Bradford West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12638 (31.15%)
Labour: 18401 (45.35%)
Liberal Democrat: 4732 (11.66%)
BNP: 1370 (3.38%)
UKIP: 812 (2%)
Green: 940 (2.32%)
Others: 1683 (4.15%)
Majority: 5763 (14.2%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14359 (39.6%)
Conservative: 11779 (32.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6659 (18.4%)
Other: 3472 (9.6%)
Majority: 2580 (7.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11544 (31.7%)
Labour: 14570 (40.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6620 (18.2%)
BNP: 2525 (6.9%)
Green: 1110 (3.1%)
Majority: 3026 (8.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14236 (37.1%)
Labour: 18401 (48%)
Liberal Democrat: 2437 (6.4%)
UKIP: 427 (1.1%)
Green: 2672 (7%)
Other: 197 (0.5%)
Majority: 4165 (10.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15055 (33%)
Labour: 18932 (41.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6737 (14.8%)
Referendum: 1348 (3%)
Other: 3496 (7.7%)
Majority: 3877 (8.5%)
Boundary changes: changes to take account of war boundary changes. The seat loses part of Bowling and Barkerend and a large part of Little Horton to Bradford East, and a small part of Queensbury to Bradford South. It gains part of City and part of Manningham from the old Bradford North, part of Clayton and Fairweather Green from Bradford South and a large chunk of Heaton from shipley.
Profile: One of three seats in the West Yorkshire city of Bradford. Bradford West is a diverse seat, stretched from the city centre itself and the student population of Bradford University, through the deprived areas of Toller and Manningham which have some of the most overcrowded and run-down housing stock of the city and are largely Pakistani and which were the sites of rioting in 1995 and 2001, all the way out to the semi-rural outskirts of Bradford Clayton, Thornton and Allerton.
Bradford West was held by the Labour party throughout the 1980s, but is now a Conservative target. In 1997 when the Labour party swept the rest of the country, Bradford West was one of the few seats where the Conservatives advanced, possibly due to sectarian reason – the sitting Labour MP, Marsha Singh is a Sikh representing a largely Muslim seat, while his 1997 Conservative opponent, Mohammed Riaz, is Muslim.
There is some history of success for minor parties, in 2005 the BNP managed 6.9% of the vote, in 2001 the Greens pushed the Liberal Democrats into fourth place.
Current MP: Marsha Singh(Labour) born 1954, Punjab. Educated at Belle Vue Grammar and Loughborough University. Formerly a development manager with Bradford Health Trust. First elected as MP for Bradford West in 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Zahid Iqbal (Conservative) Educated at Preisthorpe Comprehensive and Leeds Metropolitan Polytechnic. Contested Bradford North in 2001.Marsha Singh(Labour) born 1954, Punjab. Educated at Belle Vue Grammar and Loughborough University. Formerly a development manager with Bradford Health Trust. First elected as MP for Bradford West in 1997 (more information at They work for you)
David Hall-Matthews (Liberal Democrat)
David Ford (Green) Bookseller. Bradford councillor 2000-2007.
Jason Smith (UKIP) Administration supervisor and IT co-ordinator. Contested Bradford South 2005.Jenny Sampson (BNP) Arshad Ali (Respect) Neil Craig (Democratic Nationalists)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97913
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 29.1%
Over 60: 15.5%
Born outside UK: 23.8%
White: 52.6%
Black: 1.5%
Asian: 43%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 39.5%
Hindu: 1.8%
Muslim: 38%
Sikh: 1%
Full time students: 11.1%
Graduates 16-74: 15.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.4%
Owner-Occupied: 65.5%
Social Housing: 18.6% (Council: 11.3%, Housing Ass.: 7.3%)
Privately Rented: 12.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 26.3%
Here are the proposed electorates under Richard’s proposals:-
Bradford East:- 85996
Bradford South:- 84618
Keighley:- 74650
Shipley:- 79720
Both Shipley and Keighley would remain Conservative, whilst Labour would hold Bradford South and ‘hold’ Bradford East. Even though his constituency would be abolished, Marsha Singh would go for the ‘new’ Bradford East and win with a majority of 2782 over the LibDems. I think these electorates are more equal than my own projections upthread.
Marsha Singh has made it clear that this is his final term in Parliament. At his victory celebration, he told his constituency activists that he would be campaigning hard with them at the next election – but he would quite definitely not be the candidate.
Whoever does replace Marsha Singh would be safe in the knowledge that Labour would hold this seat (or its successor if abolished) rather easily. Tbph this was never a viable Conservative seat demographically. The Tories should have selected a more local candidate ie a councillor and local issues such as ‘the hole in the ground’ – basically a failed redevelopment of Bradford city centre in building a shopping centre which partly due to the council has being stopped. It is now temporarly a city park until work restarts. Also the Conservative backed Policy Exchange report a couple of years ago slagged of Bradford as basically ‘a poor city’. This resulted in Labour now running the council on a minority basis.
Returning to the subject of boundary changes, here are some more figures. On these boundaries, Queensbury is transfered into Calder Valley whilst Wharfedale is transfered into Pudsey. This means that the four seats have seven wards each thus giving each seat equal number of wards.
Keighley & Ilkley = 78594 (Con Maj = 4897)
Shipley & Bradford North = 77141 (Con Maj = 3481)
Bradford East = 75553 (Lab Maj = 1779)
Bradford South = 73817 (Lab Maj = 7386)
As for Bradford West, it is abolished and split. Heaton, Thornton & Toller are all moved into Shipley & Bradford North (hence the new name). City & Manningham are moved into Bradford East and finally Clayton is moved into Bradford South.
As it happens, the impact on boundary changes in Bradford was discussed in today’s local newspaper with both Marsha Singh and Philip Davies speaking out aginst the changes saying that it would lead to ‘under-representation’ of MP’s especially in large and rural seats.