Comments on: Brent Central

By: Atiq Malik

Atiq Malik — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:50:02 +0000

Dollis Hill ward councillor passes away

01/02/2012

Brent Council has sadly announced the death of Dollis Hill ward councillor Alec Castle.

Alec Castle was a councillor on Brent Council for almost ten years.

He was first elected in May 1998, serving until May 2002 for Tokyngton ward.

He was then elected again in May 2006 and was re-elected in May 2010 for Dollis Hill ward.

He served on the Executive of Brent Council, as Chair of the Overview and Scrutiny Committee, and Chair of the council’s Willesden Area Consultative Forum, as well as on the Board of Brent Housing Partnership (BHP).

http://www.brent.gov.uk/home.nsf/news/LBB-1612

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 06:16:55 +0000

Cannock is certainly on a long-term trend, I think linked to the gradual but very definite Conservative strengthening in Aldridge-Brownhills next door.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 23:37:08 +0000

I’d have thought Cannock could be on a long term trend, as Andy says.

But I think the Tories are most likely to be under pressure in seats closer to conurbations where there is (still) a large public sector.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 21:43:20 +0000

Replying to HH.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 21:42:04 +0000

You’re probably right. Although there is evidence that Staffordshire is swinging towards the Conservative relative to the rest of the country so maybe Cannock Chase could be a Tory hold. They increased their majority there in 1987 for example. Carlisle may pick up more Tory areas in the boundary review. I realise though that your point was a general one rather than a particular one about those two constituencies.

By: A Brown

A Brown — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 19:47:49 +0000

Could happen but I think only gaining 2.5% on the 2010 result is the best case result the tories can hope for.

By: calumsmith_0308

calumsmith_0308 — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 19:37:18 +0000

I reckon Labour will pick up support mainly from disaffected LDs but very little from the Conservatives.

I think that in some LD-held seats such as Southport and Aberdeenshire West/Kincardine some LD votes could in fact move in our direction. After all, these are former Tory areas. As I say though, there will be inevitably be Labour surges in their former strongholds, Burnley for instance.

The question really is whether this surge with Labour + disaffected LD will outweigh the Tory + OTHER disaffected LD vote in 2015.

A possible outcome could be:

Conservative – 40%
Labour – 35%
LD – 15%

But it could also be:

Labour – 40%
Conservative – 35%
LD – 10-15%

By: A Brown

A Brown — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 16:46:16 +0000

‘Before we predict a Labour majority/minority govt, we need to see whether or not they gain seats in by-elections first. Anyway if Nick Clegg is replaced by a left of centre LibDem such as Tim Farron, then that could harm Labour as then it will present the LibDems as a rival to Labour in terms of policy.’

Perhaps, I don’t think Clegg will lead the LDs into the next election but he probably won’t be replaced until late 2013 at the earliest.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 16:32:54 +0000

But Andy, you forget that many of the “places that matter” are indeed former Labour heartlands – the likes of Cannock and Carlisle. It could well prove very difficult for the Conservatives to hold such seats as Labour supporters come home from the Lib Dems and BNP, and indeed from the Tories in some cases.

The Tories will most likely keep marginals in the south and parts of the midlands, but this is not enough to prevent Labour becoming the largest party.

The insults hurled at Neil Kinnock at election time in the 1980s and 1992 may not be so effective against Miliband. It was fair enough to say that Kinnock was weak, lacked backbone and was waffly compared to Thatcher, but I’m sorry to say a lot of the public will think those things about Cameron and Clegg.

We could very easily sleepwalk into another Labour government if the economic recovery is feeble.

By: Joseph Brayson

Joseph Brayson — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 16:28:31 +0000

Before we predict a Labour majority/minority govt, we need to see whether or not they gain seats in by-elections first. Anyway if Nick Clegg is replaced by a left of centre LibDem such as Tim Farron, then that could harm Labour as then it will present the LibDems as a rival to Labour in terms of policy.