Bournemouth West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18808 (45.15%)
Labour: 6171 (14.81%)
Liberal Democrat: 13225 (31.75%)
UKIP: 2999 (7.2%)
Independent: 456 (1.09%)
Majority: 5583 (13.4%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 13961 (39.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 11353 (31.9%)
Labour: 8245 (23.2%)
Other: 2028 (5.7%)
Majority: 2608 (7.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14057 (41.4%)
Labour: 7824 (23.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 10026 (29.6%)
UKIP: 2017 (5.9%)
Majority: 4031 (11.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14417 (42.8%)
Labour: 9699 (28.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 8468 (25.2%)
UKIP: 1064 (3.2%)
Majority: 4718 (14%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17115 (41.7%)
Labour: 10093 (24.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 11405 (27.8%)
Referendum: 1910 (4.7%)
Other: 549 (1.3%)
Majority: 5710 (13.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Conor Burns (Conservative) Educated at Southampton University. Former Southampton councillor. Contested Eastleigh 2001, 2005.
Conor Burns (Conservative) Educated at Southampton University. Former Southampton councillor. Contested Eastleigh 2001, 2005.
Sharon Carr-Brown (Labour) 
Alasdair Murray (Liberal Democrat) Educated at King Edward VI School Southampton and Oxford University. Director of CentreForum.
Philip Glover (UKIP) 
Harvey Taylor (Independent) Born 1956, Wimborne. Educated at Trent Polytechnic. Leadership trainer and hypnotherapist.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89521
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 18.9%
Over 60: 25.8%
Born outside UK: 7.4%
White: 97%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.7%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 70.3%
Jewish: 0.9%
Muslim: 0.9%
Full time students: 8.5%
Graduates 16-74: 15.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.9%
Owner-Occupied: 68.5%
Social Housing: 13.7% (Council: 9.7%, Housing Ass.: 4.1%)
Privately Rented: 14.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.3%
I see your point; but here I guess they’re all helping in Mid-Dorset and North Poole. They may still feel under threat ?. I live in Bedford myself.
Today’s local paper
http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/elections/local_news/8119411.It___s_just_a_jump_to_the_left_for_Tory_councillor/
So, a Tory councillor defects to the Lib Dems.
Add to that a good local campaign (despite what has been said here) and good national opinion poll ratings… and drastic shortening of the odds from the bookies since the campaign began…
I predict a Lib Dem gain with a 1000 majority.
Seagull – the councillor in question represents a ward in Bournemouth East, not even in this seat. As a local resident, tell me why you think this has been a “good local campaign”, as apart from 1 leaflet, I have seen absolutely nothing (although the same can be said of the other parties standing here too!)
LD’s might be working this sea hard but I can’t quite seem hem making it. my model predict
Con maj 2000
Will be interesting to see this result. My wife’s home town and I lived there for some time. Normally a safe Conservative hold and I would have said a 5000 majority. But 2 things are likely to make it tighter – the previous MP who is generally referred to as Butterfool, and the significant number of Labour votes left to squeeze. Still a Conservative hold but by 2000 max.
CON HOLD
There is a sizeable Labour vote to both crumble and squeeze here. Therefore I believe a LD gain here
C hold by 5,583.
I am relieved about that – with the above comments I was expecting much worse. In this case I don’t think incumbency would have been an asset, and Sir John Butterfill was right to retire.
I am (pleasantly) surprised how comfortable Conor Burns won in the end – the Lib Dems must be gutted at seeing their share of the vote actually fall slightly despite an apparantly unpopular Conservative council plus John Butterfill’s controversies
There was a piece on the news during the election that indicated the sudden increase in LD support after the 1st debate was actually too much for them to carry through on the ground with their targets, and they weren’t really expecting this one.
Was all of Bournemouth in the Christchurch seat from 1832 to 1918, and has Central ward been in this seat since 1983?
I believe it was although Kinson was historically in Dorset (ie when most of Bournemouth was in Hampshire) and would not have been included in a Bournemouth seat until I think 1950.
The Central ward was in Bournemouth East from 1983-1997 and has been in this seat since then
I was reading on the Torbay thread how it is declining and causing the Tories to struggle there.
Bournemouth seems to have bucked the trend of the Tories having difficulties in declining seaside resorts. Of course it has a more mixed economy although the majorities are much lower than they used to be.
‘There was a piece on the news during the election that indicated the sudden increase in LD support after the 1st debate was actually too much for them to carry through on the ground with their targets, and they weren’t really expecting this one.’
I remember seeing that
The Lib Dem candidate seemed oblivious to fact fhat this seat was winnible – strange given the slenderness of the Tory majority following the boundary changes
A poor Lib Dem result – but consistent with other similar Tory-held LD/Con marginals in the South West
Had John Butterfill stood, I think they could have won in light of his dispicible behaviour (along with Hewiitt, Hoon and the biggest disgrace of all, Byers) in the ‘cash for questions’ documentary on Channel 4
I hope Mr Cameron sticks with his decision not to give Butterfill a seat in the House of Lords
i have a stag do in Bournemouth on the bank holiday weekend so it will b e intrwssting to see whether it has declined as much as other seaside towns