Brighton Pavilion
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17162 (37.5%)
Conservative: 10639 (23.2%)
Green: 9457 (20.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7414 (16.2%)
Other: 1115 (2.4%)
Majority: 6523 (14.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10397 (23.9%)
Labour: 15427 (35.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7171 (16.5%)
Green: 9530 (21.9%)
UKIP: 508 (1.2%)
Other: 506 (1.2%)
Majority: 5030 (11.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10203 (25.1%)
Labour: 19846 (48.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5348 (13.1%)
UKIP: 361 (0.9%)
Green: 3806 (9.3%)
Other: 1159 (2.8%)
Majority: 9643 (23.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13556 (27.7%)
Labour: 26737 (54.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4644 (9.5%)
Referendum: 1304 (2.7%)
Other: 2710 (5.5%)
Majority: 13181 (26.9%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: David Lepper (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Nancy Platts (Labour) Professional campaigner. Former director of the Maternity Alliance, having previously worked for the TSSA and Daycare Trust.
David Bull (Conservative) born 1969, Kent. Educated at St Mary`s Hospital Medical School. Former NHS doctor, now a TV presenter and head of IncrediBull ideas, a communications agency.
Caroline Lucas (Green) born 1960, Malvern. Educated at the University of Exter. Former communications officer and advisor for Oxfam. Oxfordshire county councillor 1993-1997. Green MEP for South East England since 1999. Principle Speaker for the Green party from 2003-2006.
Andrew Falconer (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Careers advisor and former Parliamentary researcher.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91162
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 17.2%
Over 60: 17.4%
Born outside UK: 11.1%
White: 94.2%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 1.8%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 54.1%
Jewish: 0.8%
Muslim: 1.3%
Full time students: 13.5%
Graduates 16-74: 33.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 17.8%
Owner-Occupied: 62.8%
Social Housing: 11.2% (Council: 7.1%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 22.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.7%
I think people are seriously over-egging the Greens’ prospects, here and everywhere else. They MIGHT beat the Libdems in Norwich North, but have no chance of coming second. This seat is obviously there best chance for the GE, but I wouldn’t bet on them, even at 5/1, and certainly not at 2/1. I think a Conservative gain is most likely here, with Greens finishing second, about 3000 behind Conservatives and a similar margin ahead of Labour.
Neil,
What about the probability that the Greens will pour all their national resources into the seat in order to gain at least one Westminster MP.
I think the Conservatives need to select someone like Brian Oxley (former leader of local council) - a parachutee from London will not work IMHO!
“What about the probability that the Greens will pour all their national resources into the seat in order to gain at least one Westminster MP.”
The problem the Greens have is that they will have already picked up a lot of the soft Labour support in 2005 and that both Labour and the LibDems will not want to see a Green MP and so will fight hard.
I’m not sure the Lib Dems have much strength in this seat, or in Brighton/Hove generally - I would have thought that Eastbourne, Mid Sussex and Lewes would be where they’d be concentrating resources, rather than in a seat where they were 4th last time (and certain to be 4th again)