Bradford West
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14359 (39.6%)
Conservative: 11779 (32.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6659 (18.4%)
Other: 3472 (9.6%)
Majority: 2580 (7.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11544 (31.7%)
Labour: 14570 (40.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6620 (18.2%)
BNP: 2525 (6.9%)
Green: 1110 (3.1%)
Majority: 3026 (8.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14236 (37.1%)
Labour: 18401 (48%)
Liberal Democrat: 2437 (6.4%)
UKIP: 427 (1.1%)
Green: 2672 (7%)
Other: 197 (0.5%)
Majority: 4165 (10.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15055 (33%)
Labour: 18932 (41.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6737 (14.8%)
Referendum: 1348 (3%)
Other: 3496 (7.7%)
Majority: 3877 (8.5%)
Boundary changes: changes to take account of war boundary changes. The seat loses part of Bowling and Barkerend and a large part of Little Horton to Bradford East, and a small part of Queensbury to Bradford South. It gains part of City and part of Manningham from the old Bradford North, part of Clayton and Fairweather Green from Bradford South and a large chunk of Heaton from shipley.
Profile: One of three seats in the West Yorkshire city of Bradford. Bradford West is a diverse seat, stretched from the city centre itself and the student population of Bradford University, through the deprived areas of Toller and Manningham which have some of the most overcrowded and run-down housing stock of the city and are largely Pakistani and which were the sites of rioting in 1995 and 2001, all the way out to the semi-rural outskirts of Bradford Clayton, Thornton and Allerton.
Bradford West was held by the Labour party throughout the 1980s, but is now a Conservative target. In 1997 when the Labour party swept the rest of the country, Bradford West was one of the few seats where the Conservatives advanced, possibly due to sectarian reason - the sitting Labour MP, Marsha Singh is a Sikh representing a largely Muslim seat, while his 1997 Conservative opponent, Mohammed Riaz, is Muslim.
There is some history of success for minor parties, in 2005 the BNP managed 6.9% of the vote, in 2001 the Greens pushed the Liberal Democrats into fourth place.
Current MP: Marsha Singh (Labour) born 1954, Punjab. Educated at Belle Vue Grammar and Loughborough University. Formerly a development manager with Bradford Health Trust. First elected as MP for Bradford West in 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Zahid Iqbal (Conservative) Educated at Preisthorpe Comprehensive and Leeds Metropolitan Polytechnic. Contested Bradford North in 2001.
Mukhtar Ali (Liberal Democrat) Bradford councillor 1995-2005, orginally for Labour. Contested Bradford West 2005.
Jason Smith (UKIP) Administration supervisor and IT co-ordinator. Contested Bradford South 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97913
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 29.1%
Over 60: 15.5%
Born outside UK: 23.8%
White: 52.6%
Black: 1.5%
Asian: 43%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 39.5%
Hindu: 1.8%
Muslim: 38%
Sikh: 1%
Full time students: 11.1%
Graduates 16-74: 15.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.4%
Owner-Occupied: 65.5%
Social Housing: 18.6% (Council: 11.3%, Housing Ass.: 7.3%)
Privately Rented: 12.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 26.3%
117 Responses
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Votedave, It doesn’t work that way - if anything an all Asian cast would favour the Conservatives rather than Labour. The assumption (and local elections do point this way) is that the Asian community trends to labour. However, unlike the situation in the 1970s and 1980s, only a minority of that Asian community can now be seen as Labour voters - I haven’t done any detailed analysis but certainly since the late 1990s and definitely since 2004 a majority of the Asian communtiy have voted for Parties other than labour. And have done so consistently.
The question is whether that non-Labour vote is divided or whether it trends to the Conservatives - that will be - along with the rascist vote - the primary determinant of the outcome in this Constituency.
August 26th, 2008 at 7:22 pmBradford South
I take your point ASC - I was thinking more of the possible effect an all-white cast. As recently as 1992 the candidates’ very British-sounding names were Madden, Ashworth, Griffiths, Braham and Pidcock (Pidcock was an Islamic Party candidate who polled 1%).
August 26th, 2008 at 7:42 pmI suppose those days are probably gone forever now, though.
My prediction -
Conservative: 14000
August 26th, 2008 at 9:33 pmLabour: 13000
Liberal Democrat: 6000
Other: 3500
Majority: 1000
Why did the Green vote plummet last time?
August 27th, 2008 at 12:00 pmRuislip Northwood
The Green vote in 2001 was artifically inflated because their candidate was the only one with an English name. There was no BNP candidate then and even the UKIP candidate was called Hussain, so pereversely they became beneficiaries of what might be described as a ‘racist’ vote.
August 27th, 2008 at 12:04 pmIslwyn
“The Green vote in 2001 was artifically inflated because their candidate was the only one with an English name”
Interesting hypothesis Pete, but how can you state it as a fact? Is it anecdote or any real causual evidence?
August 27th, 2008 at 2:01 pmRuislip Northwood
The same Green candidate had stood in 1997 and got 861 votes (1.9%) finishing in 6th place behind Socialist Labour and Referendum party candidates. The LD candidate on that occassion (who was white) achieved a sizeable increase in their vote, against the national trend. It was actually the increase in the LD share and others at Labour’s expense which caused the famous swing to the Conservatives, for the Conservative share was actually down slightly.
1997 Wright LD 6737 (14.8%)
2001 Khan LD 2437 (6.4%)
1997 Robinson Grn 861 (1.9%)
2001 Robinson Grn 2672 (7.0%)
Can I state it as a fact? Without interviewing a large number of people who voted Green in Bradford West in 2001 obviously not. But the figures present a pretty compelling explanation IMO. Take a look at the results in the last three elections in this constituency and I think you will draw similar conclusions.
August 27th, 2008 at 3:07 pmIslwyn
It does look compelling. UKIP bloke might get up tp 20% here.
August 27th, 2008 at 3:30 pmI know people who have voted Green in Sheffield’s Central ward on the sole basis that the Green candidate was white and that Labour and the LibDems had Asian candidates.
Aside from the blatant racists some people fear that if elected an ethnic minority candidate would concentrate on helping their ‘own’ community and not on the whole population.
Curiously the year I was told this I voted (in a totally different ward) for a Muslim Asian woman. Which rather allowed me to feel a certain PC self-righteousness
August 27th, 2008 at 6:24 pmBradford’s original Green councillor stormed out of the Council chamber when I suggest that the brilliant green result in 2001 was down to this rascist vote (he did slightly misunderstand me and felt I was suggesting he or his party were rascist - plainly nonsense). I recall several denisons of the pub I frequented back saying this was exactly what they had done.
August 27th, 2008 at 8:21 pmRuislip Northwood
“Can I state it as a fact? Without interviewing a large number of people who voted Green in Bradford West in 2001 obviously not”
Isn’t this the beauty of a site like this? ASC has done it for me
August 27th, 2008 at 8:50 pmBournemouth West
I would be very surprised if the BNP did not stand here - they picked up nearly 7% at the last election, especiallybearing in mind all 3 main parties have selected Asian candidates. I would expect the BNP to stand in every seat in West Yorkshire, with the possible exceptions of Leeds North East and Leeds North West.
August 27th, 2008 at 9:20 pmPages: « 1 … 4 5 6 7 [8] Show All