Bridgend
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14635 (43.2%)
Conservative: 8613 (25.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7338 (21.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2317 (6.8%)
Other: 990 (2.9%)
Majority: 6022 (17.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 9887 (26.1%)
Labour: 16410 (43.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7949 (21%)
Plaid Cymru: 2527 (6.7%)
Green: 595 (1.6%)
UKIP: 491 (1.3%)
Majority: 6523 (17.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9377 (25.3%)
Labour: 19422 (52.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5330 (14.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 2652 (7.2%)
Other: 223 (0.6%)
Majority: 10045 (27.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9867 (22.8%)
Labour: 25115 (58.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4968 (11.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 1649 (3.8%)
Referendum: 1662 (3.8%)
Majority: 15248 (35.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Madeleine Moon(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Helen Baker (Conservative)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 70966
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 22.9%
Born outside UK: 3.1%
White: 98.2%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 71.3%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 19.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.5%
Owner-Occupied: 77.7%
Social Housing: 13.9% (Council: 9.8%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 5.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.4%
Euro results in this seat were interesting.
Con – 24.26%
Lab – 20.62%
UKIP – 13.47%
Plaid – 12.98%
LD – 11.05%
Others – 17.16%
Con Maj – 3.64%
Promises to a close run thing at the GE, but LDs would appear to be out of the running here.
Thanks – that’s interesting.
Well it could just mean the Euro elections are particularly unrepresentative,
or that Labour will hold on because no-one else has emerged particularly well.
But I’d have thought there’s a chance the Tories could emerge quite a threat here. – but only an outside I think.
Good result for UKIP to beat both PC and LD.
Bridgend is not a natural part of Wales for strong Plaid support.
South Wales, excepting Cardiff Central, has not been good territory for the LIbDems either for many years. In my view they did very well to get over 20% in 2005 in what is comparatively a Labour/Conservative marginal (bearing in mind that labour has been in the ascendent since 1997). But I suspect much of their vote is a protest and could have gone to UKIP this year.
I agree with Andy that UKIP did well in this seat, and indeed South Wales generally, in the Euroelections, particularly as Plaid offers an alternative nationalist/Eurosceptic offering. As UKIP tends to be identified as an (anti-)European party, it is open to question as to whether their vote will hold up, compared to the Euroelections, in the next General Election.
Can I say that the LDs have held local govt office here in Bridgend in recent times – it has not been of the same voting type as some of the Valley constituencies where it is usually Labour, with “others fighting for the scraps”, as I believe you put it once, Joe.
I might also add that parts of Swansea have been strong for the Lib Dems, and in recent times parts of Newport also, so it is not really true to generalise like this about South Wales, Frederic.
From the Euro figures could this be the first 5-way marginal!
Hi Tim13
The Lib Dems are under pressure at the next GE.
Their best hopes for new seats lie in Newport East and Swansea. Aside from Cardiff Central, which I believe to be safe I think that they could be in for a rough ride in Brecon & Radnor, Montgomery and also in Ceredigion.
I fear that Nick Clegg might be retiring ‘in order to spend more time with his young family’ after the next GE.
Interesting for the next Assembly elections. New Welsh leader Carwyn Jones only has a 2,556 majority. It’s possible that a resurgent Tory party could beat him in 2011.
Not anymore, Labour will hold this easily in 2011 – expect a 5000+ majority on a 40-45% turnout.
In 2010 the Torries will still make in roads into Madaline Moon’s majority next year, but expect her to hold on in everything but a Conservative landslide.
As a born and bred Bridgend man, I totally disagree with the comments that Labour will hold on here and Ms Moon is a shoe-in. Her recent expense claims have been less than welcomed by most of my fellow townspeople. And you have to remember that the recent change of council to Lib Dem control was down to a capitulation in the Labour vote because people in the county borough had got totally disenchanted with the Labour councillors.
I think the Conservatives will regain the initiative in wards such as Porthcawl, Bridgend Town, Litchard whilst Plaid will continue to do well in Laleston, leaving only Cefn Glas and Aberkenfig for Labour – which might even turn to Plaid or Lib Dems.
There’s a by-election here next week. Any news?