Bolton West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18235 (38.33%)
Labour: 18327 (38.52%)
Liberal Democrat: 8177 (17.19%)
UKIP: 1901 (4%)
Green: 545 (1.15%)
Independent: 254 (0.53%)
Others: 137 (0.29%)
Majority: 92 (0.19%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18200 (43.7%)
Conservative: 14125 (33.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8257 (19.8%)
Other: 1111 (2.7%)
Majority: 4075 (9.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15175 (37.4%)
Labour: 17239 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7241 (17.9%)
UKIP: 524 (1.3%)
Other: 364 (0.9%)
Majority: 2064 (5.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13863 (33.6%)
Labour: 19381 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 7573 (18.4%)
Other: 397 (1%)
Majority: 5518 (13.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17270 (35.1%)
Labour: 24342 (49.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5309 (10.8%)
Referendum: 865 (1.8%)
Other: 1374 (2.8%)
Majority: 7072 (14.4%)
Boundary changes: Bolton loses most of Hulton and a small part of Rumworth ward to
Profile: Bolton West contains very little of Bolton itself, just the relatively affluent outskirts like Heaton. The majority of the seat is made up of the suburban and rural commuter belt between Bolton and Wigan, including the town of Horwich (home of Bolton Wanderers) and the former mining towns of Westhoughton and Atherton and the village of Blackrod. The seat is the most affluent of the three Bolton seats, with the largest proportion of owner-occupiers. While the boundary changes have made the seat somewhat safer, as of October 2006 Ruth Kelly remains the cabinet minister in the most vulnerable seat.
Current MP: Julie Hilling (Labour) Regional organiser for the TSSA.
Susan Williams (Conservative) born Cork. Trafford councillor since 1998 and leader of Trafford Council since 2004. Julie Hilling (Labour) Regional organiser for the TSSA.
Jackie Pearcey (Liberal Democrat) born 1963. Educated at Leeds Girls High School and Bristol University. Former nuclear physicist, now working as a computer trainer. Manchester councillor since 1991. Contested Davyhulme 1992, Manchester Gorton 1997, 2001.
Rachel Mann (Green)
Harry Lamb (UKIP) Managing Director.
Doug Bagnall (You Party)Jimmy Jones (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90425
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 23.6%
Over 60: 20%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 96.6%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 2.1%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 82.2%
Hindu: 1%
Muslim: 1.1%
Full time students: 2.8%
Graduates 16-74: 19.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.3%
Owner-Occupied: 76.6%
Social Housing: 16.8% (Council: 13.2%, Housing Ass.: 3.5%)
Privately Rented: 4.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
I don’t think it’s sour grapes at all to point out the effect of boundary changes. There are plenty of other seats where the changes have worked in favour of the Conservatives and those have also been discussed on the relevant threads.
Nik, do you think Labour would have held this seat if Ruth Kelly stood here at the last Election?
Nik clearly has local knowledge.
It’s very difficult to tell,
but Julie Hilling seems like a good candidate who must have been worth a few extra votes.
I suspect the change of candidate did Labour no harm at all.
It’s not actually that bad a Con result either,
but Labour put up a good defence.
Having a local candidate seems to have paid off for them.
‘I suspect the change of candidate did Labour no harm at all.’
This has always been a swing seat which has actually voted Labour mnore than Tory since the war, although the Tories doid well holding onto this up until 1997
It is more middle class than most Greater Manchester seats but I suspect this is one of the few cases in 2010 where he change of candidate resulted in a hold rather a loss
It’s good to see candidates making a difference here and there, in a bad election for their party,
although this was also exactly one of the seats which meant the Tories didn’t get an overall majority, which is disappointing from our point of view.
I’m not sure whether the boundary changes of 2010, removed all the advantage the Tories gained (fruitlessly) in the 1995-97 review, but it appears to have undone about two thirds of it.
Only one mention of Tom Sackville on this thread (which wrongly states that he was first elected in 1979 rather than 1983). He must have been quite a low profile MP although he was a Home Office minister for a while. His main claim to fame today seems to be as chairman of an anti-cult organisation called the Family Survival Trust.
He was a Health Minister, and seemed fairly competent.
The boundary change to include parts of Atherton did for the conservatives in this constituency. Had the old boundaries been maintained then Labour would have lost.
The proposed boundary changes here are interesting. Anthony has ‘Bolton North’ as a Labour marginal (majority c.1800) but Channel 4 has it down as ‘probably Tory’. Any views?
I’ll get the ball rolling. Looking at the local election data, Labour might fancy their chances here, even if the Conservatives do well nationally. Tonge, Halliwell, and Crompton look strongly Labour. The Conservatives will be relying on Bromley Cross and Heaton I imagine.
The first tranche of target seats from the Conservatives in 2013…..include some seats they’ve already called for, which tells its own story I think
Anyway, the ten seats in the latest update (including some they’ve already mentioned) are
Birmingham Northfield
Bolton West
Brecon and Radnorshire
Chippenham
Chorley
Eastbourne
Mid Dorset and North Poole
Middlesborough South and East Cleveland
Morley and Outwood
North Devon
Somerton and Frome
Telford
Torbay
Vale of Clwyd