Boston and Skegness
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21325 (49.45%)
Labour: 8899 (20.64%)
Liberal Democrat: 6371 (14.77%)
BNP: 2278 (5.28%)
UKIP: 4081 (9.46%)
Independent: 171 (0.4%)
Majority: 12426 (28.81%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 20078 (46.4%)
Labour: 13617 (31.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3990 (9.2%)
Other: 5568 (12.9%)
Majority: 6461 (14.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 19329 (46.2%)
Labour: 13422 (32.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3649 (8.7%)
BNP: 1025 (2.4%)
Green: 420 (1%)
UKIP: 4024 (9.6%)
Majority: 5907 (14.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17298 (42.9%)
Labour: 16783 (41.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4994 (12.4%)
UKIP: 717 (1.8%)
Green: 521 (1.3%)
Majority: 515 (1.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19750 (42.4%)
Labour: 19103 (41%)
Liberal Democrat: 7721 (16.6%)
Majority: 647 (1.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: A largely rural seat in the South Lincolnshire fens. Boston was a Hanseatic port in the Middle Ages and a hotbed of religious dissent, the pilgrim fathers originally attempted to depart from Boston, and Boston Massachusetts is named for the town. The modernised port today remains a major local employer and Boston is the major population centre in the seat.
Elsewhere agriculture and tourism dominate. Skegness was a small fishing village and port until the 19th century, but boomed as a Victorian holiday resort and remains a popular seaside town and, like most coastal resorts, retirement location – around 30% of the electorate in the seat are retired. Ingoldmells to the north of Skegness is the site of the first Butlins holiday camp and the Fantasy Island amusement park. Other towns and villages in the constituency include Burgh le Marsh and Wainfleet All Saints, site of Batemans Brewery.
In 1997 and 2001 the seat was a very close Conservative/Labour marginal, but in 2005 the Conservatives managed to turn it into a relatively safe seat. UKIP received 9.6% of the vote here in 2005, their strongest performance in the country.
Current MP: Mark Simmonds(Conservative) born 1964, Worksop. Educated at Worksop College and Trent University. Former surveyor and estate agent. Currently shadow minister for International Development. Contested Ashfield in 1997. First elected as MP for Boston and Skegness in 2001. (more information at They work for you)
Mark Simmonds(Conservative) born 1964, Worksop. Educated at Worksop College and Trent University. Former surveyor and estate agent. Currently shadow minister for International Development. Contested Ashfield in 1997. First elected as MP for Boston and Skegness in 2001. (more information at They work for you)Paul Kenny (Labour) Former Boston councillor. Contested Boston and Skegness 2005.Philip Smith (Liberal Democrat) Mansfield councillor 1999-2007. Contested Mansfield 1997, Doncaster South 2001Christopher Pain (UKIP) Contested Louth & Horncastle 2005.David Owens (BNP)Peter Wilson (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91856
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 20.5%
Over 60: 26.8%
Born outside UK: 2.8%
White: 98.6%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 80%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 9.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 41.5%
Owner-Occupied: 69.6%
Social Housing: 17.3% (Council: 8%, Housing Ass.: 9.3%)
Privately Rented: 9.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.7%
The Labour vote must be around 10% points below 1992, although
I think it did increase quite a bit above average then.
The swings to Conservatives here have been magnified by Labour voters wandering off all over the place.
It’s hard to see this being close again in the medium term.
How curious, I was looking at this constituency just a moment ago.
I suspect that Labour could still fall much further in constituencies like this one.
In opposition they lose the power of patronage and the fear factor that kept much of their remaining vote together.
The Milibands are totally the wrong leaders for a place like this too though Balls would be better.
When will the political parties finally understand that the public has had enough of being led by Blairlike clones? As if Cameron and Clegg weren’t enough, now we’ll get one of the Miliband’s to complete the trilogy.
I couldn’t believe it when that Newsnight focus group the other week reported such enthusiasm for D.Miliband. Shows the fallacy of trusting such a forum. To me both Milibands are nerds, young versions of John Major without any of his good points (his likeability and working class background). Balls comes across as a freak and a nasty piece of work. Burnham has a better back story and the right accent but is too lightweight and comes across as a bit of a tit (and white van man will never vote for a pretty boy who looks like he wears eyeliner).
So Labour are pretty stuck. Certainly one of the Milibands as leader will leave them in opposition for a long time, and as Richard says will push them even further out of favour with their traditional voters.
Might be a little optimistic. A lot depends on how the Government is seen in a few years’ time.
True but it often takes many years for the mistakes of a government to take effect.
And at the next election it will be much harder for Labour to claim that the Conservatives are going to cut people’s jobs or services.
And the Conservatives will be claiming that a Labour government would increase immigration and taxation.
So the cycle continues.
In a couple of years’ time we might get a fairly good idea of whether Labour is heading back for government or if there will be a further swing to the Conservatives. It’s too early to say at this stage, though it’s worth remembering Labour regained its poll lead very quickly after the 1979 election but still ended up losing four years later. 1983 was the previous time any government increased their majority. Most polls were predicting there would be an overall swing to Labour in 2001 but it didn’t happen.
Labour will be hopeful that their share of the vote won’t fall even lower, but then there’s a lot of scope for the Conservatives to increase their vote share also.
Labour perhaps need to be aiming for a lead of 13% or more in the local elections of 2011/2012 to be contemplating pulling ahead in the popular vote in 2015.
……or whenever the next election is. One of the imponderables at the moment is how long this Parliament will last.
I think some of these points about who is leader have some validity but are taken too far.
I’m not sure there is all that much evidence that more traditional working class places in smaller towns react badly to Metropolitan middle class leaders.
If so, why did Labour nearly win here in 1997 and 2001?
I agree with a lot of Richard’s (and HH’s) views about a general distaste for policy wonkers, and not enough people who’ve done proper jobs, but to extrapolate it too far into how particular areas vote doesn’t really stand up, even though he and probably I would like to believe it.
Not that I’m saying any of the above mentioned people have not done proper jobs.
” In a couple of years’ time we might get a fairly good idea of whether Labour is heading back for government or if there will be a further swing to the Conservatives. It’s too early to say at this stage, though it’s worth remembering Labour regained its poll lead very quickly after the 1979 ”
Labour regained a lead in June 1979.
The honeymoon was 6 weeks.
HH
“I couldn’t believe it when that Newsnight focus group the other week reported such enthusiasm for D.Miliband. Shows the fallacy of trusting such a forum.”
Wasn’t it a Newsnight focus group which played a large part in convincing the Conservatives that Cameron would be able to get votes from urban trendies and public sector workers?