Brent Central
2010 Results:
Conservative: 5068 (11.18%)
Labour: 18681 (41.22%)
Liberal Democrat: 20026 (44.18%)
Green: 668 (1.47%)
Christian: 488 (1.08%)
Independent: 163 (0.36%)
Others: 230 (0.51%)
Majority: 1345 (2.96%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18383 (50.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 11776 (32.1%)
Conservative: 4901 (13.4%)
Other: 1636 (4.5%)
Majority: 6608 (18%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 4485 (15.1%)
Labour: 17501 (58.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 6175 (20.7%)
Green: 957 (3.2%)
Other: 646 (2.2%)
Majority: 11326 (38.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3604 (12.6%)
Labour: 20984 (73.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 3098 (10.8%)
Other: 951 (3.3%)
Majority: 17380 (60.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5489 (15.9%)
Labour: 25180 (73%)
Liberal Democrat: 2670 (7.7%)
Referendum: 497 (1.4%)
Other: 662 (1.9%)
Majority: 19691 (57.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: This was one of only two seats to be fought by two sitting MPs in the 2010 general election (the other being Poplar and Limehouse). In this case Sarah Teather, the MP for the abolished Brent East seat chose to stand against the Labour incumbent of Brent South, Dawn Butler, rather than contest the Hampstead and Kilburn seat which on paper appeared to be a better chance for the Liberal Democrats. In the event Teather’s gamble paid off.
Current MP: Sarah Teather (Liberal Democrat) born 1974, London. Educated at Cambridge University. First elected to Brent East at the 2003 by-election, becoming the youngest MP in the House of Commons. Liberal Democrat Education spokesman 2006-2007, Universities spokesman after the split in the departments following Gordon Brown becoming Prime Minister and Lib Dem shadow secretary of state on business since Nick Clegg became leader in December 2007.
Sachin Rajput (Conservative) Barnet councillor.
Dawn Butler (Labour) Born 1969, Forest Gate. Prior to her election worked as a trade union officer. First elected as MP for Brent South 2005. PPS to Jane Kennedy 2005-2006. Government whip 2008. Minister for Young Citizens and Youth Engagement since 2009 (more information at They work for you)Sarah Teather (Liberal Democrat) born 1974, London. Educated at Cambridge University. First elected to Brent East at the 2003 by-election, becoming the youngest MP in the House of Commons. Liberal Democrat Education spokesman 2006-2007, Universities spokesman after the split in the departments following Gordon Brown becoming Prime Minister and Lib Dem shadow secretary of state on business since Nick Clegg became leader in December 2007. Currently the MP for Brent East, which disappears under boundary changes, Teather has confirmed she will be standing in Brent Central at the next election. 
Shahrar Ali (Green) Educated at UCL. Green Party London Policy Coordinator. Contested Brent East 2005. Will contest Brent and Harrow at 2008 London Assembly elections.
Abdi Duale (Respect) Dean McCastree (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 114487
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 22.9%
Over 60: 14.7%
Born outside UK: 47%
White: 47%
Black: 25.9%
Asian: 19.8%
Mixed: 4.1%
Other: 3.3%
Christian: 54%
Hindu: 11%
Jewish: 1.2%
Muslim: 12.6%
Full time students: 8.3%
Graduates 16-74: 28.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.3%
Owner-Occupied: 48.8%
Social Housing: 29.5% (Council: 11.2%, Housing Ass.: 18.4%)
Privately Rented: 18.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
Much as I’d like to see a broken Lib Dem party of course. But it shows the Tories need to actually win clearly.
I think Hemmelig is talking a lot of sense on the LD-Lab marginals and Birmingham Yardley is the only one where the LDs will be able to put a substantial squeeze on the tories (because Hemming is a consistent centre right Lib dem) .
I reckon:
LD holds
Bermondsey
Bristol W
Leeds NW
Toss up
Birmingham Yardley (leaning slightly Labour)
Labour gains:
Bradford E
Brent C
Burnley
Cambridge
Cardiff C
Edinburgh W (outside SNP chance)
East Dunbartonshire
Hornsey
Manchester W
Norwich S
Redcar
(and of course Clegg should retain Hallam with a reduced majority of 15% over Labour).
On Brent C Labour really *should* be able to gain this with a majority of 6000 if they put up a sensible candidate.
I don’t think Hughes will necessarily survive in Bermondsey. He has had close shaves over the years, particularly in 1987 and 1997. Other than that this has been a reliably safe seat for him, but I suspect his luck may begin to run out, and Lib Dem votes will go to Labour, which is really where the constituency naturally lies.
The Results
What you have failed to pick up on in Southwark & Bermondsey is the massive gentrification going on by the river.
All the way from London Bridge down to Rotherhithe and Surrey Docks, the riverfront is unrecognisable from 5 years ago and is now crammed with bankers and yuppies in million pound apartments.
Boris carried several of the riverside wards this year and narrowly missed several more.
There is clearly potential for a much stronger Tory vote in the seat going forward. For the time being they will be heavily outvoted by the grotty inland areas, but in 2015 there is potential for the Tories to get 25% or so.
Simon Hughes’ survival will depend on whether he can get the yuppies to vote tactically for him.
While I will admit that the Tories did get their highest vote share since 1979 in 2010, this really should be a safe Labour seat but for Hughes’ continued presence. The swing to Labour in 2005 might be repeated, although if the same swing was to happen (5.9%), Hughes would still hold with a majority of about 2,000. But if the Liberal Democrats are to lose seats on a wide scale in 2015, (And this is all in truth mere surmising) then I would stick my neck out and say Hughes will lose.
Re: Brent Central
If Dawn Butler is the candidate here, then the election will HAVE to be fought on national issues for Labour.
For all the successes in the borough for Labour since 2010, people still remember the reports over Ms Butler’s expenses and will use the Labour Council’s record of cuts (forced by Westminster) to press home their campaign. I’m sure the Lib Dem muck-spreading operation would be in force in 2015 to make sure voters are constantly reminded.
That said Labour would have the coalition’s record to bring to the doorstep against Teather.
To be honest, a Butler-Teather rematch maybe decided on a number of factors that are hard to predict. All I can predict in the event of a rematch is that Labour will be much more energised to campaign here than in 2010, when they struggled to get the volunteers out in force for them. If that is matched by any shot in the arm the Lib Dems would get by facing Dawn Butler again, then you can expect this constituency to see one of the nastiest fights of the 2015 election.
(And it will be on these boundaries, Willesden is a Dead Parrot)
Personally, I’m of the belief that a baggage-free candidate would have no trouble defeating Sarah Teather here. Yes, Ms Teather has done well to be here for what would be 12 years by 2015, but wards such as Harlesden and Stonebridge in the old Brent South are too Labour inclined and too many voters there will be put off by the antics of the Coalition for her to repeat the trick of taking ENOUGH voters away in those wards to take the seat overall.
As H.Hemmlig said, Labour should be able to field a competent, baggage-free, Black Labour candidate to take this seat with ease.
In the Evening Standard today, Dawn Butler said she is planning to stand again here, with “senior Labour MPs” offering their support. So there’s a bit of hope left for Teather.
Shahid Malik is also said to be planning a comeback.
Labour would be crazy to allow these two back.
Re: Lib Dems in General
I think the Lib Dems can do better than the Uniform National Swing polls suggest if between now and 2015, they can convince left-ish voters in Tory/LD marginals that they are a viable, more humane alternative to both the Conservatives and Labour, and not merely a fat-free substitute for either.
Those Labour voters who tactically voted LD in seats such as Eastbourne and Wells are better off holding their noses if they want to avoid a Tory MP for their area, and it is really only with these voters that the Clegg/Alexander project of creating another party of the centre can work electorally.
They are finished in seats where Labour are currently second, even Bristol West with its 11,000+ majority must be seen as a lost cause given the huge student population there (although i’d say Bermondsey is currently too close to call). They will lose right-ish voters to the Tories and Clegg has made it clear he has already written off those seeking a left alternative to Labour, which means 2015 is about pitching an ethical alternative to the Conservative Party which isn’t merely a variant of Labour.
The only people it could appeal to are voters in the South West contests where Labour currently don’t feature, yet still decides the results in many constituencies.
Between now and 2015, LD attempts at ‘differentiation’ within the Coalition should be pitched towards those voters. If successful, it could save them a significant number of MP’s (maybe enough to fit the parliamentary party into a small coach, instead of a taxi).
No holding of my nose, now or previously. I am glad that I supported the Labour Party in Richmond Park. I voted for the party I wanted in government, the LDs won’t win here (in my seat) again anyway unless there is a major boundary change, and I don’t have the fact that I voted for a party I intensely dislike on my conscience.
The Lib Dem brand is so toxic in Labour’s heartlands that it will have the effect of putting seats where they have been challenging Labour well beyond reach in 2015, possibly forever eg.
Islington South & Finsbury
Liverpool Wavertree
Chesterfield
Rochdale
City of Durham
Newcastle upon Tyne East
Hull North
Sheffield Central
Oldham East & Saddleworth
Oxford East
Roma Austin talks a lot of sense on the LDs prospects.
I’m strongly of the view that they are capable of retaining about 35 seats even if they sink to 14% nationally.
I suspect Labour will struggle to get more than 10% in seats such as Eastbourne, Cornwall N, Wells etc
How the Lib Dems perform at the next GE in the seats mentioned above and in others will depend principally on three factors.
The toxicity of the Lib Dem brand among left leaning voters. There is no doubt that it is pretty toxic now, and there are certainly erstwhile Lib Demmers from 2010 that are estranged form the party for good. However there is a chance that in three years time some lefties will hold the nose and vote Lib Dem as them as a lesser of multiple evils.
The extent to which Tory voters will be willing to vote tactically Lib Dem in places where the Tories have no chance. Historically Tories have been less keen on tactical voting for The Lib Dems than Labour supporters with the former assuming that the Lib Dems were no more than an annex of the Labour Party (that was certainly true in the Ashdown years). This may change post coalition.
The final factor will be the extent to which in certain areas the Lib Dem activist base has been weakened by councillors being defeated and/or defecting. In Chesterfield we have seen one Lib Dem councillor defeated in 2011 switch to UKIP, and two serving councillors (David and Paul Stone now sitting as independents).
15 to 16 is my guess for them in 2015 which is marginally above 1979 but given that is all they have had in locals since the last general election I think about 13 percent is a credible possibility. Lower than that I cannot really see although I would like it
Most likely scenario is probably 15% or so
(e.g. 10.5% in Scotland, 12.5% in Wales and 16% in England).
It is tricky because there clearly are areas where their votes are almost falling away completely to about 4pc and that is worse than 1979. Central scotland seems to be one such area. But there are clearly other areas where they will be only down a bit
It’s worth remembering that a majority of Lib Dem MPs are still far more popular with their constituents than the national party as a whole, and have strong personal votes that are likely to hold up, even if they do sink as low as 14% in the popular vote
Personally, I think the lib Dems will be a couple of pts up on this, with Tories and Labour neck and neck come polling day.
Yes they will probably have 30 to 40 seats depending a bit on boundaries – it is hard to tell though. I think C can win though.
I’m with Tim and JJB here, I don’t think the LDs will do that bad come 2015. They should hold Southwark and Bermondsey, even if it is a bit close. This seat can go either way. Dawn Butler has links to the area and will definately put up a good fight. If I were voting in this seat I would probably go for Teather however (after the Tory candidate obviously)
As for Eastboune, Wells and those South West seats – the Tories should be working those seats robustly to ensure that we win a majority in 2015.
Wells is probably doomed although I expect the LDs to not lose by more than 2000 there.
I think the LDs will hold Eastbourne by the skin of their teeth (even if the greens stand) as the 2010 result there was a perfect mirror of the 2007 result.
Given her comments today i wonder if teather has considered the possibility of standing as the labour candidate here next time?
She certainly seems to have prepared ideal grounds for a defection and at the right time in the parliament to be selected for labour if she wanted on a ‘i sinned but now i am repenting’ ticket.
Maybe we haven’t seen the last of teather after all.
More likely that she realises that, now she isn’t a Minister, the greater distance she can put between herself & the Government, the greater her chances of saving this seat. I hope not, and I hope to goodness she doesn’t seek the Labour nomination!
I doubt Teather could get nominated by Labour having actually defended the government surprisingly robustly at the despatch box.
(much more so, to be fair than Cable).
Perhaps her best bet is to make it seem so inevitable Labour are going to win here that they make a huge error like re-selecting Dawn Butler.
I read that Dawn Butler would seek Labour nomination again!
Teather isn’t very popular among Labour voters, largely because she appeared to backflip on so many issues after clearly fighting a left wing campaign. I would be surprised if she defects but never rule anything out
It wouldn’t do for the Tories to field a candidate here and for them to indicate strongly to whom their vote should go to.
If Teather can build a strong enough in seat ground base and absorb all anti-Labour/Butler feeling she could defy a national swing even as low as 14%.
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Dollis Hill: 25.1% / 14.3%
Dudden Hill: 28.6% / 18.6%
Harlesden: 23.3% / 13.9%
Kensal Green: 33.9% / 25.7%
Mapesbury: 39.6% / 29.5%
Stonebridge: 20.6% / 11.8%
Tokyngton: 18.3% / 8.5%
Welsh Harp: 30.0% / 16.1%
Willesden Green: 30.8% / 20.0%
Brent Central: 27.7% / 17.6%
White overall, Brent Central:
2001: 47.0%
2011: 38.8%
So non-British white is significantly higher than British white.
That’s right. The full figures for 2011 are as follows:
White British: 24,132
White Irish: 6,497
White Gypsy/Irish Traveller: 211
White Other: 22,418
In other words:
White British: 24,132
Non-White British: 29,126
Out of the gay marriages no voters, this MP seems the most surprising.
She is catholic though, so I shouldnt have been too suprised. The no voters among Labours seem to be elderly male and with little formal education (Old Labour?).
7 of the 22 Labour MPs voting against represent Scottish constituencies. (Scotland of course is not affected by this legislation).
Why are ANY Scottish MPs voting on this bill in the first place?? It’s nothing to do with Scotland whatsoever. They really should stay away from things that don’t concern them.
That was what I was thinking. It’s got to be changed some time.
Or, indeed, those from Northern Ireland. I don’t think Ian Paisley Jnr acquitted himself very well in his intervention – those made by Conservative MPs opposed to the measure were more effective in my opinion, in some cases.
The DUP are hardly shrinking violets are they. I think that were I living in Northern Ireland (like my brother) I would have a real problem voting for them.
My brother is from further right on the tory spectrum and has no problem with them.
There are issues within the Bill which affect Scotland as Willie Bain .MP explained in his speech
All female candidate list here for Labour.
LabourList says it’ll be an open shortlist
So no Round 2 of Sarah Teather vs Dawn Butler?
I don’t think Labour will allow Butler to stand again, which would be pretty much the only way Teather could get re-elected.
On an open shortlist I would imagine it’s pretty much a certainty that a black male would be selected.
This is one of the few seats where I support labour over the LDs. Tim Farron would be another, although obviously being the weakest labour seat in the UK, that wouldnt be a likely situation.
Don’t be certain. Butler is still very much in evidence.