Bolsover
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10812 (24.58%)
Labour: 21994 (50%)
Liberal Democrat: 6821 (15.51%)
BNP: 2640 (6%)
UKIP: 1721 (3.91%)
Majority: 11182 (25.42%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 26046 (64.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7023 (17.5%)
Conservative: 7012 (17.5%)
Other: 70 (0.2%)
Majority: 19023 (47.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6702 (17.3%)
Labour: 25217 (65.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6780 (17.5%)
Majority: 18437 (47.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7472 (19.5%)
Labour: 26249 (68.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4550 (11.9%)
Majority: 18777 (49.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 7924 (16.7%)
Labour: 35073 (74%)
Liberal Democrat: 4417 (9.3%)
Majority: 27149 (57.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: A Derbyshire mining seat (though the pits closed well over a decade ago – Markham Colliery finally shut in 1993) probably best known for its current MP, Dennis Skinner. The seat itself is mostly made up of former mining villages like Blackwell, Creswell, Pinxton, South Normanton, Clowne and Scarcliffe. It is monolithically Labour, with the Conservatitves and Liberal Democrats rarely even bothering to put up candidates at local elections and many Labour councillor being returned unopposed. In 2007 there was only one Liberal Democrat candidate and no Conservatives – other than a few independents, the only non-Labour councillor in the borough is one Respect councillor.
With the mines gone, the largest employer is the East Midlands Designer Outlet off the M1 at South Normanton.
Current MP: Dennis Skinner(Labour) born 1932, Clay Cross. Educated at Tupton Grammar School and Rushkin College. A former coal miner. First elected as MP for Bolsover in 1970. A left winger, member of the socialist campaign group and regular rebel against the Labour whip. Skinner is an assiduous attender of House of Commons debates, where he normally sits on the front row of hte benches below the gangway. His heckling (particularly at the state opening of Parliament when Black Rod summons the Commons to hear the Queen`s speech – which Skinner, a republican, boycotts) has earned him the nickname “the beast of Bolsover” (more information at They work for you)
Lee Rowley (Conservative) Westminster councillor.Dennis Skinner(Labour) born 1932, Clay Cross. Educated at Tupton Grammar School and Rushkin College. A former coal miner. First elected as MP for Bolsover in 1970. A left winger, member of the socialist campaign group and regular rebel against the Labour whip. Skinner is an assiduous attender of House of Commons debates, where he normally sits on the front row of hte benches below the gangway. His heckling (particularly at the state opening of Parliament when Black Rod summons the Commons to hear the Queen`s speech – which Skinner, a republican, boycotts) has earned him the nickname “the beast of Bolsover” (more information at They work for you)
Denise Hawksworth (Liberal Democrat) born Liverpool. Office manager for Paul Holmes MP. Chesterfield councillor since 2003. Contested Bolsover 2005. 
Ray Calladine (UKIP) Martin Radford (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89895
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 22%
Over 60: 22.7%
Born outside UK: 1.6%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Christian: 78.2%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 10.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 41.1%
Owner-Occupied: 68.6%
Social Housing: 22.4% (Council: 19.9%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 6.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.6%
The demographic and electoral trends will steadily move Bolsover rightwards.
At a mid term election during a future Labour government the Conservatives will lead here.
I don’t believe Labour can lose this. It would be like saying that the Conservatives may one day lose Sleaford and North Hykeham. It is mathematically possible to see that 11.3% swing repeated in 2015, which would see Skinner hold with a majority of over 1.0%, but to think for one minute that Labour are going to lose what is a safe seat for them is strange.
I respectfully disagree. It will be a few decades but it will happen
I suppose it could happen, but it would need to see the Labour vote keep falling by a long way every general election even when Skinner has gone.
Well yes I agree it MIGHT happen one day. But I think we’re talking decades and decades.
The Tories haven’t even managed to pick up Derbyshire North East yet, and that one will go down first-although probably not next time.
Winning Derbyshire North East may be a decade or more away. Winning Bolsover is really really longterm-maybe another half a century. That is if the Conservative Party survives that long.
It seems to be the case that all these ex-mining seats are getting more and more Conservative for some reason. It must be down to an influx of professionals moving in to such areas.
Politically of course these sorts of ultra safe Labour seats were always deeply conservative even when they were not Conservative.
If the old tribal attitude can be smashed (my family have always voted Labour etc) then there is no reason why there shouldn’t be some good Tory pickings here in the distant future even without demographic changes.
Of course, this is the sort of area where the Cameronite brand of Toryism would go down like a lead balloon; and a sort of right wing, working class Toryism like you see in South Essex might fly.
If Labour have been in control of the council here since it was created in 1973 then does that mean that more Conservatives will become councillors in the next twenty years?
It is very common for ex-mining seats in England (certainly not in Scotland & Wales) to drift demographically towards the Conservatives as time goes on. It has happened big time in Forest of Dean & I reckon in Rother Valley, Don Valley, NE Derbyshire which Shaun has just mentioned, N Warwickshire and plenty more. However the drift has been of varying speed and in some seats such as this one, Hemsworth & St Helens N it has been barely been visible at all. As the mines go, lighter or service industries replace them; often the housing stock is of quite good quality, and the ex-mining villages become attractive to commuters to, for example, Sheffield. The drift as I say is very slow in Bolsover but I think faster in other Derbyshire ex-mining seats. Bassetlaw still I think has one mine left in production and is a rare example of a coalfield seat which has been better than the national average for Labour in the last 2 elections.
This one has swung reasonably quickly – not too slow at all, its just it started off as so ridiculously monolithic lab its hard to see. 16% swing since 1997 vs 9% nationally is quite a difference.
That’s true but it’s from such a low base – after all there are still no Tory councillors here, and only 4 non-Labour councillors of ay sort in total, so there’s a very long way to go.
I’ve just been on the website for Bolsover District Council and there are 5 non-Labour Councillors in the district. There are 2 independents, 2 ‘District Residents’ and 1 Green.
I’m confused. If the Conservatives currently have NO councillors at all in Bolsover then won’t they need some sort of representation before they begin challenging in some sort of way here? I’m presuming that when Skinner steps down this will become marginal.
I think you presume wrong. Skinner is very popular locally but I really don’t think that he has the sort of purely personal vote that, for example, Steve Pound has – voters who would never vote Labour if it were any other candidate. Labour is still totally dominant at local level in all but 4 or 5 seats (depending on whether the Bolsover Council website or Gwydir Demon is correct) and of course there is currently a large nationwide swing from Con to Lab. Even if the Tories outpoll Labour by a goodly margin in 2015, and Skinner retires, I think it would be a pretty small minority who would switch from Lab to Con in this seat.
Being honest, I would have thought so as well. The belief that this seat is demographically shifting the Conservatives’ way would mean it would take an awful long time if this was to be the case.
Agree the Tories would need some councillors to even make a serious challenge here.
It has happened before though – the Tories gained some New Town seats with very few councillors in 1979 – even from the elections of 1976
but that is very different territory and national circumstances to this
and they were swollen seats with Conservative areas included.
But contests may get closer here if the Tories can get themselves and the economy back to a strong position. (or if we GF had a disastrous Labour Government)
In the 1970′s, Labour lost safe seats in a few by-elections all to the Conservatives- Walsall North, Workington, Birmingham Stechford, and Ashfield. If there was to be a by-election here in the middle of an unpopular Labour government in the future, who knows what would happen.
Labour will poll 54-57% here in 2015 with any half decent candidate.
Most likely
lab 57
Con 27
LD 7.5
Others 8.5
What is the most tory area of this seat? Perhaps Hemmelig would know (secret in Norweigan I found out by a fluke)
Strangely, something on these lines was discussed before, on the North East Hampshire thread. Pete Whitehead knows all, and revealed that the last Conservative councillor in the seat was in South Normanton West, and have been competitive in that ward more recently.
“What is the most tory area of this seat?”
That will be the Stonebroom & Pilsley County Division in the far SW of the seat. The area is in NE Derbyshire rather than Bolsover District. However looking at the last Bolsover District elections (the first for some time where there were a decent number of Tory candidates) there were a number of decent Tory performances in many wards across this seat.
Stonebroom & Pilsley would almost certainly have been gained by Labour at the next county elections in May. However the division disappears in the boundary changes, with part of it going into a Wingerworth & Shirland division that should be safely Tory and the rest going into Clay Cross South which should be won by Labour.
So have all the county council divisions been changed?
If so do we have notional results of the 2009 elections?
Yes, there will be substantial changes to all the division boundaries. Details here:
http://www.lgbce.org.uk/all-reviews/east-midlands/derbyshire/derbyshire-electoral-review
Working out notional results will be difficult as a lot of the new divisions cut across district ward boundaries. I’ve only looked at the NE Derbyshire/Chesterfield/Bolsover corner of the county as yet, and rate the impact of the changes as pretty neutral.
Of those three districts NE Derbyshire loses a county council seat, it’s representation dropping from 9 to 8 seats. The other two stay the same.
Last time NE Derbyshire split 5 Lab, 4 Con. Labour would have almost certainly still won 5 on the new boundaries (the two Clay Cross divisions, the two member Eckington & Killamarsh division and Sutton).
The Tories would probably have won Dronfield East, Dronfield West & Walton and Wingerworth & Shirland; so one fewer on the new boundaries. However, as I maintained at the time, the Tories would probably have won the old Walton & West division in Chesterfield on a 2009 like performance. As that division is largely revived under the new boundaries that would have made up for the loss of one seat in NE Derbyshire.
Do you know which other counties will have boundary changes?
Pete
Buckinghamshire
Gloucestershire
Oxfordshire
Somerset
Staffordshire
Surrey
Northumberland
Durham
Cornwall
+
minor changes in
Cambridgeshire
Essex
Leicestershire
Shropshire
Thanks Andrea. Quite a lot then. Its getting to the time where I need to start looking at likely gains and losses so this could complicate matters in a number of places. In particular we had a fairly detailed discussion a while back about the kind of seats Labour would need to gain to win outright control in Staffordshire.