Brighton Kemptown
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14080 (38.2%)
Conservative: 12867 (34.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6245 (16.9%)
Green: 2440 (6.6%)
Other: 1274 (3.5%)
Majority: 1213 (3.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13121 (33%)
Labour: 15858 (39.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6560 (16.5%)
Green: 2800 (7%)
UKIP: 758 (1.9%)
Other: 622 (1.6%)
Majority: 2737 (6.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13823 (35.3%)
Labour: 18745 (47.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4064 (10.4%)
UKIP: 543 (1.4%)
Green: 1290 (3.3%)
Other: 738 (1.9%)
Majority: 4922 (12.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17945 (38.9%)
Labour: 21479 (46.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4478 (9.7%)
Referendum: 1526 (3.3%)
Other: 704 (1.5%)
Majority: 3534 (7.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: Brighton Kemptown is the eastern part of Brighton and the semi-rural suburbs and villages stretching out to the east of the seat. At its western end it includes Queen`s Park ward, the centre of Brighton`s vibrant gay community, then Kemptown, the council estates of Whitehawk and Moulscoomb and then, beyond the racecourse, more affluent and genteel coastal villages like Woodingdean, Saltdean and the town of Peacehaven. At the north of the seat is Brighton University`s Falmer campus – despite Moulscoomb itself being in the constituency, Moulscoomb campus lies just over the boundary in Brighton Pavilion.
In the past Kemptown was the more Labour leaning of the two Brighton seats, but it is now the more marginal. There is also a strong Green presence here – although not when compared to their strength in Brighton Pavilon.
Current MP: Desmond Turner(Labour) born 1939, Southampton. Educated Luton Grammar and Imperial College. University lecturer. East Sussex county councillor 1985-1997. Brighton councillor 1994-1997. First elected as MP for Brighton Kemptown in 1997. He will retire at the next general election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Simon Kirby (Conservative) local entrepreneur and one time owner of a chain of pubs, clubs and restaurants in Brighton. Set up the local Brighton radio station and was involved in the campaign for City status. East Sussex County councillor and former Brighton and Brighton and Hove councillor, former leader of the Conservative group on Brighton council.Simon Burgess (Labour) Vice-Chairman of Labour`s National Policy Forum. Brighton councillor until 2007. Former leader of Brighton and Hove council 2006-2007.Juliet Williams (Liberal Democrat) Ben Duncan (Green) Brighton and Hove councillor. Press assistant to Caroline Lucas.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84775
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 20.6%
Over 60: 23.8%
Born outside UK: 8.7%
White: 95.4%
Black: 0.7%
Asian: 1.5%
Mixed: 1.4%
Other: 1%
Christian: 65.2%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 1.1%
Full time students: 6%
Graduates 16-74: 20.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.7%
Owner-Occupied: 62.1%
Social Housing: 21.1% (Council: 16.1%, Housing Ass.: 5%)
Privately Rented: 13.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.7%
I wonder how long the boundary commission will recognise the historical Brighton Hove boundary.
You could end up with ‘Portslade & Patcham’
Given that Hove has almost exactly the right number of voters for an English constituency, the answer could be quite a long time. Unless the number of MPs is greatly reduced which seems unlikely ever to happen.
The European Result would indicate a Green majority of 357 over the Conservatives with Labour a poor third.
Still a Con Gain in 2010.
Peter – does your calculation include Peacehaven and the other areas in Lewes DC?
Ladbrokes:
Conservatives 1/6
Labour 7/2
Greens 50/1
Liberal Democrats 100/1
Those odds are no surprise in the current climate.
Partly because voters often don’t have a clear (and correct) idea of which constituency they live in, I have a strong suspicion that the Brighton Pavilion poll will have a spill-over effect here, meaning that Greens will gain votes at the expense of Labour and especially LDs. On that basis, I would think the Green will beat the LD in this constituency.
I think the Greens will come third here to.
I do think there will be a clear division between the Brighton & Hove and Peacehaven wards, with the Greens polling very strongly within the city while still coming 4th outside.
COUNTY ELECTION RESULTS
Thursday 4th JUNE 2009
Peacehaven & Telscombe Towns
Lewes District Council
Electorate: 15891 Turnout: 35.1%
Total votes (two Councillor Division)
Labour 1,626 14.6%
Green 1,420 12.7%
Liberal Democrat 1,978 17.8%
Conservative 6,119 54.9%
Conservative win (two seats).
It is interesting that Shadsy gave the Greens shorter odds than the LibDems even though in 2005 the LibDems got more votes. He is probably right though. The LibDems have been around a long time, so there is more scope for the Greens to advance. And the Greens may get a halo effect from Brighton Pavillion. I would not be certain that the Greens are going to come third in 2010 though: it is possible but not certain.
Of course it would be a great surprise if the Tories did not manage to overturn the 3.3% Labour majority given current polling data.
Dave Hill to stand for TUSC here