Bridgwater and West Somerset
2010 Results:
Conservative: 24675 (45.28%)
Labour: 9332 (17.13%)
Liberal Democrat: 15426 (28.31%)
BNP: 1282 (2.35%)
UKIP: 2604 (4.78%)
Green: 859 (1.58%)
Independent: 315 (0.58%)
Majority: 9249 (16.97%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 22916 (45.1%)
Labour: 13161 (25.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 11487 (22.6%)
Other: 3226 (6.4%)
Majority: 9755 (19.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 21240 (44.1%)
Labour: 12771 (26.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 10940 (22.7%)
Green: 1391 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1767 (3.7%)
Majority: 8469 (17.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 19354 (40.4%)
Labour: 12803 (26.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 14367 (30%)
UKIP: 1323 (2.8%)
Majority: 4987 (10.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20174 (36.9%)
Labour: 13519 (24.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 18378 (33.6%)
Referendum: 2551 (4.7%)
Majority: 1796 (3.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Ian Liddell-Grainger(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Ian Liddell-Grainger(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)Kathy Pearce (Labour) Theo Butt-Philip (Liberal Democrat) Charles Graham (Green)Peter Hollings (UKIP)Donna Treanor (BNP)Bob Cudlipp (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 101300
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 21.5%
Over 60: 26.2%
Born outside UK: 3%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.2%
Full time students: 1.9%
Graduates 16-74: 14.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.5%
Owner-Occupied: 73.3%
Social Housing: 14.6% (Council: 6.6%, Housing Ass.: 8%)
Privately Rented: 8.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.7%
Of course, so long as Labour DOES retain 2nd place in this constituency, the Tories are home and dry for the long term. Only the Lib Dems can really challenge to win the seat and increased Labour support will mean an increased Tory majority.
For what its worth, I agree with Barnaby that it is highly likely that Labour will overtake the Lib Dems here next time.
I think we need to see a bit more – the county council elections next year, to see whether Labour has some momentum
or that stupendous momentum,
but I’d expect them to be in second place again next time.
Shaun is of course right. This seat overall isn’t winnable for Labour. Mind you the LDs haven’t done much of a job at winning it either. There clearly are enough areas which are solid for the Tories for it not to be lost, despite the consistent anti-Tory voting of Bridgwater itself.
Just had a very enjoyable weekend in this constituency – in Exmoor,
and staying in Dunster, which is very picturesque, high quality places to go in the evening aswell.
Plus couldn’t resist a couple of pints of Thatchers – after the Great Lady.
I agree with Barnaby that Labour should be looking to a major improvement in this constituency as a whole (by coming second – hopefully no higher).
I had looked at local election results over recent years in some detail, and Labour did have a reasonable vote /seats in Watchet and Minehead in 2003 – but I’m struck that they didn’t even stand in the County Council elections in the divisions covering those towns in 2009 – they must have been at a very low ebb if they couldn’t even put up candidates.
The Exmoor area is ominious but beautiful – lots of forests, aswell as red heathland (red iron sandstone, and heather).
In fact, part of Exmoor is in the Dunster CC division – I had always thought Exmoor, although rural, would be too big to fit into Dulverton and Exmoor.
Butlins holiday camp (opened 1962) is clearly visible from the moors – I wonder how well it does these days but it is one of the few in Britain not to have closed.
Labour had 1 seat in Watchet
and 1 in Minehead in 2011 though.
Stupendous holiday
Having looked further at this,
the Greens did quite well in some wards on West Somerset District Council in 2011.
Not much sign of the Lib Dems.
Labour doing quite well in the areas you’d expect them to – as I said we await the County Council elections with interest.
Labour might have stupendous momentum.
It did strike me that the strongest Con wards in Somerset in the 2009 CC elections are mostly around Bridgwater itself, including to the east of it
which is very much Somerset levels.
If Labour were ever to gain this seat it would be 1997 I think.
If people had known how far they would get nationally, perhaps they could have cracked more of the Lib Dem vote.
But as I think has been mentioned, the Tory areas re-asserted quite soon after,
so maybe it would have been a rare gain in 2001 if not 2005.
‘If Labour were ever to gain this seat it would be 1997 I think.’
Even then it was a long shot given they were a clear third in 92 and that their vote has traditionally been almost exclusively confined to bridgwater itself
I actually though they came 2nd in 97
It’s somewhat ironic that the one seat the Tories do hold in somerset (post 1972) is the one that contains the most Labour-voting town by some distance
“I actually though they came 2nd in 97″
No. They came second in 2005.
“It’s somewhat ironic that the one seat the Tories do hold in somerset (post 1972) is the one that contains the most Labour-voting town by some distance”
Not really that surprising though Tim. As has been said above, the reason the Tories have remained on top here is because both the Lib Dems and Labour votes are so solid. Neither party has emerged as the single main challengerbecause the other side’s voters don’t generally vote tactically here.
If they did, then one or the other-probably the Lib Dems-would win it.
I actually hope that Labour DOES overtake the Lib Dems here, because I don’t think Labour pose any real threat of winning the seat. So long as Labour is doing very well here, it will remain in Tory hands for the forseeable future.
The danger is if Labour voters start voting Lib Dem tactically. its definately not going to happen next time though.
It has the most C voting rural areas in the County too, the kinds of place where they would bump off the bottom first after. The 1997 rout
Joe is right – the rural areas in this seat, especially around Exmoor, are strongly (even fanatically) Conservative and likely to remain so. Labour have no chance of winning this seat as they cannot get the traction necessary among Con and Lib Dem voters they would need – Labour’s appeal is limited largely to Bridgwater.
And even if the Lib Dems were able somehow to squeeze Labour’s vote down to West Dorset-style levels they would still be some way from winning. Any chance they had here has gone I would think.
I think the most likely result in Somerset next year is Con to NOC.
I can’t see the LDs doing too badly against the tories except in parts of Mendip.
although I agree the LDs will do badly here ( I hope that was implied).
I’d be interested to hgear how Minehard – which I assume is the second largest town in the seat votes. I remember going there on a rainy day in the 1980s and it didn’t seem particularly nice then. There must be Labour votes there
Minehead (Minehard??) is mainly owner-occupied & not very deprived, but there is at least one Labour councillor in the town. I think as a whole it usually votes Conservative at most levels with Labour not far behind.
Minehead isn’t a very big town – the population is only around 10k. Labour has some pockest of support there but only got one councillor elected in 2011 (out of nine).
Looks like Labour would have difficuly outpolling their 97 result