other: 2926 (6.5%)
Majority: 7379 (16.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8787 (21.1%)
Labour: 19152 (45.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 10531 (25.2%)
Green: 1586 (3.8%)
UKIP: 1132 (2.7%)
Other: 532 (1.3%)
Majority: 8621 (20.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8788 (21.8%)
Labour: 22180 (55%)
Liberal Democrat: 6915 (17.1%)
UKIP: 572 (1.4%)
Green: 1110 (2.8%)
Other: 769 (1.9%)
Majority: 13392 (33.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11259 (23.4%)
Labour: 27418 (56.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7121 (14.8%)
Referendum: 1479 (3.1%)
Other: 924 (1.9%)
Majority: 16159 (33.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Kerry McCarthy(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Adeela Shafi (Conservative) University lecturer and charity fundraiser. Received a commendation from the Pakistani government in 2007 for raising funds for the victims of the October 2006 earthquake in Pakistan.Kerry McCarthy(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Mike Popham (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Glastonbury. Former RAF Squadron leader. Director of a risk and compliance software company. Former Woking councillor. Bristol councillor since 2007.Glenn Vowles (Green) 
Scott Wright (English Democrat)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89307
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 22.2%
Over 60: 21.1%
Born outside UK: 5.5%
White: 93.1%
Black: 1.9%
Asian: 2.8%
Mixed: 1.6%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 66.8%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1.7%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 4.4%
Graduates 16-74: 15.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.9%
Owner-Occupied: 72.7%
Social Housing: 16.8% (Council: 13.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.5%)
Privately Rented: 7.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.3%
At the moment that seems the most likely outcome, yes.
PPC News!
Glenn Vowles is the replacement Green Party candidate here.
I wonder if that 11/10 is still available? Maybe worth a speculative tenner especially if the LD vote is squeezed.
n.b I think this is a two horse race between Labour and the Cons. And maybe a very tight one at that.
The Green Party has chosen Glenn Vowles to contest the Bristol East seat in this year’s general election.
Glenn Vowles, 48, who teaches Environmental Decision Making and Environmental Studies with the Open University has been a general election candidate on two previous occasions. He is also their lead campaigner in Knowle where he has helped to triple the Green vote to over 15% in recent years. He contested the Eastville seat in the 2009 local elections, raising to green vote there to 14%. His Vowles the Green blog is very well known and he writes regularly in the local press.
“I’m very excited to be contesting this seat for the Greens. Our current politicians and the systems they have created are self-serving and inadequate. I think voters should empowered with the ability to recall, effectively sack, MPs who break rules. This has been a longstanding Green Party policy and there is no better time for it than now.”
“There is very little to choose between the ‘big three’ parties and voting for them will fundamentally change nothing ” Vowles said.
“The Green Party is about thinking afresh about the kind of economy, society and politics that is ethical and can sustain us and future generations. ”
“The Government has become pretty unpopular and this is likely to increase those voting Green in Bristol East.”
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2010/02/huge-debts-of-tory-candidate-leave-voters-with-prospect-of-disqualified-mp/
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/02/01/cam-star-has-325k-ccj-debt-115875-22010144/
The LibDems did very well to jump from third to second in this seat in 2005. However boundary changes mean Conservatives jump back to second.
I agree this will be a straight Lab/Con fight this time. However I do not see the Conservatives gaining the seat but should run close.
I think the swing from Lab to Con here will be far larger than the national average.
Con Gain following two recounts.
If Tony Benn could not hold on here in 1983, why would Kerry McCarthy hold on in 2010?
Because then Tony Benn was regarded as a wild eyed extremist not a national treasure!
I wonder how well (or badly) the English Democrats will do.
no news on Adeela Shafi who is turning down engagements or just not turning up, Tory hopes here must be dissolving
http://bristolwestpaul.wordpress.com/2010/02/16/since-youve-been-gone/
The English Democrats stood a local candidate in St George West Ward in June 2009, finished dead last of 6 candidates.
(6.56%)
Labour, Lib Dem, Tory, Green, BNP, ED.
In a 2008 bye-election they also came last with 3.43%.
For one I’m quite glad when they take votes from the BNP.
Well there is no BNP canididate here as far as we can tell so they may take quite alot of BNP votes. The BNP won over 10% of the vote in the 5 Bristol East wards which were contested in June 2009 and combined with the English Democrats vote would be 11% which was more than the Greens though they only contested 4 of the wards and the Greens fought all 5.
I doubt if all the BNP votes will transfer directly to the English Democrats. In 2005 General UKIP got just 2.7% (Greens got 3.8%) – but got far more votes in the Euros.
I think Greens will outpoll the English Democrats
the Fishponds area has a cluster of BNP members so they may well stand a candidate but unlikely to affect the overall result
The tories have a strong local candidate and looking at the last few local elections results you can see the swing.
I see this as a tight finish but a tory gain.