Brentwood and Ongar
2010 Results:
Conservative: 28793 (56.91%)
Labour: 4992 (9.87%)
Liberal Democrat: 11872 (23.47%)
BNP: 1447 (2.86%)
UKIP: 2037 (4.03%)
Green: 584 (1.15%)
English Democrat: 491 (0.97%)
Independent: 263 (0.52%)
Others: 113 (0.22%)
Majority: 16921 (33.44%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 24833 (54.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 12057 (26.2%)
Labour: 6949 (15.1%)
Other: 2099 (4.6%)
Majority: 12776 (27.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 23609 (53.5%)
Labour: 6579 (14.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 11997 (27.2%)
UKIP: 1805 (4.1%)
Other: 155 (0.4%)
Majority: 11612 (26.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16558 (38%)
Labour: 5505 (12.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6772 (15.6%)
UKIP: 611 (1.4%)
Other: 14096 (32.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23031 (45.4%)
Labour: 11231 (22.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 13341 (26.3%)
Referendum: 2658 (5.2%)
Other: 465 (0.9%)
Majority: 9690 (19.1%)
Boundary changes: gains North Weald Bassett, loses the village of Matching to Epping Forest.
Profile: A safe Conservative seat that achieved brief prominance in 2001. The constituency is made up the affluent London commuter belt, just outside the border of Greater London in Essex. It Contains the whole of Brentwood council, along with 7 wards from Epping Forest. The seat is suburban around Brentwood, Shenfield and Chipping Ongar, with the rest of the constituency made up of more rural villages and woodland (including part of Epping Forest itself). Brentwood hosts the headquarters of Alan Sugar`s Amstrad and Warley to the South of Brentwood itself houses the UK headquarters of the Ford Motor Company.
In 2001 the Independent MP for Tatton, the former BBC reporter Martin Bell, contested Brentwood and Ongar as an independent. The candidacy was largely the result of a split in the local Conservative party in response to the Peniel Pentecostal Church. The independent conservatives claimed that the local Conservative branch had been infiltrated and taken over by the Penial Pentecostal Church, a controversial evangelical Christian church in Pilgrim`s Hatch, and invited Bell to stand on their behalf.
Current MP: Eric Pickles(Conservative) born 1952, Keighley. Educated at Greenhead Grammar and Leeds Polytechnic. A Bradford councillor for 12 years, Pickles is the former leader of Bradford Council between 1988-1990. First elected as MP for Brentwood and Ongar in 1992. Was a Vice-Chairman of the Conservative party during the last Tory government. Formerly Deputy Chairman of the Conservative party and Shadow Minister for local government, shadow Secretary of State for communities and local government 2007-2009, chairman of the Conservative party since 2009 (more information at They work for you)
Eric Pickles(Conservative) born 1952, Keighley. Educated at Greenhead Grammar and Leeds Polytechnic. A Bradford councillor for 12 years, Pickles is the former leader of Bradford Council between 1988-1990. First elected as MP for Brentwood and Ongar in 1992. Was a Vice-Chairman of the Conservative party during the last Tory government. Formerly Deputy Chairman of the Conservative party and Shadow Minister for local government, shadow Secretary of State for communities and local government 2007-2009, chairman of the Conservative party since 2009 (more information at They work for you)
Heidi Benzing (Labour) Union official with the GMB
David Kendall (Liberal Democrat) Brentwood councillor since 1991 and leader of the Liberal Democrat group. Contested Brentwood and Ongar 2001.
Jess Barnecutt (Green) Michael McGough (UKIP) 
Paul Morris (BNP) Educated at Davenant Foundation School. Self employed builder and sub-contractor.
Robin Tilbrook (English Democrat) Solicitor. Founder and chairman of the English Democrats. Contested Eastern region in 2009 European elections.Danny Attfield (Independent)James Sapwell (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87108
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 21.7%
Over 60: 23.7%
Born outside UK: 5.8%
White: 96.8%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 78.8%
Hindu: 0.7%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 20.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.1%
Owner-Occupied: 78.2%
Social Housing: 12.6% (Council: 10.4%, Housing Ass.: 2.1%)
Privately Rented: 6.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.6%
Too much was made of that really – Labour did for some years hold 9 of the 15 council seats in Margaret Thatcher’s constituency, but they never gained a plurality of the vote over the Conservatives & no-one ever seriously supposed that she was in actual danger. It was merely symbolic if anything. Even in the unlikely event of Labour seismically sweeping everything before them in Brentwood (lol) we would still have the problem of Ongar & its surrounds which are pretty terrible for the party (as if Brentwood & its satellites aren’t bad enough already).
In actual fact,. while what you say is generally true, while Labour were absent from Brentwood council for a number of years before 2011, they were not absent from this constituency because they continued to hold the ward of Shelley which is in Ongar and was and remains the only Labour held ward in Epping Forest district (even as they have lost all their seats in the Debden area)
“Too much was made of that really – Labour did for some years hold 9 of the 15 council seats in Margaret Thatcher’s constituency, but they never gained a plurality of the vote over the Conservatives & no-one ever seriously supposed that she was in actual danger.”
Agreed – thumping Tory majorities in the Finchley and Friern Barnet wards more than made up for the Labour gains but still I can at least understand why a big deal was made out of it. Making a deal out of a couple of seats out of masses in a Leader’s seat by contrast is clearly silly.
XXX
I always thought the Shelley ward (which Rallings and Thrasher erroneously said was in Epping town for a time in the Almanac) was interesting…I assume it is some sort of marooned Council Estate in the middle of scenic Essex Countryside?
It was Robert Waller’s Almanac I think.
It isn’t really an isolated community in the style of somewhere like Berinsfield in Oxfrodshire. It is basically just that part of Ongar north of the A414. I went to have a look at it a couple of years back as I thought it must be quite special to continuously elect a Labour councillor, but it isn’t. Certainly it is mostly council housing (council built anyway) but it looked pretty well kempt and respectable and with fairly decent cars parked in its streets. It certainly looked a lot nicer than some of the estates in Loughton or Waltham Abbey where Labour’s vote has evaporated of late
Sounds a lot like Berinsfield then! I know Berinsfield quite well, and that also gained an influx of owner occupied housing in the 80s as new homes were built (convenient if you drive for Reading and Oxford), and council houses were sold off. Still, its single-member ward on SODC remained solidly Labour (I think the Labour man may have been personally popular). However it now finds itself in a ward (still called Berinsfield) utterly swamped by surrounding Conservative villages.
In 2011 Labour didn’t even bother standing there (split Con/Ind).
Probably similar demographically yes – I don’t know Berinsfield at all but I remember Robert Waller describing it as a ‘raw little overspill estate’. Perhaps in the circumstances we shouldn’t take the Almanac to be gospel. It does evoke certain images which don’t seem to be borne out by a perusal on Google street view. Still he wrote that nearly thirty years ago and I can imagine it is the sort of place which has changed alot in the intervening years.
What I was getting at in terms of the difference is that whereas Berinsfield is a self-contained township surrounded by countryside and a separate parish, Shelley is just the northern part of Chipping Ongar and and a part of Ongar parish. Perhaps I misunderstood your use of the term ‘marooned’ to describe it’s physical state whereas you actually meant in a demographic or electoral sense
It probably was like that once…but by the time I was a small child (mid 80s) plenty of 80s owner occ housing had been built.
Certainly true that it remains significantly less attractive and rustic (and cheaper!) than surrounding villages though, and for several years unitil 1995 (and especially in 1991 after the excision to Oxford of 3-seat Littlemore) provided one of only a handful of Labour Councillors on SODC (and the only one in Henley).
Prediction for 2015-
Pickes (Tory)- 28, 936 (57.5%, +0.6%)
Lib Dem- 10, 544 (20.9%, -2.6%)
Labour- 6, 832 (13.5%, +3.6%)
Others- 3, 944 (7.8%, -2.0%)
Con hold.
Turnout- 50, 256.
Majority- 18, 392 (36.5%)
Swing- +1.6% From Lib Dem to Con.
Probably is a reasonable forecast – although there is some range of course either side of that.
I think the LDs will be a distant but still clear second here.
We can’t rule out larger Labour (or Tory) increases though depending on the national position nearer.
You’re probably about right on the Others.