Bolton North East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15786 (36.48%)
Labour: 19870 (45.91%)
Liberal Democrat: 5624 (13%)
UKIP: 1815 (4.19%)
Others: 182 (0.42%)
Majority: 4084 (9.43%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15248 (45.4%)
Conservative: 11667 (34.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5556 (16.5%)
Other: 1100 (3.3%)
Majority: 3581 (10.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12771 (34.6%)
Labour: 16874 (45.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 6044 (16.4%)
UKIP: 640 (1.7%)
Other: 582 (1.6%)
Majority: 4103 (11.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12744 (32.7%)
Labour: 21166 (54.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4004 (10.3%)
Green: 629 (1.6%)
Other: 407 (1%)
Majority: 8422 (21.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14952 (30.4%)
Labour: 27621 (56.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4862 (9.9%)
Referendum: 1096 (2.2%)
Other: 676 (1.4%)
Majority: 12669 (25.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: David Crausby(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Deborah Dunleavy (Conservative) Contested Bolton South East in 2005David Crausby(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Paul Ankers (Liberal Democrat)Neil Johnson (UKIP) Norma Armston (You Party)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90223
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 23.8%
Over 60: 21%
Born outside UK: 7.3%
White: 88.6%
Black: 0.7%
Asian: 9.4%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 74.1%
Hindu: 1.4%
Muslim: 8.1%
Full time students: 3.6%
Graduates 16-74: 15.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.8%
Owner-Occupied: 67.2%
Social Housing: 23.4% (Council: 18.1%, Housing Ass.: 5.3%)
Privately Rented: 6.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 15.2%
Nick, my view is that any ‘swing’ constituencies, i.e. the ones which were conservative in 1992, will turn back to the Conservatives next time around, whatever Labour decides to do. Bolton NE is one of these seats and there are many of these in Lancashire, Derbyshire, Notts, London, West Midlands.
When it comes to Wales, the Tories had not recovered in 1992, but I believe that they will reach their 1979 level of support.
These seats will give the Tories a small majority (hence the Sky News Prediction on Friday)
The difficult seats to predict are in Scotland, Merseyside, Manchester, South West of England, English Cities etc – i.e. the ones which were held/marginal by the Tories in 1983. It is very difficult to say for certain whether, for example, the Tories can win in Worsely, Ellesmere Port and Neston, Leicester West and South, Edinburgh South etc – these seats will depend on the extent of the Labour demise and is what makes this election very interesting.
Was Bolton town centre in Bolton E 1950-83 and this seat since ’83?
I think it may have been divided between Boltons East and West between 1950 and 1983 but am not sure exactly where the boundary lay.
According to the Facebook group “Save General Election Night” the Bolton seats are planning to count on the Friday. Comments on this site are generally hostile to such a plan not just in terms of popular interest also to ensure that the votes are counted as soon as possible to minimise any possibilities of tampering.
Let me add, in other seats concerned, e.g. in Newcastle, it has been said that the constituency result does not particularly matter nationally. But for Conservative Target 93 clearly the result here IS important in relation to who will form the next Government.
There appears to be a storm of opposition to Friday counting in Newcastle, but is it happening here too? This is a key marginal where people will be looking to the result, and where the best possible counting arrangements are particularly important.
I saw that Bolton was mentioned on the Facebook page which is obviously disappointing.
Has there been some kind of concerted communication between councils on this issue? It seems very strange that we’ve gone from only 5 British seats not declaring on the night in 2005 to so many intimating that they would like to count on the next day in 2010. It sounds a bit like some influential council figure has come up with a bright idea for saving money and has been going round the country (or sending emails) encouraging as many councils as possible to take his/her advice.
I’ve seen a suggestion that there is an idea within the Conservative Party – presumably their local government network trying to show the Tories save money. Of course, not all the councils proposing Friday counts are Conservative.
One might observe that Councils would not have instigated night-time counting, with its additional expense (but reduced storage costs) unless for a very good reason. Council administrators are not generally known for working at night! And of course the very good reason is to prevent possibilities, however unlikely, of interference with the ballot boxes.
Times may be hard now, but night counting was introduced when the UK was much less prosperous than in the twenty-first century.
I don’t know for certain but I think the majority of constituencies have been counted on the night since 1950. If we could afford and manage to do it in 1950, when rationing was still in operation and many towns and cities were still suffering from widespread bombing damage, there’s really no excuse for not being able to do so in 2010.
Alan Johnston is Green Party candidate
Alan Johnston is the Green Party candidate is Bolton South East, not Bolton North East.
I remember Peter Thurnham leaving the Conservative Party and first being an Independent and then joining the LibDems. What happened to him after 1997 please?
I am predicting another NW Con Gain here.
Peter Election Follower – Yes, he supported capital punishment. On the Gloucester thread I’ve mentioned that I’m researching former Tory MPs. A lot have joined UKIP and a few went Lab, LD etc. The ex Southport Tory MP Matthew Banks is another ’97 Tory NW who joined the LDs, although not until last year.
Thank you Lancs Observer
Peter Election Follower – I just looked up Thurnham. He died 18 months ago, aged 69, hours after marrying his 2nd wife. He was PPS to Robert Jackson – another Tory who defected months before a General. Both were also raised abroad (India & Rhodesia) and products of public school, Oxbridge as with other defectors Quentin Davies, Peter Temple Morris et al
Sad to see Peter Thurnham has died.
Thank you again.
As a resident in this seat I have noticed the Tories are working it quite hard. They were handing out flyers for Cameron’s visit next week as I got off the train last night.
Cons Gain= 1,500 maj
CON 3500
C gain maj 3000
Con Gain
Maj 900
Con maj 1,500
CON GAIN
totally wrong of all of us. freakishly good Labour result
The Tories have never won this seat in any guise by more than 2,443 votes so although the Tories should have done better it’s not so surprising they didn’t win given they were only on 37% nationally.
The size of the Labour lead surprised me. That Labour held the seat shouldn’t have done. The boundary changes resulted in a larger notional Labour majority than on the old boundaries and that on top of changes in 1997 which had already made the seat better for Labour converting a narrow Conservative hold in 1992 to a clear Labour lead which means the same would have occurred in 1987. In other words the only election the Conservatives would have won this seat was in 1983 when they had a majority of well over 100 and at a time when they performed more strongly generally in this region. So the result should not really surprise anyone but I admit it did surprise me. This is one of a number of seats where I feel I was persuaded by the bookies odds that it was a sure Tory gain when what I should be doing (and did in some other cases) is making my own judgement and then deciding whether the bookies are wrong. An important lesson for next time.
“This is one of a number of seats where I feel I was persuaded by the bookies odds that it was a sure Tory gain when what I should be doing (and did in some other cases) is making my own judgement and then deciding whether the bookies are wrong. An important lesson for next time.”
Which seats Pete?
Seats which I found backing my own judgement on to be profitable were:
Bradford W (very profitable)
Batley
Halifax
Leeds NE
Stirling
Oxford E
Hampstead
Cambourne
Montgomeryshire
Harrogate
I expected a LibDem hold in Torbay – but allowed myself to be influenced by Marcus Wood’s big talking into not backing them.
The best in terms of the odds I had were:
Luton South 7/2
Chesterfield 3/1
Halifax 3/1
Cornwall SE 5/2
Hamspstead 2/1
Brighton Pavilion 2/1
Watford 7/4
Oxford East 6/4
I lost on more seats than I won because I didn’t back anyone where the odds were lower than evens – probably should have done for a bit of easy money – but I won back more money than I bet precisely because I was betting against high odds.
I came very close in Cardiff North and Hendon where I got odds of 5/1
Actually, the Tory vote did quietly improve in this seat rather more than the national averages in 2001 and 2005, although one wouldn’t necessarily notice it much.
It’s probably not down against 1992 more than the average.
But a rather weak Lib Dem performance – part of the explanation why Labour has held up.
I had a look at the odds for every seat just before the election. The only one that stood out was Swansea West where the bookies seemed to be convinced the LDs would win. I thought that assessment was a mistake and so it proved. I put a bet on it, although only £5.