Bradford South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11060 (29.11%)
Labour: 15682 (41.27%)
Liberal Democrat: 6948 (18.29%)
BNP: 2651 (6.98%)
UKIP: 1339 (3.52%)
Others: 315 (0.83%)
Majority: 4622 (12.16%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17308 (48.9%)
Conservative: 8546 (24.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5158 (14.6%)
Other: 4408 (12.4%)
Majority: 8762 (24.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8787 (24%)
Labour: 17954 (49%)
Liberal Democrat: 5334 (14.6%)
BNP: 2862 (7.8%)
Green: 695 (1.9%)
UKIP: 552 (1.5%)
Other: 421 (1.2%)
Majority: 9167 (25%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9941 (28.3%)
Labour: 19603 (55.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3717 (10.6%)
UKIP: 783 (2.2%)
Other: 1093 (3.1%)
Majority: 9662 (27.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12622 (28%)
Labour: 25558 (56.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5093 (11.3%)
Referendum: 1785 (4%)
Majority: 12936 (28.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: This is mostly the southern fringe of Bradford, with the city centre proper divided between Bradford East and Bradford West. Lidget Green and Great Horton are more inner city Bradford, with terraced houses and a large Asian population and Wibsey but most of the rest of the seat is large deprived council estates to the south of the city like Buttershaw and Holme Wood. To the east the seat stretches out to cover the small rural village of Tong, while at the western end it encompasses the large village of Queensbury, a former mill village that is now a pocket of BNP strength.
This has been a Labour seat since before the Second World War, though it was a marginal at the height of Tory support in the 1980s. There are some pockets of Tory support in places like Tong or some of the newer housing developments, but overall it is safely Labour.
Current MP: Gerry Sutcliffe(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Matt Palmer (Conservative) Works for the Skipton building society. Bradford councillor.Gerry Sutcliffe(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Alun Griffiths (Liberal Democrat) Jamie Illingworth (UKIP) Sharon Sutton (BNP) James Lewthwaite (Democratic Nationalists)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 92115
Male: 47.6%
Female: 52.4%
Under 18: 26%
Over 60: 18.5%
Born outside UK: 6.4%
White: 89.3%
Black: 0.9%
Asian: 7.8%
Mixed: 1.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 69.1%
Hindu: 1.5%
Muslim: 5.4%
Sikh: 0.7%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 11.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.2%
Owner-Occupied: 69.2%
Social Housing: 19.7% (Council: 13.9%, Housing Ass.: 5.7%)
Privately Rented: 7.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 21.8%
I’d have to check. I was fairly sure all tree Bradford seats were completely unchanged in 1983. IIRC my 1983 Times Guide gave the 1979 result for these seats, which it only did for unchanged seats. The boundaries had been changed quite a bit in 1974 and the Bradford South which existed before then did include Shelf and also excluded Tong so definitely would have gone Conservative in the 80s
There were some boundary changes in the 3 Bradford seats (although greater than 5% according to The Times Guide). Actual results, 1979:
Bradford N: Lab – 7,521
Bradford S: Lab – 4,318
Bradford W: Lab – 7,755
Notional results, 1979:
Bradford N: Lab – 7,597
Bradford S: Lab – 4,962
Bradford W: Lab – 7,887
Indeed. Then that would certainly suggest that on the old boundaries this seat would have been Conservative in 1983 and 1987. Was it the removal of Shelf which occurred in 1983?
Unfortunately Robert Waller’s 1983 Almanac doesn’t mention anything about the boundary changes (which he does for a lot of other constituencies). He does note the inclusion within the Bradford South constituency of Buttershaw, Tong, Queensbury, Great Horton, Odsal, Wibsey and Wyke. Shelf isn’t mentioned.
I have the ITN/BBC guide to the new constituencies at home so I’ll check that later. It will show if any voters were moved from Bradford South to Halifax
The 1979 Almanac does but not on the Bradford South page.
The Bradford West page says it has gained Clayton from South while the Halifax page says it has gained Shelf from Bradford South.
The notional Labour majority in Halifax is given as only 900.
Shelf was apparantly in the same urban district as Queensbury so it would have been more likely for it to have been split after the local government reorganisation.
Yes you’re quite correct Richard. I should have checked my facts before replying. 3,000 voters were moved from Bradford South to Halifax.
I’ve never seen a copy of the 1979 Almanac which I think was the first edition? I originally had a copy which was published during the 1983 parliament but it long since disintegrated. I have owned every subsequent edition but one or two have gone the same way. Currently the oldest edition I have is the 4th which was publsihed in 1991 and has far less descrpition of the boundary changes than the earlier edition(s) because onbviously the results related to 1987 ratehr than 1983 when the boundaries were no longer new. I really ought to try and get a copy of the 1st edition
Was there a 1979 Almanac? I assumed the first edition was one that come out just before the 1983 election.
I don’t know what years they were published. I took Richard to mean that and that he referred to it as the ’1979 Almanac’ because it will have had the 1979 results/notionals in it. I think of my 4th edition as the 1987 Almanac though it was published in 1991. It does say First edition published 1983, 2nd 1985 and 3rd 1987. So it looks like 2 editions may have been published between the 1983 and 1987 elections which is a bit strange. Not sure if the one I had was the 2nd or 3rd, but they must not have been all that different
I have in front of me the second edition (published 1983, after the election that year) and the third edition (published 1987, before the election that year).
The reason I tend to think the first edition was published just before the 1983 edition is because a lot of the entries in the second edition are written as if meant for publication just before the 1983 election but then a final paragraph is often inserted commenting on the actual 1983 result.
So is there actually very much difference between the 2nd and 3rd editions?
Yes that was my mistake in assuming the third edition was published after the 1987 election rather than before it. Some of the entries are updated with new information such as data from the 1986 London elections but mostly it is the same as the second edition. The main difference is that the third edition is larger/heavier and printed on higher quality paper. The second edition still had a bit of an amateurish quality about it. Obviously the book became a big success sometime in the mid-80s.
When I say amateurish I’m of course referring to the physical quality of the book rather than the writing itself.
It must be the third edition I had originally, probably bought new in 1987. I seem to recall some discussion about the 1986 results , for example the fact that Labour won a majority of council seats in Finchley that year. I really ought to get on Amazon etc see if I can get a first edition. It will be interesting to see how seats like West Herts were treated, being a notional Labour seat in 1979 and it not being obvious how badly Labour were about to do there
Aggregate votes here in 2012;
Lab 9925 48.9%
C 2735 13.5%
Respect 2219 10.9%
UKIP 2055 10.1%
LD 1764 8.7%
BNP 549 2.7%
The Tories did not stand in Great Horton or Tong.
The BNP have really gone for a burton here – they only stood in Queensbury and came fourth. Most of their support seems to have gone over to UKIP and the Democratic Nationalists.
Interesting result in Queensbury – a three way marginal with Tories topping the poll, Labour and UKIP not far behind.
Unsurprisingly, more than two thirds of Respect’s vote came from Great Horton.
Census results – white British, 2001 / 2011:
{I think the old Odsal ward mostly became the new Royds ward although I’m not certain}:
Great Horton: 64.3% / 39.6%
Queensbury: 93.4% / 89.2%
Royds: no data / 85.8%
Odsal: 76.0% / no data
Tong: 91.3% / 79.4%
Wibsey: 92.4% / 74.4%
Wyke: 94.7% / 89.6%
TOTAL, 2011: 75.9%
White overall:
2001: 89.3%
2011: 78.9%
Still strikingly different from West next door, except for Great Horton. This seat has been compared to Leicester West in that it’s the remaining WWC seat in a city noted for its Indian subcontinental population – perhaps it’s more white-dominated than Leicester West now. Certainly the 2 seats’ psephology has tended to be pretty similar.