Brecon and Radnorshire
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14182 (36.51%)
Labour: 4096 (10.54%)
Liberal Democrat: 17929 (46.16%)
Plaid Cymru: 989 (2.55%)
UKIP: 876 (2.26%)
Green: 341 (0.88%)
Christian: 222 (0.57%)
Monster Raving Loony: 210 (0.54%)
Majority: 3747 (9.65%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 17182 (44.8%)
Conservative: 13277 (34.6%)
Labour: 5755 (15%)
Plaid Cymru: 1404 (3.7%)
UKIP: 723 (1.9%)
Majority: 3905 (10.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13073 (34.8%)
Labour: 8024 (21.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 13824 (36.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 1301 (3.5%)
UKIP: 452 (1.2%)
Other: 842 (2.2%)
Majority: 751 (2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12419 (29%)
Labour: 11424 (26.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 17516 (40.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 622 (1.5%)
Referendum: 900 (2.1%)
Majority: 5097 (11.9%)
No Boundary Changes: No changes were proposed or suggested.
Profile: The largest seat in Wales geographically, Brecon and Radnorshire covers most of the historic counties of Radnorshire and Brecknockshire. It is an isolated rural seat with difficult communications, made up largely of mountains and forest. It includes the Cambrian mountains, Black Mountains and Brecon Beacons national park. The main industries are tourism and sheep farming.
Towns includes Brecon, Builth Wells, Llanwrtyd Wells, one of the smallest towns in the UK and the site of the annual bog snorkling championships, Ystradgynlais, an industrial town at the far South of the constituency and Hay-on-Wye on the English border, known for its large number of bookshops and literary festival.
Current MP: Roger Williams(Liberal Democrat) born 1948, Crickhowell. Educated at Christ College School, Brecon and Cambridge University. Livestock farmer in Breconshire. A former Labour party member he joined the SDP in 1981. Former Powys County Councillor. First elected as MP for Brecon & Radnorshire in 2001. Environment, Food and Rural Affairs spokesman (more information at They work for you)
Suzy Davies (Conservative) Educated at Exeter University. Solicitor. Contested Brecon and Radnorshire in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections. Contested Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2005.
Chris Lloyd (Labour) Educated at John Beddoes School and Greenwich University. Researcher for Louise Ellman MP. Roger Williams(Liberal Democrat) born 1948, Crickhowell. Educated at Christ College School, Brecon and Cambridge University. Livestock farmer in Breconshire. A former Labour party member he joined the SDP in 1981. Former Powys County Councillor. First elected as MP for Brecon & Radnorshire in 2001. Environment, Food and Rural Affairs spokesman (more information at They work for you)
Janet Davies (Plaid Cymru) Dorienne Robinson (Green) Contested Wales 2004 European election.Clive Easton (UKIP)Jeffrey Green (Christian Party) Lord Offa (Official Monster Raving Loony) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 66880
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 21.2%
Over 60: 26.8%
Born outside UK: 2.9%
White: 98.9%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 74.7%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 19.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.1%
Owner-Occupied: 70.2%
Social Housing: 14.2% (Council: 10.4%, Housing Ass.: 3.9%)
Privately Rented: 10.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.1%
What happened in 1997 was a personal victory for Richard Livsey- Having been out in the cold for five years, he more than convincingly won this back with a solid majority of 5,097. The only reason he lost in 1992 was because he was defending a majority of only 56, and although his vote went up by 1.0%, Evans’ went up by 1.2%- Allowing him to take it with a swing of just 0.2%- One of the narrowest margins of victory for any Conservative at that election. Of course, the Labour squeeze was hinted at that year (They were down 2.9%) but it wasn’t until 2001 that Labour’s vote began to crumble- Labour’s vote has fallen by 16.2% since 1997 here, which just goes to show how effectively Williams must have tactically picked up many of their supporters to vote for him- Interestingly though in 2001 the Labour vote was down by 5.3%, but the Lib Dems fell by 4.0%. So it took for Williams to make a name for himself in the constituency before he was able to make a squeeze on the Labour vote in 2005 and to a leser extent 2010- In fact, most of Labour’s decrease of 6.4% in 2005 must have gone straight to Williams, whose vote went up by 8%.
This seat seems to stretch into the northern bit of the Welsh valleys, hence there must be quite a big natural Labour vote in the seat. The Lib Dems have done very well to squeeze it so hard.
The decline of Labour’s vote here does go a long way in explaining how effectively the Lib Dems have squeezed their vote. They’ve gone from a winning share of 57.69% in 1964 to a paltry 10.54% in 2010.
My prediction for 2015-
Conservative- 14, 169 (36.8%, +0.3%)
Roger Williams (Lib Dem)- 14, 022 (36.4%, -9.8%)
Labour- 7, 586 (19.7%, +9.3%)
Plaid Cymru- 1, 387 (3.6%, +1.1%)
UKIP- 954 (2.4, +0.1%)
Green- 379 (0.9%, +0.0%)
Turnout- 38, 497.
Majority- 147 (0.3%)
Swing- +5.05% From Lib Dem to Con.
I hope you’re right.
I’m less optimistic about this seat than quite a lot of others.
Perhaps if Roger Williams retires then there could be an opportunity.
Labour’s vote must surely have been very depressed here aswell.
It doesn’t really strike me personally as the kind of seat the Lib Dems can hold in 2015- If they were still in a good place going into the next election and if they were actually hoping to increase their majority Williams would have to squeeze the Labour vote even more which would be near-impossible considering they’re now down to 10.5%. The Labour vote at any rate in the current circumstances will probably go back to near its 2001 level (The natural vote for Labour) and that will spell the end for Williams as nearly all of this would come from the Lib Dems.
The first tranche of target seats from the Conservatives in 2013…..include some seats they’ve already called for, which tells its own story I think
Anyway, the ten seats in the latest update (including some they’ve already mentioned) are
Birmingham Northfield
Bolton West
Brecon and Radnorshire
Chippenham
Chorley
Eastbourne
Mid Dorset and North Poole
Middlesborough South and East Cleveland
Morley and Outwood
North Devon
Somerton and Frome
Telford
Torbay
Vale of Clwyd
LDs held this pretty comfortably in 2011, although they have done better recently in the WA than in the GE. Id have thought a LD hold by 2-5%
I too have a sneaking feeling that the LDs will probably hold this