Brighton Pavilion
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12275 (23.68%)
Labour: 14986 (28.91%)
Liberal Democrat: 7159 (13.81%)
UKIP: 948 (1.83%)
Green: 16238 (31.33%)
Socialist Labour: 148 (0.29%)
Others: 80 (0.15%)
Majority: 1252 (2.42%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17162 (37.5%)
Conservative: 10639 (23.2%)
Green: 9457 (20.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7414 (16.2%)
Other: 1115 (2.4%)
Majority: 6523 (14.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10397 (23.9%)
Labour: 15427 (35.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7171 (16.5%)
Green: 9530 (21.9%)
UKIP: 508 (1.2%)
Other: 506 (1.2%)
Majority: 5030 (11.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10203 (25.1%)
Labour: 19846 (48.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5348 (13.1%)
UKIP: 361 (0.9%)
Green: 3806 (9.3%)
Other: 1159 (2.8%)
Majority: 9643 (23.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13556 (27.7%)
Labour: 26737 (54.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4644 (9.5%)
Referendum: 1304 (2.7%)
Other: 2710 (5.5%)
Majority: 13181 (26.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Caroline Lucas (Green) born 1960, Malvern. Educated at the University of Exeter. Former communications officer and advisor for Oxfam. Oxfordshire county councillor 1993-1997. Green MEP for South East England since 1999. Principal Speaker for the Green party from 2003-2006, she became the first Leader of the Green Party in 2008.
Charlotte Vere (Conservative) Educated at UCL. Chief executive of Big White Wall.
Nancy Platts (Labour) Born London. Professional campaigner. Former director of the Maternity Alliance, having previously worked for the TSSA and Daycare Trust. 
Bernadette Millam (Liberal Democrat) Caroline Lucas (Green) born 1960, Malvern. Educated at the University of Exeter. Former communications officer and advisor for Oxfam. Oxfordshire county councillor 1993-1997. Green MEP for South East England since 1999. Principal Speaker for the Green party from 2003-2006, she became the first Leader of the Green Party in 2008.
Nigel Carter (UKIP) Born 1950, Chelmsford. Educated at King Edward VI Grammar Chelmsford. Works in market research and marketing.
Ian Fyvie (Socialist Labour) Contested Brighton Pavilion 2005.Soraya Anne Kara (Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality)
Leo Atreides (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91162
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 17.2%
Over 60: 17.4%
Born outside UK: 11.1%
White: 94.2%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 1.8%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 54.1%
Jewish: 0.8%
Muslim: 1.3%
Full time students: 13.5%
Graduates 16-74: 33.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 17.8%
Owner-Occupied: 62.8%
Social Housing: 11.2% (Council: 7.1%, Housing Ass.: 4%)
Privately Rented: 22.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.7%
It’s conceivable that under the AV voting system Caroline Lucas might come third on first preferences but win after transfers.
Or it’s conceivable that the transfers from the transfers from the Conservatives would put Labour in . . .
I was thinking of something like this:
Lab – 15,000
C – 14,500
Green – 14,000
LD – 6,000
Transfers from LDs go mainly to Caroline Lucas which puts her in the top 2. The fact that Con and Lab voters won’t give each other second preferences means Lucas wins.
I suspect that AV would help Caroline Lucas here. She appears to have a considerable personal vote now, and with AV people liking her personally could vote for her without risking putting in a candidate from a party they greatly disliked.
Second preference transfers can at an individual voter level go in all sorts of surprising directions, but on aggregate I also suspect that Caroline Lucas would pick up votes on second and subsequent rounds too.
The Greens’ problem with AV would be the large number of seats in which they would go out on the first round, but clearly that would not happen in Brighton Pavillion.
Green results in Sussex, 1992:
Brighton Pavilion: 963 (2.2%)
Wealden: 1,002 (1.7%)
Hove: 814 (1.6%)
Chichester: 876 (1.4%)
Worthing: 806 (1.3%)
Mid Sussex: 772 (1.2%)
Lewes: 719 (1.2%)
Hastings & Rye: 640 (1.2%)
Arundel: 693 (1.1%)
Bexhill & Battle: 594 (1.1%)
Horsham: 692 (1.0%)
Eastbourne: 391 (0.6%)
No candidate: Brighton Kemptown, Crawley, Shoreham.
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