Comments on: Bridgend

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 08:47:35 +0000

Welsh Assembly 2011: Lab Hold

By: Dan Thomas

Dan Thomas — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 23:51:17 +0000

“All the polls suggest that participation in the ConDem coalition is causing problems for LibDems prospects. My guess is a substantial amount of the LibDem support here will be that of the Welsh middle class which culturally comes from a heritage in which the Tories are out of the question (e.g. people whose parents lived in The Valleys and now live in modern housing in this area.). These voters are likely to abstain or go back to Labour, not to the Conservatives.”

I agree, the same is true of Pontypridd to an extent.

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 14:47:34 +0000

The Liberal Democrats have made very considerable progress in this seat in recent years: South Wales outside Cardiff has “traditionally” been a bad prospect for them and presumably they have targeted this area (most of what I know about this seat is from times before that).

All the polls suggest that participation in the ConDem coalition is causing problems for LibDems prospects. My guess is a substantial amount of the LibDem support here will be that of the Welsh middle class which culturally comes from a heritage in which the Tories are out of the question (e.g. people whose parents lived in The Valleys and now live in modern housing in this area.). These voters are likely to abstain or go back to Labour, not to the Conservatives.

If (a big if) things at the next election in terms of political support are as in the current polls, the scenario night be the Conservatives staying around 30%, perhaps drifting upwards by a couple of percent, but the LibDems going down to between 10 and 15%, and correspondingly Labour going up to about 50%, as an anti-coalition vote rather than a pro-Labour one.

Of course, the electoral effects may depend on AV, changed boundaries etc.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 10:03:38 +0000

VoteDave,
I haven’t given up on it atall – I just don’t know what the likely result is going to be.

I suspect though, if the LDs lose significant support, the way that unravels will not be even in different types of seats.

HH is correct I think – normally Government’s don’t increase their share – although in the Tories we obviously hope that 2010 was an unusual case where we underperformed from what was likely to have happened a few months before.
(although I suspect it was only 2-3% or so)

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 09:12:17 +0000

Well of course all governments set their sights on increasing their number of seats and vote share, but the fact that it so rarely happens reflects the fact that it is incredibly hard to achieve.

Governments win by building a particular coalition of voters, and that coalition gradually frays and breaks up over the years.

Next time we will have the unknown factor of what happens to Lib Dem support, especially in areas where they challenge Labour.

By: Votedave

Votedave — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 04:45:41 +0000

To suggest that Labour will increase its majority here and elsewhere would almost be to give up hope that the Conservatives will remain in government beyond 2015, given the current numbers in the House of Commons.
By the next election it will have been over 30 years since an incumbent party strenghtened its position in a general election and that’s what we ought to be setting our sights on imho.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 22:04:17 +0000

I think it’s more like 8.3% up given the boundary change this time – which is a substantial rise.
Without knowing the seat, I would have thought a Tory gain is possible if they improve next time.
More likely, though, the LD vote will collapse and Labour will push up their majority to about 5,000.

It’s too early to say.

By: Welsh Red

Welsh Red — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 21:06:50 +0000

Tory vote only up 7.6% since 1997 Paul which is hardly a massive shift towards them. The Labour vote has fallen 22% which is more worrying. I dont see this seat falling to the Tories next time though.

By: Votedave

Votedave — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 20:57:19 +0000

Oh no, Paul. This is one of our main targets for the next election.

By: Paul D

Paul D — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 20:54:31 +0000

A seat that seems to be trending Conservative long-term. It will likely be a good few elections before it goes blue though – probably the next time Labour are voted out of office.