Bolton West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18235 (38.33%)
Labour: 18327 (38.52%)
Liberal Democrat: 8177 (17.19%)
UKIP: 1901 (4%)
Green: 545 (1.15%)
Independent: 254 (0.53%)
Others: 137 (0.29%)
Majority: 92 (0.19%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18200 (43.7%)
Conservative: 14125 (33.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8257 (19.8%)
Other: 1111 (2.7%)
Majority: 4075 (9.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15175 (37.4%)
Labour: 17239 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7241 (17.9%)
UKIP: 524 (1.3%)
Other: 364 (0.9%)
Majority: 2064 (5.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13863 (33.6%)
Labour: 19381 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 7573 (18.4%)
Other: 397 (1%)
Majority: 5518 (13.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17270 (35.1%)
Labour: 24342 (49.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5309 (10.8%)
Referendum: 865 (1.8%)
Other: 1374 (2.8%)
Majority: 7072 (14.4%)
Boundary changes: Bolton loses most of Hulton and a small part of Rumworth ward to
Profile: Bolton West contains very little of Bolton itself, just the relatively affluent outskirts like Heaton. The majority of the seat is made up of the suburban and rural commuter belt between Bolton and Wigan, including the town of Horwich (home of Bolton Wanderers) and the former mining towns of Westhoughton and Atherton and the village of Blackrod. The seat is the most affluent of the three Bolton seats, with the largest proportion of owner-occupiers. While the boundary changes have made the seat somewhat safer, as of October 2006 Ruth Kelly remains the cabinet minister in the most vulnerable seat.
Current MP: Julie Hilling (Labour) Regional organiser for the TSSA.
Susan Williams (Conservative) born Cork. Trafford councillor since 1998 and leader of Trafford Council since 2004. Julie Hilling (Labour) Regional organiser for the TSSA.
Jackie Pearcey (Liberal Democrat) born 1963. Educated at Leeds Girls High School and Bristol University. Former nuclear physicist, now working as a computer trainer. Manchester councillor since 1991. Contested Davyhulme 1992, Manchester Gorton 1997, 2001.
Rachel Mann (Green)
Harry Lamb (UKIP) Managing Director.
Doug Bagnall (You Party)Jimmy Jones (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90425
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 23.6%
Over 60: 20%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 96.6%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 2.1%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 82.2%
Hindu: 1%
Muslim: 1.1%
Full time students: 2.8%
Graduates 16-74: 19.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.3%
Owner-Occupied: 76.6%
Social Housing: 16.8% (Council: 13.2%, Housing Ass.: 3.5%)
Privately Rented: 4.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9%
I think Atherton was added to this seat in the boundary changes and in the local elections the Tories polled just 15.8% in the Atherton ward of Wigan council.
It was always talked about as if it was the same marginal seat but the boundary changes made it much harder for the Tories so they did quite well considering.
Prior to the election Sky news listed this as safe Labour due to the boundary change taking in parts of Atherton and Halliwell.
Remember Labour also held this seat in 1979 and everyone i know seems to work in the Public Sector so cuts will have a big impact. You could probably slash the council budget here by 75% and it wouldn’t make them any more incompetent than they already are.
Here’s my prediction which I wroe on this forum in July last year (2009).
”I think you’re prediciton about the Con majority is slightly incorrect. Now that Kelly is standing down (which I think is a shame because I like her.) Labour will clsoe the gap and if Alan Johnson becomes PM at the next G.E. they could possibly just hold on.”
As my quote from above shows, I never thought Labour with Brown at the helm would hold onto marginal seats like this one. Considering that Cameron spent a lot if time in this seat and neighbouring seats, it goes to show that the Tories simply did not seal the deal with many electorates.
Here’s my prediciton I made for this seat on 29th July 2009.
”Neil, I think you’re prediciton about the Con majority is slightly incorrect. Now that Kelly is standing down (which I think is a shame because I like her.) Labour will clsoe the gap and if Alan Johnson becomes PM at the next G.E. they could possibly just hold on.”
I never thought in a million years that Labour would be able to hold onto an affluent / middle class seat like this with Brown at the helm. Cameron must be very dissapointed with the result here considering the fact tha he spent a lot of time in this and neighbouring seats during the Election campaign. It just goes to show that Cameron simply didn’t connect with many electorates’.
I think it was made a fair bit harder by the boundary changes, but because there was a sizeable swing in 2005, some of us went on believing what we wanted to believe.
It’s interesting how most of us thought this would be a lot easier for the Tories to win than Morecambe & Lunesdale but we got it wrong. Maybe that rural element in M+L made things easier for the Tories than seats like this.
That is a very good point.
I’m pretty sure what made me think this would be won (apart from a wobble around summer 2007, and end 2008)
is the swing in 2005, that it was on a trend.
Morcambe & Lunesdale is not an area I know in any detail, but I think the rural element would be decisive as you say.
I suppose I assumed it had less of the white working class swing voter and industry (e.g. in Cleethorpes) to provide a counter trend to the faded resort which is probably a Labour long term trend.
But I may have been wrong on the last paragraph, although the very poor local elections for the outgoing government did make me change my view somewhat.
“I suppose I assumed it had less of the white working class swing voter and industry (e.g. in Cleethorpes) to provide a counter trend to the faded resort which is probably a Labour long term trend.”
Maybe, although Heysham perhaps fits the bill as the equivalent to Immingham. I don’t know the area either though. There are some similarities though which I hadn’t previously considered with both seats containing a main large town which is a faded seaside resort, a smaller industrial town which may have trended away from Labour and some very solid Tory rural areas.