Brent Central
2010 Results:
Conservative: 5068 (11.18%)
Labour: 18681 (41.22%)
Liberal Democrat: 20026 (44.18%)
Green: 668 (1.47%)
Christian: 488 (1.08%)
Independent: 163 (0.36%)
Others: 230 (0.51%)
Majority: 1345 (2.96%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18383 (50.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 11776 (32.1%)
Conservative: 4901 (13.4%)
Other: 1636 (4.5%)
Majority: 6608 (18%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 4485 (15.1%)
Labour: 17501 (58.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 6175 (20.7%)
Green: 957 (3.2%)
Other: 646 (2.2%)
Majority: 11326 (38.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3604 (12.6%)
Labour: 20984 (73.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 3098 (10.8%)
Other: 951 (3.3%)
Majority: 17380 (60.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5489 (15.9%)
Labour: 25180 (73%)
Liberal Democrat: 2670 (7.7%)
Referendum: 497 (1.4%)
Other: 662 (1.9%)
Majority: 19691 (57.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: This was one of only two seats to be fought by two sitting MPs in the 2010 general election (the other being Poplar and Limehouse). In this case Sarah Teather, the MP for the abolished Brent East seat chose to stand against the Labour incumbent of Brent South, Dawn Butler, rather than contest the Hampstead and Kilburn seat which on paper appeared to be a better chance for the Liberal Democrats. In the event Teather’s gamble paid off.
Current MP: Sarah Teather (Liberal Democrat) born 1974, London. Educated at Cambridge University. First elected to Brent East at the 2003 by-election, becoming the youngest MP in the House of Commons. Liberal Democrat Education spokesman 2006-2007, Universities spokesman after the split in the departments following Gordon Brown becoming Prime Minister and Lib Dem shadow secretary of state on business since Nick Clegg became leader in December 2007.
Sachin Rajput (Conservative) Barnet councillor.
Dawn Butler (Labour) Born 1969, Forest Gate. Prior to her election worked as a trade union officer. First elected as MP for Brent South 2005. PPS to Jane Kennedy 2005-2006. Government whip 2008. Minister for Young Citizens and Youth Engagement since 2009 (more information at They work for you)Sarah Teather (Liberal Democrat) born 1974, London. Educated at Cambridge University. First elected to Brent East at the 2003 by-election, becoming the youngest MP in the House of Commons. Liberal Democrat Education spokesman 2006-2007, Universities spokesman after the split in the departments following Gordon Brown becoming Prime Minister and Lib Dem shadow secretary of state on business since Nick Clegg became leader in December 2007. Currently the MP for Brent East, which disappears under boundary changes, Teather has confirmed she will be standing in Brent Central at the next election. 
Shahrar Ali (Green) Educated at UCL. Green Party London Policy Coordinator. Contested Brent East 2005. Will contest Brent and Harrow at 2008 London Assembly elections.
Abdi Duale (Respect) Dean McCastree (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 114487
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 22.9%
Over 60: 14.7%
Born outside UK: 47%
White: 47%
Black: 25.9%
Asian: 19.8%
Mixed: 4.1%
Other: 3.3%
Christian: 54%
Hindu: 11%
Jewish: 1.2%
Muslim: 12.6%
Full time students: 8.3%
Graduates 16-74: 28.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.3%
Owner-Occupied: 48.8%
Social Housing: 29.5% (Council: 11.2%, Housing Ass.: 18.4%)
Privately Rented: 18.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
‘Before we predict a Labour majority/minority govt, we need to see whether or not they gain seats in by-elections first. Anyway if Nick Clegg is replaced by a left of centre LibDem such as Tim Farron, then that could harm Labour as then it will present the LibDems as a rival to Labour in terms of policy.’
Perhaps, I don’t think Clegg will lead the LDs into the next election but he probably won’t be replaced until late 2013 at the earliest.
I reckon Labour will pick up support mainly from disaffected LDs but very little from the Conservatives.
I think that in some LD-held seats such as Southport and Aberdeenshire West/Kincardine some LD votes could in fact move in our direction. After all, these are former Tory areas. As I say though, there will be inevitably be Labour surges in their former strongholds, Burnley for instance.
The question really is whether this surge with Labour + disaffected LD will outweigh the Tory + OTHER disaffected LD vote in 2015.
A possible outcome could be:
Conservative – 40%
Labour – 35%
LD – 15%
But it could also be:
Labour – 40%
Conservative – 35%
LD – 10-15%
Could happen but I think only gaining 2.5% on the 2010 result is the best case result the tories can hope for.
You’re probably right. Although there is evidence that Staffordshire is swinging towards the Conservative relative to the rest of the country so maybe Cannock Chase could be a Tory hold. They increased their majority there in 1987 for example. Carlisle may pick up more Tory areas in the boundary review. I realise though that your point was a general one rather than a particular one about those two constituencies.
Replying to HH.
I’d have thought Cannock could be on a long term trend, as Andy says.
But I think the Tories are most likely to be under pressure in seats closer to conurbations where there is (still) a large public sector.
Cannock is certainly on a long-term trend, I think linked to the gradual but very definite Conservative strengthening in Aldridge-Brownhills next door.
Dollis Hill ward councillor passes away
01/02/2012
Brent Council has sadly announced the death of Dollis Hill ward councillor Alec Castle.
Alec Castle was a councillor on Brent Council for almost ten years.
He was first elected in May 1998, serving until May 2002 for Tokyngton ward.
He was then elected again in May 2006 and was re-elected in May 2010 for Dollis Hill ward.
He served on the Executive of Brent Council, as Chair of the Overview and Scrutiny Committee, and Chair of the council’s Willesden Area Consultative Forum, as well as on the Board of Brent Housing Partnership (BHP).
http://www.brent.gov.uk/home.nsf/news/LBB-1612