Bracknell
2010 Results:
Conservative: 27327 (52.41%)
Labour: 8755 (16.79%)
Liberal Democrat: 11623 (22.29%)
BNP: 1253 (2.4%)
UKIP: 2297 (4.41%)
Green: 825 (1.58%)
Others: 60 (0.12%)
Majority: 15704 (30.12%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 22712 (49.2%)
Labour: 12656 (27.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 8711 (18.9%)
Other: 2039 (4.4%)
Majority: 10056 (21.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 25412 (49.7%)
Labour: 13376 (26.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 10128 (19.8%)
UKIP: 1818 (3.6%)
Other: 407 (0.8%)
Majority: 12036 (23.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22962 (46.6%)
Labour: 16249 (33%)
Liberal Democrat: 8424 (17.1%)
UKIP: 1266 (2.6%)
Other: 324 (0.7%)
Majority: 6713 (13.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 27983 (47.4%)
Labour: 17596 (29.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9122 (15.4%)
Referendum: 1636 (2.8%)
Other: 2754 (4.7%)
Majority: 10387 (17.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Philip Lee (Conservative) Born 1970, Buckinghamshire. Educated at Sir William Borlase`s Grammar and Kings College Loncon. GP. Contested Blaenau Gwent 2005.
Philip Lee (Conservative) Born 1970, Buckinghamshire. Educated at Sir William Borlase`s Grammar and Kings College Loncon. GP. Contested Blaenau Gwent 2005.
John Piasecki (Labour) Bracknell Forest councillor
Ray Earwicker (Liberal Democrat) born 1945. Educated at Oak Park County Secondary Modern and University of London. Retired civil servant. Bracknell Forest councillor until 2007. Contested Bracknell 2001. 
David Young (Green) Retired company secretary.
Murray Barter (UKIP) 
Mark Burke (BNP) Contested South East in 2009 European election.Dan Haycocks (Scrap Members Allowances)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 103198
Male: 50.3%
Female: 49.7%
Under 18: 24.9%
Over 60: 15.1%
Born outside UK: 8.4%
White: 95.5%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 1.8%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 71.5%
Hindu: 0.9%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 22.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 20.8%
Owner-Occupied: 72.9%
Social Housing: 18.4% (Council: 15%, Housing Ass.: 3.4%)
Privately Rented: 5.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 2.1%
Apparantly Rory Stewart was the runner up and Iain Dale was third.
Dr Philip Lee had the distinction of polling the lowest number of votes for any Conservative candidate in 2005 (Blaenau Gwent), outside of Northern Ireland
I am supremely thankful that Iain Dale did not win – he would lose us the seat.
Decent blogger, but a useless candidate.
Is that based solely on his performance in North Norfolk?
I didn’t realise Philip Lee was only 39 – he looks about 10 years older from his pictures!
Every time Iain Dale tries for a seat, I am amazed how many negative comments are made against him by his own side.
Andrew Boff once said to me that associations are very reluctant to choose a candidate whose homosexuality is high-profile in the media. Openly gay is OK as long as it isn’t being rammed down their throats.
Andrew tried for several winnable seats around London, including Richmond Park, in addition to his various attempts to get the mayoral candidacy.
I think there is a homophobic undertone to some of those comments, although his performance in North Norfolk cannot have helped
What constituency were Great Hollands, and Harmanswater in 1885-1950?
lol very funny Joe
Time for the pub.
“Dr Philip Lee had the distinction of polling the lowest number of votes for any Conservative candidate in 2005 (Blaenau Gwent), outside of Northern Ireland”
Nope, lowest percentage share, but not lowest number of votes – I believe that was Andy Maciver in Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)
Dear Sir, I am writing to say that I am a Full Time Carer for my long time partner whom has MS, I care for her 7 days a week all year round. Before I was 65 y.o.a. I received a weekly carers allowance of £42.54, when I reached 65 and claimed my state pension it was stopped, I still care ro my partner that has not stopped and I feel bitter that the standard of care I give her is the same but I now receive nothing for this hard work. I am not getting any younger and my partner is getting progresively worse. I am a member of Carers Society and uderstand they are fighting in my( and others like me) corner. We are living on the bread line, can not have a holiday and to be paid a carers allowance would meen so much and make a whole lot of difference to our lives. Please can’t something be done about this?????
John Howard, Crown Wood, Bracknell
Well I’m not sure this is in the remit of the seat and the electoral aspects of it, but I think you have a valid point.
I hope you get the help needed.
I see there was a Town Council by-election last night in Old Bracknell, won by Labour by 10 votes.
Although I don’t set much store by town or parish council election results, perhaps someone could tell me if it was a gain from the Tories or a hold.
I believe it was a gain but in a ward where the Tory had been elected in third place behind two Labour councillors so not sure if it actually represents a swing to Labour or the other way compared with 2007 (which wasn’t a vintage year anyway)
thanks Pete.
I assume the town council ward is the same as the borough ward where Labour won both seats in the district elections in 2007 (represnting 2 out of 3 of their total councillors elected in the whole borough that year). Their majority there was around 70 or 5% so this would represent a swing against Labour.
It is slightly counter-intuitive that the best Labour ward here should be Old Bracknell. I don’t know it but in general the old town parts of new towns tend to be the best areas for the Tories because they contain often quite attractive areas that were present before the construction of New Town housing. This is certainly the case in Old Harlow, Old Hatfield and Old Stevenage (though Old Hemel which is similarly attractive also finds itself in one of only two wards to elect a Labour councillor in 2007)
Cons Hold= 12,000 maj
I don’t think there is any doubt that Dr Philip Lee will get over 50% of the vote on the 6th May.
The BNP candidate will lose his deposit.
I should have added that I think the Lib Dem candidate will come second.
C hold maj 16000
Con Hold
Maj 14800
Con maj 14,000
CON HOLD
Barnaby, what are you up to with all these predictions!
Which seats was Bracknell itself in until 1983? Since then I know it was in Berkshire East and then of course in this seat
Wokingham (until 1983).
You might find some of the early posts on this thread of interest aswell Harry.
Bracknell voted evenly Conservative and Labour in 1979, as far as we can tell from the local elections on the same day.
But it was heavily outvoted in the over-sized Wokingham seat.
Labour still polled well in the 1981 County Council elections, winning all the Bracknell divisions, but
won no seats in 1983 and 1987 (when the Tories won every ward).
Labour won a few seats in 1991, as did the LDs, but then astonishingly took control in 1995, although that didn’t last even in 1997.
Bracknell Forest
May 2011
Con Hold (most likely)
Oh yes I’m sure you’re right there Joe. The authority includes the Tory bastion of Axcot which is in Windsor for Parliamentary purposes, and outside of Bracknell itself the Tories are very strong. Even in Bracknell itself Labour hardly ever accumulates a lead of any size.
‘[Bracknell itself was in] Wokingham (until 1983)’
I presume this means the present seat from its creation in 1950, not the ‘old’ seat of the same name which was around until 1918
Bracknell Forset May 2011
Con 33 -6
Lab 9 +6
“The authority includes the Tory bastion of Axcot which is in Windsor for Parliamentary purposes”
Ascot is in a strange situation of actually being divided between Bracknell Forest and Windsor & Maidenhead boroughs. Most of the town (and the racecourse) is actually in the latter, contained in the Ascot & Cheapside and Sunninghill & South Ascot wards. The Ascot ward which is in Bracknell Forest contains only North Ascot and is part of Winfkield parish. In 1995 when Labour won control of Bracknell Forest council they did actually win one of the three seats in Ascot ward – the others were won by a Conservative and a Lib Dem
The ward did at that time however include areas which are now in other wards such as Crown Wood, which is where the Labour vote would have come from in 1995
Old Bracknell includes a few old houses, but mainly old overspill 1960′s council estates. It is not a picturesque part of town. The later developments in Bracknell Forest are substantially private sector – Warfield, Sandhurst, Martin’s Heron, and houses sell for high prices.
The area changed from little market town, to London overspill estate to dormatory suburban developments.
There are four wards (10 councillors) to the north and east of the town in Windsor constituency and all are now massively Conservative.
Labour may gain a few seats in the centre of Bracknell, but the borough’s population growth and consequent rewarding mean that it is just not in contention in more than half the wards. The Lib Dems have only won a single seat in the last decade, and are not close anywhere else.
This will be a Conservative hold – and the interest will be to see if Labour shows any sign of life.
I know a couple of people in the Labour camp in Bracknell and they are talking up their chances of making very significant gains.
Time will tell
I’d expect Labour to regain the three Great Hollands seats they lost in 2007 and maybe the two Wildrings & Central seats (though they were Tory in 2003, but there’s an appreciable Lib Dem vote). Beyond those 5 there’s no obvious Labour targets, though they may be hopeful of picking up a seat in Priestwood if things go really well for them.
“they are talking up their chances of making very significant gains”
Whatever gains they will make will be hailed as ‘very significant’ gains I suspect.
If Labour want to play that game then they need nothing less than to regain majority control of Bracknell Forest council or at least come close to doing it. After all, thats what they did the last time they were really about to get into government (the BBC used to love playing that sort of game with the Tories in opposition didn’t they. They used to make spurious little analagies like that all the time. What fun it is, I can see why they enjoyed it so much).
But of course they won’t get anywhere near to that. As Paul has said, Labour will win the wards he has mentioned returning them to a pre 2007 level of representation and thats it. Thats not ‘significant’. Thats survival!
I doubt they’ll play that game (probably arguing that they don’t need to win that many councils/seats to see a majority Labour government next time). However, the collapse of Labour’s council platform (and therefore a reduction in its activist base) could lead to it being harder than expected for them to win certain seats next time around
After all that the result was Con 40 (+1) Lab 2 (-1)
What can I say? I was wrong… ah well
Almost a clean sweep – like (almost) in Windsor and Maidenhead, Surrey Heath, and Waverley.
I’m somewhat surprised – I’d have expected Labour to gain a few seats.
Although the Tories did very well here in May,
the Labour vote is not all that far behind in several wards.
It is still just possible you could get a dramatic domino effect should there be another really bad Tory year like 1995 (which I hope there isn’t).
The Lib Dems seem to have almost entirely given up.
Central Sandhurst was a comfortable Tory win, over Labour.