Bristol East
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20047 (44.8%)
Conservative: 12668 (28.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9139 (20.4%)
Other: 2926 (6.5%)
Majority: 7379 (16.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8787 (21.1%)
Labour: 19152 (45.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 10531 (25.2%)
Green: 1586 (3.8%)
UKIP: 1132 (2.7%)
Other: 532 (1.3%)
Majority: 8621 (20.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8788 (21.8%)
Labour: 22180 (55%)
Liberal Democrat: 6915 (17.1%)
UKIP: 572 (1.4%)
Green: 1110 (2.8%)
Other: 769 (1.9%)
Majority: 13392 (33.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11259 (23.4%)
Labour: 27418 (56.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7121 (14.8%)
Referendum: 1479 (3.1%)
Other: 924 (1.9%)
Majority: 16159 (33.5%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Kerry McCarthy (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Adeela Shafi (Conservative) University lecturer and charity fundraiser. Received a commendation from the Pakistani government in 2007 for raising funds for the victims of the October 2006 earthquake in Pakistan.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89307
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 22.2%
Over 60: 21.1%
Born outside UK: 5.5%
White: 93.1%
Black: 1.9%
Asian: 2.8%
Mixed: 1.6%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 66.8%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1.7%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 4.4%
Graduates 16-74: 15.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.9%
Owner-Occupied: 72.7%
Social Housing: 16.8% (Council: 13.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.5%)
Privately Rented: 7.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.3%
My prediction for this seat;
Labour 18500
Cons 16000
Lib Dem 8000
Green 2000
Others 2000
I think the Tories may get closer. Despite there being 3 other target seats in Bristol - North West, FABS and Kingswood there are also several council targets for the tories in the seat which are up in 2010 (St George E/W, Brislington East, Frome Vale) So the seat will be worked hard because of this. I expect the majority may even be as low as 1000 and could even be a (very unlikely) Tory gain.
The poor tory candidate here doesn’t seem to have been told about the boundary changes and spends all her time campaigning in the two wards that are transferrng to Bristol West.
Maybe she is just trying to help her colleagues in other constituencies as well as this one, in view of the 20 months that still potentially remain before the election? Kerry McCarthy will still be representing those two wards in that time.
The Liberal Democrat candidate in Bristol East is Michael Popham.
You have to remember that the ‘poor’ Tory candidate is actually a born and bred Bristol resident and like many of us does not live or work purely in the confines of constituency boundaries.
I think she is better than the Labour MP and i will be voting Tory this time just because of the candidate.
Kerry tweets using the handle @KerryMP. And you may notice a little debate she had post-Question Time with me last night. Good lord what a woman…..
Given the mess Labour is in, this seat must be a possible as the polls stand.
Local reports extrapolating from the Bristol unitary elections to be held tomorrow will be very helpful for this seat.
Labour have held only 2 seats in Bristol so far (with 4 wards still to declare). One of them is St George West, by only 91 votes. I assume this is normally a safe Labour ward:
Lab - 892
LD - 801
C - 436
Green - 293
BNP - 211
Eng Dem - 185
They lost a seat there to the LDs in a byelection last year, but normally a safe Labour ward yes.. whatever ‘normal’ is
Labour: 20000
Liberal Democrat: 11000
Conservative: 10500
Other: 2500
Majority: 9000
The St. George West result Andy has reported actually does not look good for the Conservatives: the large Other vote represents disaffected Labour voters the Tories need to pick up if they are to win this just-about-target seat.
It is quite possible that Labour will be saved here by the high LibDem vote in Bristol. Or if the Green etc. voters get behind the LibDems in the General Election, is it just possible the LibDems will win from third place?
This seat is going to be worth watching over the next year.
On June 4th in this seat five wards were fought and the numbers of votes cast were as follows.
Lib Dem - 4,251
Labour - 4,139
Con - 3,892
Green - 1,681
Bnp - 1,582
Eng dem - 185
this is a sign to me that Labour will probably hold the seat unless some other disaster happens in the next few months.
So we might well see Labour holding this seat on less than a third of the vote.
It is not just a matter of whether some further disaster happens to the Labour vote before the General Election. Labour could be ousted if the anti-Labour vote got organised, but there appears to be a lack of sophistication about tactical voting in many parts of England compared to, say, rural Scotland, which is long used to contests between three and even four candidates with strong chances of winning..
It will matter what candidates stand at the next election: even a thousand or so votes diverted to an also-ran candidate (I hesitate to use the term “minor party” after last Thursday) could be crucial.
Voters will also be watching how well the LibDems run the Council.