Comments on: Blyth Valley

By: Lewis F

Lewis F — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 22:03:20 +0000

The English Democrats have confirmed Allan White as their candidate in Blyth Valley, according to their list of candidates:

http://www.englishdemocrats.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=409&Itemid=143

By: c

Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:37:16 +0000

Frederic,
That’d be the book with 35 separate libels that nearly bankrupted Eddie Milne’s publishers would it?

LDs have a candidate – the leader of Northumberland council, who will go into the next election with responsibility for 1600 job cuts and huge local council tax increases hanging around his neck like an albatross. Ronnie C will survive this time, but it’s a race between the boundary commission abolishing the seat and the LibDems to see if a Labour candidate ever wins Blyth Valley again.

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Sat, 30 May 2009 11:14:00 +0000

Labour has a number of ex-coal mining seats which they are holding with majorities of about 25%, which is currently at about the limit of the Labour to Tory swing (yes, I know that here it’s the LibDem). There are others for instance in the East Midlands.

I have a suspicion that Labour may be in for a shock in at least some such seats. Time is taking its toll of the miners. Also, these seats, which often have some nice rural areas between the mining villages, are developing some pleasant communiting areas for whatever city is nearby (Newcastle) – see Joe James Broughton’s comment for this seat. The demographics trends are against Labour

And Labour’s murky history in this seat may not help them if voters are thinking about sleaze at the time of the next election.

The former Labour/Independent MP here, Eddie Milne, wrote a book called “No Shining Armour” about events in this constituency.

By: Matt

Matt — Sat, 30 May 2009 08:51:19 +0000

Interesting to see the Lib Dems do not have a candidate in place though

By: antony

antony — Sat, 30 May 2009 01:14:53 +0000

Blyth Valley has always been a weird political seat. Robens – Milne – Ryman – Campbell – its been like a circus. Campbell was chosen by majority one vote at the Labour selection meeting. Ryman had planned to stand as an Independent Labour candidate and had a large support with an upcooming split in the Labour party in Blyth Valley. |Campbell was figured to be the easiest Labour candidate to beat. He started his infamous selection speech with the sentance “The Irish have got a right to be in Ireland”. Oh what a fun meeting and speech that was.

The SDP candidate came within 90 votes of winning the seat but last minute campaigning fell apart on the day. The LibDems on the council a big group of 19, disintegrated due to a degree of personalities and infighting, reducing to 7 councillors and have to their credit, built up from there.

Due to the changing demographics of Cramlington and the influx of the new middle classes, Labour’s traditional hold has been sinking like the Titanic. Now with the Labour government being the most unpopular government ever, the MP’s rip off expenses outrages, Campbell is facing a cosniderable uphill battle I think. Remember, he has himself been exposed as having his nose in the Westminister trough – £80 for a steam iron and £150 for lampshades?? (among other things). Even though he has said he will repay this money, and even though he sits every week on the front bench next to Dennis Skinner so he can be seen by the TV cameras during PMQs, the damage has been done.

If the Libdems work their socks off, they can take this seat at the next general election. Campbell should in any event, go sooner or later.

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 18:47:20 +0000

The SDP should have taken their opportunity in 1987. It would have compensated them for losing another north-east seat, Stockton South, to the Tories. The Tory vote had risen by 10% in 1983 but then it fell 10% in 1987. Labour almost lost the seat despite a rise in their share of the vote of 3%.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 14:01:25 +0000

I think this is a safe seat – certainly when the chips are down.
I really suspect the underlying loyalty to Labour here is too subsantial a structure to shake.

By: STEPHEN BOTFIELD

STEPHEN BOTFIELD — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 13:51:40 +0000

“The history of this seat in the 1970s, for instance the deselection of Eddie Milne, was a dirty business. It did the Labour Party no credit.”
Mention should also be made that John Ryman was a controversial MP here (often mentioned in the press for all the wrong reasons) between Oct 1974 -1987.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 10:59:29 +0000

‘But if the LibDems continue to make the same advances as between 2001 and 2005 this seat is not beyond the possibility of a shock.’

I don’t see that

Unlike other seats where the Lib Dems have succesfully challenged Labour (Brisol West, Cambridge, Leeds North West) this seat has very few young and/or middle class voters

It’s a tough, gritty, industrial working class community – the tyupe ogf place where voting Labour is alnmost as ingrained as in the valleys of South Wales

The Lib Dems might be able to push for 35% of the vote but with virtually no Tory vote to squeeze I think realisticaly that has to be the extent of their ambitions

By: Galloglass

Galloglass — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 10:12:49 +0000

The only way I can see us taking this seat would be if Labour have a real meltdown at next years GE.

The Tory vote can’t really be squeezed much more than 2-3% and of course having no candidate so near the election hurts us more than other parties.

Our best chance was 1987 and short of the aforesaid meltdown or a remarkably able candidate this will not be one of the score or so of seats we’ll take off Labour.