Bolton West
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18200 (43.7%)
Conservative: 14125 (33.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8257 (19.8%)
Other: 1111 (2.7%)
Majority: 4075 (9.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15175 (37.4%)
Labour: 17239 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7241 (17.9%)
UKIP: 524 (1.3%)
Other: 364 (0.9%)
Majority: 2064 (5.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13863 (33.6%)
Labour: 19381 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 7573 (18.4%)
Other: 397 (1%)
Majority: 5518 (13.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17270 (35.1%)
Labour: 24342 (49.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5309 (10.8%)
Referendum: 865 (1.8%)
Other: 1374 (2.8%)
Majority: 7072 (14.4%)
Boundary changes: Bolton loses most of Hulton and a small part of Rumworth ward to
Profile: Bolton West contains very little of Bolton itself, just the relatively affluent outskirts like Heaton. The majority of the seat is made up of the suburban and rural commuter belt between Bolton and Wigan, including the town of Horwich (home of Bolton Wanderers) and the former mining towns of Westhoughton and Atherton and the village of Blackrod. The seat is the most affluent of the three Bolton seats, with the largest proportion of owner-occupiers. While the boundary changes have made the seat somewhat safer, as of October 2006 Ruth Kelly remains the cabinet minister in the most vulnerable seat.
Current MP: Ruth Kelly(Labour) born 1968, Northern Ireland. Educated at Sutton High School and Queen`s College, Oxford. Before becoming an MP she worked for the Guardian and the Bank of England. First elected in 1997. Became a junior treasury minister in 2001, and was promoted to Minister of State in the cabinet office in September 2004 and became Secretary of State for education in December 2004, becoming the youngest female cabinet minister ever. Following the local elections in 2006 she took over the departmental responsibilties of John Prescott as the new Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, also becoming Minister for Women and Equality. Kelly is a devout Catholic and reportedly a member of Opus Dei. Her presumed religious views on homosexuality led some to question the decision to give her responsibility for government policy on equality. Secretary of State for Transport 2007-2008. Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Susan Williams (Conservative) born Cork. Trafford councillor since 1998 and leader of Trafford Council since 2004. 
Julie Hilling (Labour) Regional organiser for the TSSA.
Jackie Pearcey (Liberal Democrat) born 1963. Educated at Leeds Girls High School and Bristol University. Former nuclear physicist, now working as a computer trainer. Manchester councillor since 1991. Contested Davyhulme 1992, Manchester Gorton 1997, 2001.
Harry Lamb (UKIP) Managing Director.
Rachel Mann (Green)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90425
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 23.6%
Over 60: 20%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 96.6%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 2.1%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 82.2%
Hindu: 1%
Muslim: 1.1%
Full time students: 2.8%
Graduates 16-74: 19.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.3%
Owner-Occupied: 76.6%
Social Housing: 16.8% (Council: 13.2%, Housing Ass.: 3.5%)
Privately Rented: 4.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
Joe, you are right in the sense that the troubles of the Tories in the mid ’90s were not the fault of Major. The fatal choice was made at the time years before when the decision was taken to join the ERM. It was always likely to end in tears for whichever party was in power. However what the Tories in the mid 90s had to do was to convince enough people that a positive change of government had taken place within the Conservative Party, as happened when Thatcher was replaced. A change of leader would have been an essential pre-requisite of creating this impression. Had this happened, accompanied by policy changes and withdrawing the whip from the likes of Neil Hamilton then I firmly believe that at least 50 more Tory seats could have been saved at the ‘97 election.
John Major was, and is, a fundamentally decent man who was sadly out of his depth in trying to lead the Conservative Party at such a turbulent time. Certainly he has many qualities to which Brown can only aspire. Not having a referendum on Maastricht was however one amongst many serious misjudgements. Yes it would have split the Tory Party, but it would have divided Labour as well and would have dragged most of the opposition into also supporting what would probably have been a defeated treaty. The Tory civil war on Europe would still have happened, and it would have still ended in the ultimate, inevitable victory of the Euro-sceptic faction, but it would have been far less damaging.
“Replacing John Major wouldn’t have made all that much difference – although I can’t prove it.”
An interesting counter-factual.
Personally I think Heseltine or Clarke as leader might have scraped the Tories 50 more seats in 1997. Redwood would certainly have done worse than Major. As probably would Portillo, given the fact that he was a bit of a national hate-figure at the time.
“The Tory civil war on Europe would still have happened, and it would have still ended in the ultimate, inevitable victory of the Euro-sceptic faction, but it would have been far less damaging.”
That is premature in the extreme. We’ll soon see how Cameron in government handles the European issue, and it’s a good bet that he’ll have to fudge and compromise as all governments have to, to the inevitable fury of the “euro-sceptic faction”.
In office, the Tories will have to choose to either bury their rhetoric on renegotiating existing treaties and repatriating EU powers, or leave the EU, risking economic suicide. The potential for a new civil war to break out in the party along these lines may be considerable.
I opposed the ERM in the sense I’m against what it was supposed to lead to, and what it was being used for.
However, I actually think that 90% of that recession we would have had anyway as we needed a high interest rate to get inflation down – and had we loosened up in 1991 or early 1992 we may have gone on with inflation of 3 or 4 or 5 percent as we still did in the 80s – it’s not good enough.
Kieran and HH may be correct that Clarke or Heseltine could have done some damage limitation, perhaps.
I think leaving the election to 1997 did make the outcome somewhat worse, but essentially, if people have made up their minds decisively that they want a change, there’s not much you can do.
I actually think my earlier comment of a reverse of the result here may still be too high as that would indicate a swing of around 10% – perhaps a 2,000/3,000 majority.
H.HEMMELIG, these days (in contrast to the period up to 1997) the Conservative Parliamentary Party and leadership is overwhelmingly Euro-sceptic, so in that sense that faction was victorious. That is aside from the practicalities of implementing a Euro-sceptic policy once the party is in government to which you refer.
I am not a supporter of EU withdrawal but I simply do not buy this idea that such a course of action would result in the UK risking some kind of economic armageddon. I view withdrawal as a perfectly viable potential option. The fact is that for some time now it has been the settled will of the UK electorate that the kind of relationship that the want the UK to have with the rest of the EU is that of being part of an organisation based very much on free trade with a strictly limited loss of national sovereignty, and with the possibility of the repatriation of some powers to the UK parliament. Of course repatriation and renegotiation require the support of other European countries. If that support is not forthcoming then of course we have to look at other options.
I am though highly sceptical about the idea that the other countries of Europe would ever put us in a situation where we had no choice but to withdraw. But if it became apparent that providing the British people with the kind of political relationship with the EU that they clearly want was incompatible with continued membership then that is not a prospect that we should be afraid of.
HH
“That is premature in the extreme. We’ll soon see how Cameron in government handles the European issue, and it’s a good bet that he’ll have to fudge and compromise as all governments have to, to the inevitable fury of the “euro-sceptic faction”.
In office, the Tories will have to choose to either bury their rhetoric on renegotiating existing treaties and repatriating EU powers, or leave the EU, risking economic suicide. The potential for a new civil war to break out in the party along these lines may be considerable.”
There is no euro-sceptic faction in the Conservative party, it has now overwhelming support of MPs, activists, members, supporters and voters. Any attempt by Cameron to surrender on Europe would destroy his government and he’s far to skilful a politician to make a mistake like that. Remember that unlike the 1990s there is now in UKIP a ready made protest party for disgruntled Conservatives.
Your surrender to the EU policy has seen this country lose out every time it is applied – see Blair’s surrender on the budget rebate for instance. On the other side when a hard line is taken with the EU concessions are won. Ultimately this country is a nett contributor to the EU and also has a trade deficit with the EU so we have a lot stronger bargaining position than you seem to think.
In terms of predicting this seat then I believe that the 1983 result will be a useful guideline – I predict that Labour will perform worse than 1983, but the boundary changes will help them just about claw back to this level of support.
In terms of Labour Leadership, maybe Harriett Harperson is in the front seat! Some of the constituencies will have to have a name change…..’Manchester Withington’ will have to change to ‘non-genderchester Withington!’….it’s all a bit of a joke!
According to the Facebook group “Save General Election Night” the Bolton seats are planning to count on the Friday. Comments on this site are generally hostile to such a plan not just in terms of popular interest also to ensure that the votes are counted as soon as possible to minimise any theoretical possibilities of tampering.
As with Bolton North-East, this seat is in the range on the Conservative Target list where the result is important as to which party forms the next Government. It would be a great pity to have the result declared whilst people are at work rather than on election night.
This is indeed bad news for election result watchers!!
We could end up with a situation whereby Mr Brown doesn’t have to go and see the Queen until Saturday lunch time!!
There appears to be a storm of opposition to Friday counting in Newcastle, but is it happening here? This is a key marginal where people will be looking to the result, and where the best possible counting arrangements are particularly important.
Rachel Mann is Green Party candidate
Can you please update. Rachel Mann-Green Party candidate.
Thanks
Another seat where boundary changes make it less marginal for Labour.
However there is no incumbency as Ruth Kelly is standing down.
Opinion polling seems shows North West as a whole to be good ground for Tories.
I predict Con gain.
I’m not so sure about a Tory gain here. For 12 years I lived on the Mount Skip estate in nearby Little Hulton. My father was a Labour councillor in the 1960’s. Places like Atherton and Westhoughton – cow’yed city – have a long tradition of voting Labour for social rather than political reasons.
I think this will go Tory IMHO, I think the national swing may be a little too much. Even if a strong local campaign is fought.