563 Responses to “Brighton Pavillion”

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1. Steen

   I think predictions that the LD vote will be squeezed, perhaps even to the low 3k level, could well be accurate.

   The LDs don’t have any councillors in Brighton Pav, or Kemptown for that matter either. Their spike in support in 01 and 05 must therefore be seen as a left(of sorts) support for them, as the candidate didn’t really do much campaigning, so there may have been some student voters in there.

   However I’m sure it will be much harder for people NOT to think the Greens have a good chance now, I think the momentum is certainly there to prize some of the LD votes away, and that could make it safe for them, even if some defect back to Labour.

   I can’t see the Tory share of the vote here being much higher than 27%, as another poster rightly commented, their share of the vote has actually fallen in both subsequent elections since 1997.

   February 9th, 2010 at 1:05 pm
2. Shaun Bennett

   “I can’t see the Tory share of the vote here being much higher than 27%, as another poster rightly commented, their share of the vote has actually fallen in both subsequent elections since 1997.”

   Well that just means that the potential is there for an above average increase next time doesn’t it?

   What is the logiv that says just because the Tory vote has gone down since 1997 that it will continue to go down now that the party is recovering nationally?

   I do agree that the Lib Dems will plummet here though-and it will probably all go to the Greens.

   February 9th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
3. Steen

   Shaun, I wouldn’t expect much more than 30%, which I would class as not much higher than 27%.

   And I think the LD vote plummeting here will probably be enough to put the Greens in, I don’t think the Labour vote will completely collapse either, but plus the LD vote, 3-4% would be enough.

   February 9th, 2010 at 2:44 pm
4. brighton central

   On the Brighton Pavilion boundary change question: whether it is overall beneficial for the Greens, the issue is clouded a little by the fact that that the main area that departed Pavilion has a high concentration of council housing whereas the area coming in from Kemptown constituency – largely the south of the old Tenantry ward – is largely private housing.

   My feeling is that the new area will benefit the Greens -overall as it’s similar in its demographics to the rest of Hanover (though less fashionable!) and with a high population of students etc.

   The other point to note is that in 2005 the Greens had only recently won two council seats in the ward and in 2007 the whole ward went very strongly Green – all three councillors elected were Greens.

   If you accept that urban middle class housing areas *tend* to favour the Greens as compared with council / social housing areas, then I think on balance the boundary change will favour Greens over Lab / Cons.

   Any voting trends from last time will not be accurate.

   February 9th, 2010 at 2:51 pm
5. Shaun Bennett

   Actually, I would expect a Tory vote of around 30% too. But I also think the Greens and Labour will be looking at around 30%, so I wouldn’t be too sure about saying that the Greens will definately get it.

   Its looking like they’re the ones to beat. But its not done yet.

   February 9th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
6. Ben Foley

   On the boundary question, if you look on the Hove strand, you will see that we have reason to doubt that as many as 433 Green votes really have moved from Pavilion to Hove. If that is the case, the notional result for Pavilion is probably out, too and rather than showing a lower Green vote than the actual result (on the old boundaries), I suspect it should show that the Green vote would have been higher on the new boundaries than the old.

   And to answer Shaun (1:09 pm), if as some suspect, there has been demographic change meaning less Tory-inclined wealthy pensioners retire to Brighton and other seaside towns, and instead the properties become bedsits/flats for young professionals, then a demographic trend could be behind a steady decline in the Tory vote here: it might be that a national swing will counteract that this time (although smaller national swings didn’t in the last two GEs), but if that demographic change has continued, then replicating here a national swing of more than 7% would probably not take the Tory above 30%: the starting point before the swing would have shifted, as the ground falls away below the Tories’ feet (presumably adding to the pebbles on the beach…).

   February 9th, 2010 at 3:20 pm
7. Shaun Bennett

   I’m in full agreement with your conclusion Ben. I have been very clear that I don’t expect the Tories to be in contention here in the not to distant future. Indeed, the only reason I am still thinking this seat may go Tory next time is because of the national upturn in the level of support coupled with the rise of the Greens potentially splitting the left wing vote.

   In years to come, I suspect we will be viewing the next Tory MP for this seat as the last Tory MP for this seat.

   February 9th, 2010 at 3:54 pm
8. Pete Whitehead

   I will have to check Thrasher & Rallings figures to see what they have for this seat, but it does appear that if 433 Green votes were erroneously removed to Hove that the notional figures here must certainly underestimate the Green share.
   Whereas on the actual result in 2005, Labour were 13.5% ahead of the Greens, on the notionals here they are 16.8% which is quite a difference. My point still holds anyway that the voters coming in from Kemptown will have produced a lower Green vote precisely because they were in Kemptown than they would have done if the were in this constituency in 2005

   February 9th, 2010 at 3:57 pm

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