Bolton West
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18200 (43.7%)
Conservative: 14125 (33.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8257 (19.8%)
Other: 1111 (2.7%)
Majority: 4075 (9.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15175 (37.4%)
Labour: 17239 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7241 (17.9%)
UKIP: 524 (1.3%)
Other: 364 (0.9%)
Majority: 2064 (5.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13863 (33.6%)
Labour: 19381 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 7573 (18.4%)
Other: 397 (1%)
Majority: 5518 (13.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17270 (35.1%)
Labour: 24342 (49.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5309 (10.8%)
Referendum: 865 (1.8%)
Other: 1374 (2.8%)
Majority: 7072 (14.4%)
Boundary changes: Bolton loses most of Hulton and a small part of Rumworth ward to
Profile: Bolton West contains very little of Bolton itself, just the relatively affluent outskirts like Heaton. The majority of the seat is made up of the suburban and rural commuter belt between Bolton and Wigan, including the town of Horwich (home of Bolton Wanderers) and the former mining towns of Westhoughton and Atherton and the village of Blackrod. The seat is the most affluent of the three Bolton seats, with the largest proportion of owner-occupiers. While the boundary changes have made the seat somewhat safer, as of October 2006 Ruth Kelly remains the cabinet minister in the most vulnerable seat.
Current MP: Ruth Kelly(Labour) born 1968, Northern Ireland. Educated at Sutton High School and Queen`s College, Oxford. Before becoming an MP she worked for the Guardian and the Bank of England. First elected in 1997. Became a junior treasury minister in 2001, and was promoted to Minister of State in the cabinet office in September 2004 and became Secretary of State for education in December 2004, becoming the youngest female cabinet minister ever. Following the local elections in 2006 she took over the departmental responsibilties of John Prescott as the new Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, also becoming Minister for Women and Equality. Kelly is a devout Catholic and reportedly a member of Opus Dei. Her presumed religious views on homosexuality led some to question the decision to give her responsibility for government policy on equality. Secretary of State for Transport 2007-2008. Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Susan Williams (Conservative) born Cork. Trafford councillor since 1998 and leader of Trafford Council since 2004. 
Julie Hilling (Labour) Regional organiser for the TSSA.
Jackie Pearcey (Liberal Democrat) born 1963. Educated at Leeds Girls High School and Bristol University. Former nuclear physicist, now working as a computer trainer. Manchester councillor since 1991. Contested Davyhulme 1992, Manchester Gorton 1997, 2001.
Harry Lamb (UKIP) Managing Director.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90425
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 23.6%
Over 60: 20%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 96.6%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 2.1%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 82.2%
Hindu: 1%
Muslim: 1.1%
Full time students: 2.8%
Graduates 16-74: 19.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.3%
Owner-Occupied: 76.6%
Social Housing: 16.8% (Council: 13.2%, Housing Ass.: 3.5%)
Privately Rented: 4.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
Can anyone explain why such a seat -85th in the Tories hit list- is considered to be 50/50 while the likes of Gloucester [119] and N.W.Leicestershire[81] are 1/2 and 2/5 !! respectively.
I suspect Labour had MUCH bigger majorities in the latter two constituencies. Anyone?
Could be something to do with regionality ! North West England has been rather a blackspot for the Tories for some years. The region in general recorded a swing away from con to lab as far back as the 87 GE - whilst the Midlands and South West were still swinging towards the tories.
The Tories may well improve their position next time in NW England, but I still think the Midlands and the South will be a more fertile area for them.
I’m not sure really. It seems like the North West, and the West Midlands are quite promising for them. It looks like London is lagging the swing a bit this time - unlike 1979. But of course this could all turn out to be wrong.
“Bolton W. bucks the trend odds wise: Evens despite Labour taking this seat by only 2,100 votes. ”
This doesnt take acount of the boundary changes which effectively double that majority
This is an interesting debate….the question is ‘can labour hold on to any existing seats, where they had a majority of 5000 or less in 2005??? I’m not convinced that they can this time around. In 1997 there was an ‘across the board’ 10% swing towards labour and I think that this time around any swing away from labour could be broadly consistent across the country. I might take a trip to ‘the bookies’ in order to test this theory!
I would ask Shadsy but he’s gone missing!
SHADSY!
Where are you?
A Conservative gain as a most likely.
Labour would narrowly hold on if there is some unexpected event or change of views on the economy.
What are your views?
Bookies don’t have a crystal ball.
Ruth Kelly standing down will help Labour as she associted with the current crop - and the stigma that goes with them. ie.No “trophy” now. Issues more likely to be local.
Also the boundary changes help Labour tho’ again bookies don;t seem to have factored this in .
Cons @ 1/2 isn’t generous but based on the predicted national swing is probably the right call.
I agree JLabour need something drastic to happen. Have the Argentinians any plans to invade the Faulklands Islands?
You may be right on most of that.
I think the real unexpected event is if the economy picks up and there’s some fears about spending cuts.
But trying to predict the unexpected is a bit of a contradiction.
It’s the less likely of the two outcomes.
My Prediction for this seat:
Conservative: 20,500
Labour 12,000
Liberal Democrats: 8,000