Brecon and Radnorshire
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14182 (36.51%)
Labour: 4096 (10.54%)
Liberal Democrat: 17929 (46.16%)
Plaid Cymru: 989 (2.55%)
UKIP: 876 (2.26%)
Green: 341 (0.88%)
Christian: 222 (0.57%)
Monster Raving Loony: 210 (0.54%)
Majority: 3747 (9.65%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 17182 (44.8%)
Conservative: 13277 (34.6%)
Labour: 5755 (15%)
Plaid Cymru: 1404 (3.7%)
UKIP: 723 (1.9%)
Majority: 3905 (10.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13073 (34.8%)
Labour: 8024 (21.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 13824 (36.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 1301 (3.5%)
UKIP: 452 (1.2%)
Other: 842 (2.2%)
Majority: 751 (2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12419 (29%)
Labour: 11424 (26.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 17516 (40.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 622 (1.5%)
Referendum: 900 (2.1%)
Majority: 5097 (11.9%)
No Boundary Changes: No changes were proposed or suggested.
Profile: The largest seat in Wales geographically, Brecon and Radnorshire covers most of the historic counties of Radnorshire and Brecknockshire. It is an isolated rural seat with difficult communications, made up largely of mountains and forest. It includes the Cambrian mountains, Black Mountains and Brecon Beacons national park. The main industries are tourism and sheep farming.
Towns includes Brecon, Builth Wells, Llanwrtyd Wells, one of the smallest towns in the UK and the site of the annual bog snorkling championships, Ystradgynlais, an industrial town at the far South of the constituency and Hay-on-Wye on the English border, known for its large number of bookshops and literary festival.
Current MP: Roger Williams(Liberal Democrat) born 1948, Crickhowell. Educated at Christ College School, Brecon and Cambridge University. Livestock farmer in Breconshire. A former Labour party member he joined the SDP in 1981. Former Powys County Councillor. First elected as MP for Brecon & Radnorshire in 2001. Environment, Food and Rural Affairs spokesman (more information at They work for you)
Suzy Davies (Conservative) Educated at Exeter University. Solicitor. Contested Brecon and Radnorshire in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections. Contested Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2005.
Chris Lloyd (Labour) Educated at John Beddoes School and Greenwich University. Researcher for Louise Ellman MP. Roger Williams(Liberal Democrat) born 1948, Crickhowell. Educated at Christ College School, Brecon and Cambridge University. Livestock farmer in Breconshire. A former Labour party member he joined the SDP in 1981. Former Powys County Councillor. First elected as MP for Brecon & Radnorshire in 2001. Environment, Food and Rural Affairs spokesman (more information at They work for you)
Janet Davies (Plaid Cymru) Dorienne Robinson (Green) Contested Wales 2004 European election.Clive Easton (UKIP)Jeffrey Green (Christian Party) Lord Offa (Official Monster Raving Loony) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 66880
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 21.2%
Over 60: 26.8%
Born outside UK: 2.9%
White: 98.9%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 74.7%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 19.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.1%
Owner-Occupied: 70.2%
Social Housing: 14.2% (Council: 10.4%, Housing Ass.: 3.9%)
Privately Rented: 10.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.1%
I wonder if the Tories might gain here – there does appear to have been some tactical voting going on amongst Labour voters and I find it hard to believe that these voters will stick with the Libdems
Yes. I considered that before I predicted a narrow Lib Dem hold. But presumably those tactical voters wouldn’t actually think that Labour could win here in their own right? The key could be whether they are prepared to keep voting tactically to keep the Tories out. Which do they find more unpalatable?
With how strongly Lib Dem this seat has become since 1997, I couldn’t see the Lib Dems losing in a single bound. Hope I’m wrong though.
Well, as a Labour voter I honestly don’t care!
To be frank, at least we know where we are with each other, we disagree, but its an honest disagreement.
Put it like this. We asked the Tories to put up a candidate one year in a marginal ward as we feared the LibDems taking it. they were very happy to do so!
I get the impression many Tories despise the LibDems and would be delighted to get back to a 2 party scenario
‘I get the impression many Tories despise the LibDems’
I think that’s true – but unfortunately for Tories of that disposition, the ones that matter (the leadership) don’t
I think we’ve seen enough from Mr Cameron and his allies to suggest that whilst they certainly do adhere to general Tory principles – free market, Euroskepticism, small government – they are essentially pragmatists – more John Major than Margaret Thatcher – and I’d imagine many of them (almost certainly Mr Cameron himself) would have a lot more in common with those Lib Dems on the Clegg wing of the party than many of his own backbenchers
Merseymike, yes I am in full agreement as someone of a Tory disposition! If the Lib Dems threatened to take anything in my area I’d seriously consider voting for whoever could stop them.
Tim, yes I also agree fully with you. The Tory leadership don’t give a damn what Tory members think.
They will do though when the trendy fairweather friends desert them and they are left desperately trying to shore up a base core vote that was there in 1997 but which may well start to melt away now.
‘The Tory leadership don’t give a damn what Tory members think.’
I don’t t think that’s fair Shaun.
You have to remember the Tory grassroots (most of whom are elderly) are a lot more out of synch with the majority of this country than Cameron and his team
Strategically Cameron did get it wrong – at least initially – in focussing on winning back those middle class voters who had desserted the Tories in the 90s with his ‘hug a hoody’ and ‘environmental; themes – rather than belatedly tapping into the WWC vote with a hard dose of straight up Conservatism
Surely the messaage of the last election is that these ‘trendy fairweather friends’ you refer didn’t vote Tory anyway, and yet the Tories almost won without their support
In that sense it was the most ‘American’ election we have ever had with lots of WWC voting Tory because of not what they were, but what they weren’t
Richmond Park, where we also kicked out the Lib Dem council leader in the ward I canvassed, is a pretty middle class seat.
A lot of young members aswell.
I know there are seats where the local Tories don’t have the confidence to get rid of the Lib Dems, but it can be done.
The sneary tone about elderly people aswell.
Some of these people served the country in the war – safeguarding a free society where one of the prices well worth paying is that Lib Dems can gossip, without being sent to a Siberia equivalent.
‘Richmond Park is a pretty middle class seat.’
But voters in Richmond Park are generally exceptionally wealthy
I guess like Hampstead, the affluence of such voters is disguised by a certain radical streak
But billionaire Zack Goldsmith (surely the most unconventional Tory in Parliament) fits the bill perfectly
Had the Tories gone with some working class right wing rabble rouser I don’t think they would have won
Once the boundaries had changed I never expecyted the Lib Dems to win Richmonmd Park in the first place – it’s simply too affluent – and holding the seat for 13 years is no mean feat – especially when you consider thayt therir MPs weren’t exactly the most inspiring politicians in the party
‘The sneary tone about elderly people aswell.’
How the *&^% (I’ll change it to hell) does saying that elderly Tory members are more out-of-synch with the majority of the country than the Cameron team equate to snearing at elderly people
It’s a statement of fact – I’m not saying they are wrong to think like that just that many of their views are considered quite old fashioned by the majority of people in this country
I presume Camneron must have agreed which is why he tried to impose his A-list on local associations as he dodn’t want to run the risk of them jeopradising Tory chances of winning a majority by picking unelectable candidates, as happened in 2001 and, to a lesser extent, 2005
Of course we all know some of those on the A-list
were just as unelectable as those they replaced
I have always felt we owe a great deal of debt to all those who faught in the war and I have always thought that people from that generation are a lot more moral, courteous, respectful and behave with much greater dignity that those in my generation – most of whom I suspect wouldn’t have the bottle to defend their country against the Nazis
But Tim, elderly people are the majority of the country.
The majority of those who bother to vote are aged over 50.
(much to the disadvantage of our future government finances)
There are, however, relatively few people still alive who fought in WW2. They would have to be aged 83-84 minimum even to have been 17 on D-Day.
HH is right. The average age of the population is about 40, the average age of the electorate is about 45, and the average age of those who bother to vote is somewhere between 50 and 55.
‘ the average age of those who bother to vote is somewhere between 50 and 55.’
another indictement on my generation i’d suggest
i would have thought the average age of those who post on this website considerably younger
“Once the boundaries had changed I never expecyted the Lib Dems to win Richmonmd Park in the first place – it’s simply too affluent – and holding the seat for 13 years is no mean feat – especially when you consider thayt therir MPs weren’t exactly the most inspiring politicians in the party”
The boundary changes in 1997 removed East Twickenham (now St Margarets and Twickenham Riverside wards) and brought in 5 wards from Kingston Upon Thames (represented in May 1998 by 7 Tories, 3 Lib Dems and 3 Labour).
Hanley’s 1992 majority increased from 3000 – 4000 to a notional 8000 +.
I assume that the boundary changes did ultimatly make a difference, as the Lib Dems may still have won on the old Richmond & Barns boundaries in 2010.
They would also have won on the old Kingston Upon Thames boundaries, odd because the Conservatives would have won there by around 800 in 1997.
One hour by-election special from ITN for the 1985 Brecon&Radnor by-election:
htttp://bit.ly/qwDSnO
“They would also have won on the old Kingston Upon Thames boundaries, odd because the Conservatives would have won there by around 800 in 1997.”
I presume the post-1997 results would have been affected heavily by the disasterous 2001 result in Kingston and Surbiton.
1997 actually now looks like rather a good result for the Tories there!!!
“I presume the post-1997 results would have been affected heavily by the disasterous 2001 result in Kingston and Surbiton.
1997 actually now looks like rather a good result for the Tories there!!!”
Yes. Though the 1997 result was somewhat of a 3 way split with a very high Labour vote, which has since collapsed to the Lib Dems.
The 2001 result was a disaster, heavily influenced by the appalling candidacy of David Shaw whose cack-handed hard right campaign went down like a lead balloon in liberal south west London.
It is certainly true that the Lib Dems are much stronger in the south of the seat around Surbiton and Chessington than they are in the north around Kingston. Furthermore the Tories remain strong in those Kingston wards now part of Richmond Park.
I don’t know all that much about the Kingston and Surbiton situation, or the 2001 Tory disaster there,
but I’m surprised you are so ready to believe the LDs version of it,
as I heard they ran a particularly nasty campaign there.
But, for whatever reason, it was a disaster for the Tories and for David Shaw.
I did suspect the large Labour vote would shift though, just looking at the numbers,
but the Tory share also dropped 8.2%
Grove ward, which covers Kingston town centre, is also strong for the LDs. I don’t think Ed Davey has too much to worry about with the boundary changes. The demographics aren’t really trending Tory in a significant way and that will also help him.
I think the demographics of that area are trending against the Tories but I’m not quite sure.
It could be varying in different parts of the area.
Not sure Kingston is Lib Dem because it’s such a civilised place,
seems rather chavvy
and a bit of a shit hole.
It is a bit like that in the centre of town and there’s also loads of students about who go to Kingston University. I was one of them for a while before I went to study elsewhere. The old marketplace is nice though and you have the coronation stone used for various Saxon kings which is worth a quick look. You also have some good eateries nearby particularly near the river. Away from the town centre, you have Surbiton which has some quite nice Victorian housing and a good rail link to London Waterloo. I’ve always found the area around the university’s arts campus to be quite pleasant with the Hogsmill river running through it. The really wealthy part of Kingston is in the Richmond Park seat although some of it will be in the proposed version of this seat.
Kingston is a decent part of outer London and its certainly nicer than Croydon or Bromley and its not quite as chavvy as those areas either. I’d still prefer to live in your borough though, Joe. You have a much nicer riverside for a start!
“The 2001 result was a disaster, heavily influenced by the appalling candidacy of David Shaw whose cack-handed hard right campaign went down like a lead balloon in liberal south west London.
It is certainly true that the Lib Dems are much stronger in the south of the seat around Surbiton and Chessington than they are in the north around Kingston. Furthermore the Tories remain strong in those Kingston wards now part of Richmond Park.”
It is true that they are strongest in Chessington and Tolworth and must also do well in General elections in Norbiton – basically those places which used too vtoe Labour many years ago. The Tories still do best in the most socially upmarket areas – Coombe (in Richnmod Park), New Malden, Berrylands. In a sense that contradicts your point that that this is a case of leftie liberal middle class types. Alot of the terrain in the south of the borough is very ordinary indeed (i’ll resist using some of Joe’s language, but I recognise his description) – i many ways it’s similar to areas like Bexleyheath, which also as it happens used to be very strong for the LDs at a local level, but is not well known as being a haunt of middle class intellectual lefties.
It is true that there has been a certain levelling out here in recent years with the LDs gaining in areas like Berrylands adn Surbiton Hill while the Tories have come back strongly in Chessington. That would, if it is continued, support the view that the LD vote is largely from ‘civilised’ middle classes, but as with Sutton, the higher classes in Kingston still tend to be much more Tory.
It was always the same in Richmond ofcourse with the main LD strength being in the more working class areas like Ham and Mortlake. Nothing very suprising about that I suppose, but it does show up this concept of Liberal strength amongst the higher social orders as not a myth, but perhaps ratehr exageratted
“In a sense that contradicts your point that that this is a case of leftie liberal middle class types.”
That wasn’t my point at all. Of course Kingston isn’t full of leftie liberals or it would never have been a safe Tory seat until 1997.
There are plenty of soft Tories such as myself who certainly aren’t lefty liberals yet do not respond well to hard right candidates and campaigns. At least that was true in 2001 at the height of Blairism and Hague’s bandwagon right-wingery, even if it is less true in the changed circumstances of 2011.
David Shaw ran an Andrew Rosindell kind of campaign in a middle of the road, liberalish soft Tory area, and it was a disaster.
I’m a bit surprised that you mention New Malden and Berrylands as socially upmarket areas, Pete. New Malden doesn’t look all that nice at least when passing through on the train. Berrylands looks a bit nicer but still nothing special. Coombe and Surbiton have always seemed the nicest parts of the borough to me.
Pete is right but the General Election would probably have acted as a leveller in 2010,
as in many places.
We had swings against the Tories in some wards in Twickenham where LDs voted in places they don’t normally bother to,
and the reverse in some of their seats.
Ok – to be fair to Kingston – I like the shopping centre and the market area.
To be fair, it looks unpleasant from the road system
but it was a good redesign in 1989 to stop traffic spoiling the centre.
Older areas in Surbiton are quite pleasant.
Shaun-
“This of course coming from the person who voted for Ken Livingstone in 2008 against Boris Johnson.
I wasn’t aware that Boris was fighting such a hard right-wing campaign that would have put you off, but it seems you don’t mind swinging behind the hard left when it suits. Cue more protesting that H.Hemmelig has never voted Labour in a general election.”
It is no wonder the Tories can’t get enough votes to win a majority when so many of their activists – as personified by the likes of you – appear like complete arseholes to people in the wider voting public who are natural Tory voters.
At risk of repeating myself at length, in 2008 I feared that Boris Johnson was a joker and a buffoon who would make an awful mayor. Ken Livingstone did a lot of good things on transport matters, which is why I was prepared to put the negatives to one side and vote for him.
Boris has proved me wrong, whilst Ken has screeched to the left both on economic matters and on his cultivation of minority votes. I will be happy to vote for Boris this time.
HH you must have had your head buried in the sand in 2008 if you think Livingstone then wasn’t still on the hard left and pandering to minority voters, especially dodgy Islamist outfits.
“I’m a bit surprised that you mention New Malden and Berrylands as socially upmarket areas, Pete. New Malden doesn’t look all that nice at least when passing through on the train. Berrylands looks a bit nicer but still nothing special. ”
Its a while since I’ve been down that way, but my impression is that New Malden is not exactly spectacular but pretty leafy and pleasant while Berrylands is quite wealthy. I think the impression formed from passing through areas on the train can be pretty misleading as you tend to not see the best of areas and often you see the worst. I recently took a train that went through Radlett in Herts and mostly all you could see of the town was the rear end of the parade of shops in the high street with the scabby flats such places always have above them. Going on that impression alone I might have thought Radlett a bit of a dump, but it most certainly isn’t. Often also the names of train stations are misleading in that they are not in the area whose name they bear. This is true of Bushey station for example which is actually in Watford and the view passing through there would give a very misleading imprssion of Bushey
I’ve had a look at those places you mentioned via Google Maps. They do look better than I had been led to believe. They are quite middle of the road suburbia with a fair amount of council housing and New Malden has a rather scruffy main thoroughfare but certainly not the worst parts of south London by any means. Neither are nice as Surbiton which has some very pleasant roads near the train station (a nice example of art deco architecture by the way) that look quite wealthy. I have no idea if they are all owned by one family or split into multi-occupancy but they do look pretty affluent. Victoria Avenue in particular is an almost stereotypical example of a leafy middle class suburban road.
Pete did you mean Old Malden rather than New Malden? Parts of Old Malden are quite pleasant and upmarket. If not, perhaps you mean the part of New Malden which is west of the Cambridge Road – that’s owner-occupied & pretty middle-class.
How did the Brecon&Radnor thread turn into a discussion on south west London? Very interesting nonetheless.
Not sure – some statement further up was side-tracked, comparing different LD seats.
Calm down Hemmelig, you mustn’t rise to my bait so easily. I really don’t mind that you’re a Livingstone voter; nor do I mind your contradictions as a self proclaimed Tory ‘moderate’ who turns their nose up at the real right but who has no problem with the hard left.
Its nothing to do with my politics. I believe the Tory party does not hold the monopoly on arses.
Its just a bit of fun.
Goodness – I doubt you’d see Labour Party members having a go at each other as H.Hemmelig & Shaun periodically do. Having said that, I don’t know Shaun whether you’re back in the Conservative Party after your independent (and clearly pretty well-received) candidacy.
I am not a Tory party member, and I don’t think Shaun is either.
It’s nobody’s business but mine who I decide to vote for. It’s sad that this site has degenerated from one discussing electoral outcomes to one where one’s own political beliefs get remorselessly attacked. For that reason this will be my last post on here.
Well I hope you reconsider, since you have great knowledge of a number of seats, and I like the way you express yourself in robust fashion (as I tend to do more outside UK Polling Report). Please stick around, it wouldn’t really be the same site otherwise
No Barnaby, I don’t think either of us are party members at present.
Don’t be silly Hemmelig. Your political beliefs are NOT “remorselessly attacked” on the site at all! At the end of the day, you outed yourself as a supporter of Ken Livingstone in 2008. I understand why you would be embarrassed about that, but really I’ve only given you a bit of modest ribbing about it.
Your contributions are often some of the most knowledgable on the site, and it would be a shame if you let a Tory arse like me discourage you in any way. I would urge you to reconsider.
I concur with Barnaby, HH.
I guess now the General Election is over, there’s less analysis to discuss,
but we have new boundaries, and more local elections next year.
I’ve always found HH’s contributions very useful especially for London constituencies.
yes, and many others aswell,
particularly the East Midlands, Nottingham area.
On Ken Livingstone, I have worked in the transport sector
and have had some time for him – but only on that issue.
I do, however, find it somewhat hard to understand how I could ever have made much allowance for him, even because of that,
because I don’t think he’s mellowed,
but has become an increasingly dangerous
and outdated politician, lost his sense of humour, and with scores to settle setting up a rival government in City Hall, when we can ill afford the cost.
Can I join the consensus that HH not leave.
It is a remarkable coincidence and an irony that H.Hemmelig has announced his departure on the same day that I have decided to make a comeback (I am Votedave). And no, I’m not HH in disguise.
I too became tired of some of the more aggressive, confrontational style adopted by some of the posters on here, but one of you in “some other place” has talked me round into coming back.
Is it still possible to cloak my comments in blue as I am a Conservative? I didn’t see an option when I re-signed up.