Bolton South East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10148 (25.62%)
Labour: 18782 (47.42%)
Liberal Democrat: 6289 (15.88%)
BNP: 2012 (5.08%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.95%)
Green: 614 (1.55%)
Others: 195 (0.49%)
Majority: 8634 (21.8%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21897 (55.6%)
Conservative: 9245 (23.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6884 (17.5%)
Other: 1392 (3.5%)
Majority: 12652 (32.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6491 (20.4%)
Labour: 18129 (56.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6047 (19%)
UKIP: 840 (2.6%)
Other: 343 (1.1%)
Majority: 11638 (36.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8258 (24.2%)
Labour: 21129 (61.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3941 (11.5%)
Other: 826 (2.4%)
Majority: 12871 (37.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8545 (19.7%)
Labour: 29856 (68.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3805 (8.8%)
Referendum: 973 (2.2%)
Other: 170 (0.4%)
Majority: 21311 (49.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Yasmin Qureshi (Labour) born Gujrat. Barrister and human rights advisor to Ken Livingstone. Contested Brent East 2005.
Andy Morgan (Conservative) Yasmin Qureshi (Labour) born Gujrat. Barrister and human rights advisor to Ken Livingstone. Contested Brent East 2005.Donal O`Hanlon (Liberal Democrat) Alan Johnson (Green)Ian Sidaway (UKIP)Sheila Spink (BNP) Navaid Syed (CPA) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94395
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 25.8%
Over 60: 18.5%
Born outside UK: 9.6%
White: 83.6%
Black: 0.7%
Asian: 14.1%
Mixed: 1.1%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 69.4%
Hindu: 3.2%
Muslim: 10.9%
Full time students: 3.7%
Graduates 16-74: 11.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.8%
Owner-Occupied: 63.5%
Social Housing: 27% (Council: 20.3%, Housing Ass.: 6.7%)
Privately Rented: 5.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 15.8%
This is easily the safest of Labour’s 3 seats in Bolton. It is noteworthy that while, a few years ago, some Tory Muslim candidates had some measure of success in some normally Labour inner-city territory here, there has been a Labour recovery since in Borough elections.
Labour is currently selection their new PPC. They’ve received 53 applications. Among those there’re Kevin Meagher (CLP chair), Yasmin Qureshi (Brent East 2005 candidate; her family lives in Bolton), Cllr Akhtar Zaman, Julie Hilling (vice-chair of Bolton West CLP), Phil Collins (Blair’s former speechwriter), Ian Stewart MP (lost selection against Barbara Keeley in Worsley and Eccles South after a seat was abolished in Salford area), Nargis Khan (Hackney councillor, originally from Bolton), Jane Lewis (from Bury North) and Joan Veitch (from Salford)
Labour will select the new candidate on August 26…the shortlist is:
Julie Hilling (Bolton West CLP Vice-Chairman)
Richard Jackson (Altrincham vet)
Nargis Khan (Hackney Councillor)
Kevin Meagher (Bolton South East CLP Chairman)
Yasmin Qureshi (2005 Brent East PPC)
Akhtar Zaman (Bolton Councillor)
Where is Ruth Kelly going to stand?
Is she going to be going down in Bolton West?
Boundary changes have probably saved her there
Just noticed that Yasmin Qureshi has been selected here. I think she was the person who fought Brent East in 2005 against Sarah Teather. Losing there was a poor result, but it looks like she’s got a long career ahead of her in this seat.
BBC North West Today are reporting that three ward branches have asked the Labour Party NEC to launch an investigation into the ballot that selected Qureshi.
Kevin Meagher – who was the runner-up – has called for the ballot to be re-run.
Bolton Evening News now have the story:
link
I find it slightly amazing that such a strong Labour seat only has 242 members. (Maybe 242 is very good in reality. I’m not an expert on local political membership.)
Doesnt sound all that healthy, as it’s not that much more than we have here
2008 locals
Lab 9442 (42.35%)
Con 7042 (31.58)
LD 4611 (20.68)
Greens 617 (2.76)
Others 582 (2.61)
The tories didn’t contest a ward (a cock-up IIRC), it was a safe Labour ward but it probably costed an around 2% in the overll figures above (judging from their 2007 performance in that ward).
Labour won 4 wards, Con 2 and LD 1
Apparently the Labour PPC is a former Crown Prosecution Service case officer. Not much in her history to show support for the white working class.
Would I be right in assuming Labour’s NEC rejected the rerunning of the Labour selection here?
Yasmin Qureshi was a barrister working as a proseuctor and not a case worker.
And as for her committment for the white working classes, if you actually bothered to reserach her background, she has spent most of her life helping the most vulnerable and weak members of our society and that has been anyone, included many white working persons aND ALL OF IT WAS DONE VOLUNTARY AND TOOK MONEY.
So please don not rely on rubbish written by jealous persons and Tory right.
Yes the Nec did look at it and everything was correct. Even disgrunted Kevin adcknowleged that the seleciton was ran properly.
The truth is Yasmin has very good CV and worked VERY hard to try to get selected. She had no help from anyone.
i AM SORRY i HAVE MADE AN ERROR IN THE EARLIER COMMENT. i MEANT TO SAY SHE HAS NEVER TAKEN ANY MONEY FOR HER VOLUNTARY WORK
Conservatives have selected local councillor Andy Morgan to stand here (hat-tip to Conhome)
Andrew Morgan has a very high profile locally and I am told a lot of labour supporters are no happy about Quershi and a lot of them actually like Andy (not your normal tory). All in all this might be a lot closer that suspected and might be another Crewe result on the night.
Lib Dem vote needs to be squeezed by the Tories but Counsellor Morgan may just have a chance.
The Lib Dems have selected Donal O’Hanlon here
What aload of rubbish about Andrew Morgan being high profile local and liked by labour.
Hisis figure of fun, not liked even by the Tories. He was chosen because not oe else ran for it.
There were three members of labour party unhappy that there man lost the seletion but even they are okay about. \
Well, fortunately for John, Labour are not about to lose Bolton South East, regardless of how good Andy Morgan may or may not be, or how happy (or otherwise) the local party are with Yasmin Qureshi.
Obviously John knows nothing about Bolotn politics and nothing about Andrew or the local Tory Party. I think Andrew would be a good MP and the Labour Party locally is a shambles and in a mess.
If Ms Quershi is so good why has she not appeared in Bolton since her selection?
Could be an interesting turn around in 2010 if Yasmin wins here and her former rival Sarah Teather looses in Brent Central (both results probably more likely than not to happen).
I don’ think someone should be posting in the name of Yasmin Qureshi unless it really is her.
It wasn’t. Yasmin Qureshi’s local party have confirmed the comment was nothing whatsoever to do with her, so it has been deleted and the address blocked.
GE Prediction:
Labour: 17,000
Conservatives: 13500
Liberal Democrats: 8,000
According to the Facebook group “Save General Election Night” the Bolton seats are planning to count on the Friday. Comments on this site are generally hostile to such a plan not just in terms of popular interest also to ensure that the votes are counted as soon as possible to minimise any possibilities of tampering.
Labour will very probably win here; but it is conceivable that it will be a shock result that people will want to see. If, as the polls currently indicate, the national swing is about 10% it is quite conceivable that it will be 16% in a few cases, and there are indications from qualitative comments elsewhere on this site that Northern working class seats may as a group be swinging above average against Labour.
Alan Johnson is the Green Party candidate
alan johnson is green party candidate for bolton south east (not north east)
Lab Hold= 7,000 maj
Nawaid Syed is standing for the CPA
Lab hold maj 6000
Lab Hold
Maj 8200
Sheila Spink standing for BNP
Lab maj 6,500
The Labour candidiate does not seem to be going down well at all. This one might be clser to call than people think.
LAB HOLD
I see the BNP held their deposit in this seat even though they hadn’t stood here before. Was this due to the ethnic Labour PPC or is there a local BNP branch in Bolton?