318 Responses to “Brentford and Isleworth”

1. Tim Jones

   I’m not that familar with the area although I do spend quite a few weekends in Chiswick although I don’t think I’ve ever even been to Brentford or Isleworth, just past there, and they do seem very different

   Chiswick is very pleasant and fairly up-market, but I would thought, and I might well be wrong, it more comparable to somewhere like Hampstead or Primrose Hill as it certainly has a bit of a radical, left-wing middle class inteligentsia feel to it

   The several groups of people I know who live there certainly wouldn’t be Tory voters

   September 5th, 2012 at 6:35 pm
2. Barnaby Marder

   Just look at the local election results Tim – you will readily see that all 3 Chiswick community wards, Chiswick Riverside, Chiswick Homefields & Turnham Green are a good 2-1 Tory v Labour. The first-named has never been won by Labour AFAIK, the second has in the past been split between the 2 parties but not since the 2002 boundary change and the last was won outright by Labour in 1994 but lost outright in 1998 & not regained since. There are of course some “intellectual” anti-Tory voters but they are definitely in the minority; in Chiswick Riverside they are often split right down the middle between Lab & LD but the LDs are weaker in the other 2.

   September 5th, 2012 at 9:29 pm
3. H.Hemmelig

   Like Hampstead and Richmond, Chiswick is a place where the arty and intellectual middle class is being rapidly priced out by the high earning banker middle class.

   This has tipped the area from being quite Tory inclined to being rock solid Tory. It will vote 60-70% for the Conservatives now even in years which are bad for them nationally.

   September 5th, 2012 at 11:07 pm
4. Robin Hood

   @ Andy JS…

   You are correct – the seat has not been swinging against Labour as much as some parts of London. On the basis of the recent GLA election results, Labour would have regained it but not by much. There are one or two members of the local Labour Party who seem to think that with the removal of the Ann Keen factor the seat will automatically return to Labour, but there has only been a relatively small swing back to Labour between the 2010 general election and the 2012 GLA election. I continue to hold the view that whilst the expenses issue may have damaged her, it only did so to the extent of removing her personal vote as an incumbent (and the fact that the Tories also out-polled Labour in the 2010 local council elections bears this out). On the other hand, Mary Macleod will now have had a chance to cultivate a personal vote of her own (as most newly-minted incumbents do).

   @ Joe James B…

   You, too, are correct. There are some parts of the constituency where Heathrow expansion is popular. It certainly isn’t in Chiswick, but in the Hounslow end of the seat some people do favour it, for their livelihoods depend upon the airport continuing to thrive. Whilst canvassing for Ann Keen in Hounslow Central Ward in 2010, I tried highlighting to a first-time Indian voter the fact that Ann had successfully negotiated a reduction in night flights. Quite politely he pointed out to me that he was employed at the airport and said something along the lines of “We need our night flights to keep the hub viable”. I then tried to backtrack by explaining to him that Ann had taken a considerable amount of flak for refusing to vote against a third runway, something her Tory and Lib Dem opponents were committed to opposing. One small tactical crumb of comfort in 2010 was that the pro-expansion vote might, in theory, have been monopolised by Labour (whereas the anti-Heathrow vote may have been split between Tories, Lib Dems and Greens). In practice, though, few people vote on just one issue and for those that do I would say that a party that comes out in favour of a third runway would probably be at a minor electoral disadvantage in this seat.

   I don’t wish to stereotype, but most Asian voters in the Hounslow area were likely to vote Labour anyway (for reasons of tradition). Overall, there is more interest in the Heathrow issue in Chiswick than in the rest of the constituency for the simple reason that Chiswick has a population which is more interested in political issues. You only have to look at the town’s highly popular internet discussion forum to see that its residents complain very loudly about anything they don’t like, and are very ‘plugged in’ to the issues of the day, both local and national. In contrast, the Asian community in the west of the constituency tend to be less interested and just get on with their own lives: in short, they put up with more and complain about it less. For this reason, and given that Chiswick is the main source of Tory strength in the constituency, it is probably Mary Macleod who would have most to lose should her party reverse its position on this issue – though I don’t agree with her that it’s a make-or-break issue electorally.

   On a more general note, I agree that the two ends of the constituency are diverging. On general election day, whilst knocking up, I was asked by an elector to take their sealed postal vote to one of the Hounslow Central polling stations. This was late afternoon, and there were queues forming. Most of those in line were of Indian origin (whereas I think the 2001 census monitor still had this ward as just about mostly white) .All is not completely lost for the Tories here, though: the largest minority religion is Hindu, and they are thought to be less solidly Labour than Muslims or Sikhs. Still, my canvass returns looked pretty good (though far from solid) for Ann Keen among all three Asian communities here in 2010.

   September 7th, 2012 at 2:54 pm
5. Robin Hood

   Andy JS –

   Sorry, that should have read “the seat has not been swinging against the TORIES as much as some parts of London”.

   September 7th, 2012 at 2:56 pm
6. Jason Harcourt

   On the Heathrow issue, the Hounslow Chronicle is reporting that pressure is being put on the council to introduce a referendum on expansion (as has been promised in Richmond and Hillingdon) which, I guess, would then form the “official” opinion on expansion from the borough.

   September 21st, 2012 at 10:28 am
7. Shaun Bennett

   Good idea. Richmond and others should do the same.

   September 21st, 2012 at 11:40 am
8. Jason Harcourt

   They are (as are Hillingdon) – hence the pressure on Hounslow to follow suit.

   September 21st, 2012 at 3:34 pm
9. Barnaby Marder

   I wasn’t aware of such a referendum in my borough, I must say.

   September 21st, 2012 at 8:10 pm
10. Joe James B

    Robin Hood – thanks for your interesting reply,
    I read it before,
    sorry for not acknowledging

    I think a sizeable part of the Lib Dem vote may still come from Chiswick
    although not as strong as in the 1980s.

    Perhaps the Cons may have a bit of a chance squeezing that then.

    November 13th, 2012 at 6:54 pm
11. Andy JS

    Census results, white British, 2001 / 2011:

    Brentford: 63.9% / 46.1%
    Chiswick Homefields: 67.9% / 59.6%
    Chiswick Riverside: 67.4% / 62.3%
    Hounslow Central: 36.8% / 15.8%
    Hounslow Heath: 32.5% / 15.7%
    Hounslow South: 60.1% / 41.1%
    Isleworth: 66.0% / 51.0%
    Osterley & Spring Grove: 52.2% / 30.4%
    Syon: 68.3% / 47.9%
    Turnham Green: 63.8% / 53.5%

    Brentford & Isleworth: 57.6% / 41.0%

    White overall, Brentford & Isleworth:
    2001: 70.0%
    2011: 57.8%

    February 1st, 2013 at 11:30 pm
12. Robin Hood

    @ Andy JS

    Interesting figures, thanks. As with Feltham & Heston I am surprised at the extent (though not the direction) of the shift. Osterley & Spring Grove is particularly interesting as it has always been Conservative – and elected three Tory Councillors as recently as 2010. I believe that in the 2012 GLA election it was neck-and-neck between Labour and Tory in the ward. This suggests that the Conservatives must be pinning down a significant chunk of the non-White British vote. It is, after all, a very upper middle class ward and I suspect for this reason that its hugely increasing Indian vote is not going to simply beat the drums for Labour.

    I have mentioned previously the way the two ends of the constituency are splitting apart, with the Chiswick area becoming better for the Tories. The comparatively small change in Chiswick’s racial profile may be testimony to this, though it is probably also due to that area becoming increasingly gentrified.

    The tactic of Mary Macleod in being a 100% Cameron loyalist is probably her best hope of holding a seat which is becoming increasingly diverse.

    February 2nd, 2013 at 12:11 am
13. Barnaby Marder

    Good analysis. Osterley is a place where many Indians aspire to live – it has very pleasant roads & houses. I think it will become a Labour-dominated ward in a few years but will be very close in 2014. Labour has very occasionally elected the odd councillor in the past in its very best years, and there was actually a dead heat between a Labour & a Conservative candidate in 1994.

    February 2nd, 2013 at 8:52 am
14. richard

    That Osterley was Conservative in 2010 while Isleworth and Syon were Labour does show that ‘class’ voting applies significantly.

    I assume that many of the upper-middle class Asians of Osterley are successful businessment / professionals from the general Hounslow area rather than the sort of public sector / media / arts professionals that abound in parts of south and east London.

    February 2nd, 2013 at 10:44 am
15. richard

    On a more general issue London is now largely and increasingly different to the country as a whole.

    Not just on demographic terms but on economic. With extremes in close proximity.

    As the political overclass is also increasingly London dominated it will increasingly tend to view London as ‘normal’ and much of the rest of the country as the ‘abnormal’.

    Which will lead to growing political tensions.

    February 2nd, 2013 at 10:48 am
16. Andy JS

    It must be a concern if lower middle-class and upper working-class people are being squeezed out of London altogether so that it becomes a city of rich and poor people with nothing in between.

    February 2nd, 2013 at 11:02 am
17. richard

    Andy

    I made the same point yesturday (but can’t remember on which constituency).

    Did you read it or come up with the same idea independently?

    As a personal anecdote I hear far more ‘cockney’ accents in the North now than a decade ago.

    February 2nd, 2013 at 11:29 am
18. Andy JS

    It wasn’t my original idea, I’ve heard it a lot from various sources like TV, radio, newspapers. I don’t think I read your comment on the subject.

    February 2nd, 2013 at 12:19 pm