Comments on: Brighton Kemptown

By: Dalek

Dalek — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 00:24:02 +0000

Brighton Kempton had Tory majority of 3000 – 4000 in 1992, the 1997 revised constituency had a national Conservative majority of 10000+.

This was not just due to the addition of Peacehaven (part of Lewes DC) but the transfer of two Labour inclined wards to Brighton Pavilion.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 23:26:34 +0000

My view is that it’s a nonsensical description. It’s nothing of the kind. It’s semis & bungalows, some of them Council-built, and not in the least bit rural in character.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 22:34:21 +0000

And what is your view on the semi-ruralness of Peacehaven Barnaby?

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 22:18:08 +0000

but you were right about Dennis Hobden’s victory being the closest in that election. Dennis remained on Brighton Council until the 1990s.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 22:17:14 +0000

No Harry it’s nowhere near Pavilion. It was in Lewes until 1997 & is still under the jurisdiction of Lewes District Council, as are Telscombe Cliffs & E. Saltdean.

By: Ben Foley

Ben Foley — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 22:00:28 +0000

Steen – March 1st, 2010 at 1:12 pm
Given the Green Party’s progress in B&H, and especially with the national attention that will be on Pavilion, and people’s confusion about boundaries, I think this is going to be a rare case of a two way marginal where a party starting clearly in 4th will substantially increase its share of the vote. I can see the LD share getting squeezed here, but not the Green share.

By: Harry Porter

Harry Porter — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 21:26:33 +0000

Wikipedia says Peacehaven has only been part of Kemptown since 1997, so based on that criteria I presume it was in Pavilion from 1950 to 1997

Wasn’t Kemptown the most marginal seat in the country in 1964? (Labour’s Dennis Hobden gained it from the Conservatives with a majority of just 7)

And just out of interest, Wikipedia does refer to Peacehaven as ’semi-rural’

By: Luke Walter

Luke Walter — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 15:49:00 +0000

I think this seat will go to the Tories.

The left-of-centre vote will be split three ways between Labour, Greens and Lib Dems.

I expect to see the Greens double their share of the vote to about 14%, with the Lib Dem vote being slashed to about 8%. I think it will be very tight between Labour and the Tories, but Simon Kirby will just clinch it due to the three-way split of the left vote.

(I know TUSC is standing but they won’t have any major impact at all in the constituency)

By: Steen

Steen — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 13:22:27 +0000

Actually yes, looking at the fact it’s only 1200 majority now, I was more basing that on when it had been 2700.

I do wonder if the poll narrowing will help Labour in Pavilion or if it will just make it slightly easier for the Greens, because we obviously don’t know that people returning to Lab nationally would do it in that seat.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 13:17:22 +0000

Absolutely no chance.

If Labour hold this then they’ll still have an overall majority.