Bradford West
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14359 (39.6%)
Conservative: 11779 (32.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6659 (18.4%)
Other: 3472 (9.6%)
Majority: 2580 (7.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11544 (31.7%)
Labour: 14570 (40.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6620 (18.2%)
BNP: 2525 (6.9%)
Green: 1110 (3.1%)
Majority: 3026 (8.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14236 (37.1%)
Labour: 18401 (48%)
Liberal Democrat: 2437 (6.4%)
UKIP: 427 (1.1%)
Green: 2672 (7%)
Other: 197 (0.5%)
Majority: 4165 (10.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15055 (33%)
Labour: 18932 (41.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6737 (14.8%)
Referendum: 1348 (3%)
Other: 3496 (7.7%)
Majority: 3877 (8.5%)
Boundary changes: changes to take account of war boundary changes. The seat loses part of Bowling and Barkerend and a large part of Little Horton to Bradford East, and a small part of Queensbury to Bradford South. It gains part of City and part of Manningham from the old Bradford North, part of Clayton and Fairweather Green from Bradford South and a large chunk of Heaton from shipley.
Profile: One of three seats in the West Yorkshire city of Bradford. Bradford West is a diverse seat, stretched from the city centre itself and the student population of Bradford University, through the deprived areas of Toller and Manningham which have some of the most overcrowded and run-down housing stock of the city and are largely Pakistani and which were the sites of rioting in 1995 and 2001, all the way out to the semi-rural outskirts of Bradford Clayton, Thornton and Allerton.
Bradford West was held by the Labour party throughout the 1980s, but is now a Conservative target. In 1997 when the Labour party swept the rest of the country, Bradford West was one of the few seats where the Conservatives advanced, possibly due to sectarian reason - the sitting Labour MP, Marsha Singh is a Sikh representing a largely Muslim seat, while his 1997 Conservative opponent, Mohammed Riaz, is Muslim.
There is some history of success for minor parties, in 2005 the BNP managed 6.9% of the vote, in 2001 the Greens pushed the Liberal Democrats into fourth place.
Current MP: Marsha Singh (Labour) born 1954, Punjab. Educated at Belle Vue Grammar and Loughborough University. Formerly a development manager with Bradford Health Trust. First elected as MP for Bradford West in 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Zahid Iqbal (Conservative) Educated at Preisthorpe Comprehensive and Leeds Metropolitan Polytechnic. Contested Bradford North in 2001.
Mukhtar Ali (Liberal Democrat) Bradford councillor 1995-2005, orginally for Labour. Contested Bradford West 2005.
Jason Smith (UKIP) Administration supervisor and IT co-ordinator. Contested Bradford South 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97913
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 29.1%
Over 60: 15.5%
Born outside UK: 23.8%
White: 52.6%
Black: 1.5%
Asian: 43%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 39.5%
Hindu: 1.8%
Muslim: 38%
Sikh: 1%
Full time students: 11.1%
Graduates 16-74: 15.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.4%
Owner-Occupied: 65.5%
Social Housing: 18.6% (Council: 11.3%, Housing Ass.: 7.3%)
Privately Rented: 12.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 26.3%
Joseph, what figures did you calculate for the 5 Bradford council seats?
Matt, I used two main sets of figures. Firstly I used the overall figures for the euro results for Bradford as a whole. Secondly, I then added these % figures with the individual ward % figures for the 2006 elections. I then divided the two sets of figures by two. Then I transposed the percentages into actual figures by again using the overall figures for Bradford as a whole. Finally, with these ward figures I then sorted these into constituency. Sounds complicated and purely speculative of course, but its only the way to get some type of constituency breakdown.
And almost completely meaningless, Joe. The 2008 local election results probably bear little or no relation to the Euro performance. After all the results from Manningham, City & Toller at least partly reflect local campaigns (aka Asian political wranglings) and there was little or no active campaigning within the Asian community prior to the Euros. However I can’t prove you wrong - but the turnouts for Clayton & thornton are around 10 points higher than those in the inner city which suggest a good Conservative performance.