Bridgend
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14635 (43.2%)
Conservative: 8613 (25.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7338 (21.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2317 (6.8%)
Other: 990 (2.9%)
Majority: 6022 (17.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 9887 (26.1%)
Labour: 16410 (43.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7949 (21%)
Plaid Cymru: 2527 (6.7%)
Green: 595 (1.6%)
UKIP: 491 (1.3%)
Majority: 6523 (17.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9377 (25.3%)
Labour: 19422 (52.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5330 (14.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 2652 (7.2%)
Other: 223 (0.6%)
Majority: 10045 (27.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9867 (22.8%)
Labour: 25115 (58.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4968 (11.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 1649 (3.8%)
Referendum: 1662 (3.8%)
Majority: 15248 (35.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Madeleine Moon(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Helen Baker (Conservative) Madeleine Moon(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Wayne Morgan (Liberal Democrat)Nick Thomas (Plaid Cymru)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 70966
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 22.9%
Born outside UK: 3.1%
White: 98.2%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 71.3%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 19.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.5%
Owner-Occupied: 77.7%
Social Housing: 13.9% (Council: 9.8%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 5.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.4%
Also speaking as an ex-Bridgend boy, it is clear that Labour is not well liked here but that many locals are very anti-Conservative here and it is difficult to see many people switching direct from Labour to Conservatives.
The LDs and Plaid both have their pockets of support, but people are unwilling to switch to them for fear of letting the Conservatives (like they did in 1983).
In the longer term I can see LDs emerging as a credible candidate (and Plaid in next door Ogmore) but for now it should be a narrow Labour hold at Westminster (stronger position for them in WA because of Carwyn Jones)
The Lib Dems have selected local councillor Wayne Morgan
In a by-election in Pendre ward on Thursday, Labour gained the seat from the LDs by 7 votes. Remarkably, the LDs had beaten Labour by 7 votes in the previous contest.
There’s just been a post for Blackpool North about voters living in static caravans.
I think there may be large numbers of caravans in this seat (at Porthcawl). Does anybody know how many registered voters in this constituency live in static caravans, or indeed can they estimate how many voters so living have been omitted from the register?. And what are the psephological implications?