Blyth Valley
2010 Results:
Conservative: 6412 (16.63%)
Labour: 17156 (44.48%)
Liberal Democrat: 10488 (27.19%)
BNP: 1699 (4.41%)
UKIP: 1665 (4.32%)
English Democrat: 327 (0.85%)
Independent: 819 (2.12%)
Majority: 6668 (17.29%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 19659 (55%)
Liberal Democrat: 11132 (31.1%)
Conservative: 4982 (13.9%)
Other: 0 (0%)
Majority: 8527 (23.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 5484 (15.9%)
Labour: 20627 (59.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 8439 (24.4%)
Majority: 12188 (35.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5666 (13.3%)
Labour: 27276 (64.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 9540 (22.5%)
Majority: 17736 (41.7%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Ronnie Campbell(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Barry Flux (Conservative) Ronnie Campbell(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Jeffrey Reid (Liberal Democrat) James Condon (UKIP)Steve Fairbairn (BNP) Allan White (English Democrat)Barry Elliott (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81265
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 19.4%
Born outside UK: 1.8%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.5%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 11.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33%
Owner-Occupied: 66.8%
Social Housing: 26.7% (Council: 21.6%, Housing Ass.: 5.1%)
Privately Rented: 4.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 1.7%
The SDP nearly won this seat in 1987. A hard nut to crack for the LibDems, but the potential is there.
Labour held the council comfortably in 2006 with minimal losses – despite the heavy defeats elsehwere. Flirted with the SDP in the mid 1980s but this seat has now reverted to type. Should be a comfortable Labour hold next time – maybe even with an increased majority
I am pretty sure Cramlington is in this seat, and the Tories made some inroads there in the 2005 County Council elections (same day as General Election), which is covered by Castle Morpeth council.
This is somewhat ironic, because the Tories need to see off Lib Dem inroads in affluent Ponteland/Darras Hall on the Newcastle fringes (also in Castle Morpeth, but outside this seat, in Hexham).
There was an Independent (Labour) MP here in the early 1970s, who still had a large vote in 1979, although it was official Labour held then. The Tory candidate in 1979 was Emma Nicholson.
As has been rightly described, the SDP threat in the 1980s was seen off. There seem to have been some swings back and forth between Labour and Lib Dem, but nothing to seriously worry Labour.
Ronnie Campbell was involved in a furious row in a curry restaurant in the seat some years ago, but I don’t know any details, and it sounded as though it may have been started by another man.
Cramlington is in Blyth Valley borough which is identical to this constituency
The Cramlington wards elected 7 Lab 6 LibDem 2 Con and 2 Ind councillors with 1 each LibDem and Ind gain from Lab .
Aggregate votes in May locals were :-
Lab 10777 LibDem 9181 Con 4333 Others 1970
The Tories polled quite strongly in this seat in 1983 – but were still some distance behind Labour. Their vote has declined markedly since. If this seat ever becomes marginal again it will be a straight Lab-Lib Dem fight. For now, it should be safely Labour unless they become very unpopular nationally
Yes, the Tories were pushed into third place in 1987 though. They could increase their vote if the seat is no longer seen as marginal.
Talking of appalling tempers, I don’t think Ronnie Campbell was having a row with David Weeks, former deputy to Shirley Porter in Westminster, unless he used to pop up to Blyth Valley for a curry, or Quentin Davies.
Cramlington contains a lot of new housing.
I’d be amazed if the Liberal Democrats considered this a target seat seriously.
The LibDems are going to win all 650 seats next time, Joe – haven’t you been reading their comments on here?
This is an example of a once interesting seat that looks much less so now. The LDs can try & target this if they want – but they’ll not win it.
I’m quite happy for them to waste time here if they want to.
This seat (and Blyth before the 1983 boundary changes) had a chequered history before the SDP miss in 1987.
The MP Eddie Milne was deselected by the Labour Party and was then briefly elected as an Independent Labour candidate in 1974. Then there was John Ryman who also became an Independent in 1986, retired in 1987 and was subsequently jailed for fraud. Hence the near miss of the SDP I suppose.
has anyone ever compiled a list of MP’s convicted of a crime? Eddie Milne was rather unhappy about T Dan Smith the Newcastle Labour councillor onvicted of taking bribes from the architect John Poulson. Andrew Cunningham of the GMB ( father of the Labour MP Jack Cunningham )was also involved .
Labour are looking a bit shaky here – surprised the Lib Dems didn’t do any crowing!
LD: 9350 (39%)
Lab: 8272 (35%)
Con: 3909 (16%)
Ind: 2258 (10%)
Labour had a bad night throughout the north-east.
I wonder if Northern Rock had an extra effect.
The Conservatives have selected Barry Flux here.
I think we all owe Matt some thanks on giving us all these candidate updates, including for other parties!
Thanks VoteDave – its my pleasure. I think this is a brilliant site, and want to do my bit to ensure it is as up to date as possible.
Hehe, you keep beating me to it Matt, but good on you, really useful
LOL, youve beaten me a few times as well Doktorb!
Very surprised to see a LD gain predicted here earlier this year. I would still stick to my original comment that the LDs would be wasting their time working too hard in Blyth Valley. Local election losses there may have been but I think that will be as far as it goes. Lab hold I am sure.
I can’t see the Lib Dems getting within 15% of Labour – maybe something like;
Labour 19000
Lib Dem 12000
Cons 6000
Others 1500
A name I’ve heard whispered as linked to this seat should Ronnie Campbell stand down is Jonathan Ashworth. He is a special advisor to Gordon Brown and would come with a lot of clout when a Labour vacancy is announced.
He features in this write up on Brown’s kitchen cabinet Jonathan Ashworth and would be take a lot of beating.
Jonathan Ashworth
* Special adviser to Chief Secretary to the Treasury Nicknamed Sparkle, Mr Ashworth has worked for last three Chief Secretaries. Responsible for managing Mr Brown’s links to the party and union apparatus, he is a former Labour Party economic policy officer.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1543550/Browns-kitchen-cabinet-costs-1m-a-year.html
Rob, this plan could be scuppered by three words – All Women Shortlist!
The history of this seat in the 1970s, for instance the deselection of Eddie Milne, was a dirty business. It did the Labour Party no credit.
Matt is quite right to comment on the possibility of an all-women shortlist. This provision in the Labour Party is all too easily used to manipulate candidate selection, which does no good for the cause of fairness and equality. But from the biographical details we’ve been given it does not seem likely that that party managers would wish to stop Jonathan Ashworth.
There is not much Tory vote for the LibDems to draw on, But if the LibDems continue to make the same advances as between 2001 and 2005 this seat is not beyond the possibility of a shock.
It is surprising, given the result last time, that this site does not yet list a LibDem prospective candidate..
“There is not much Tory vote for the LibDems to draw on, But if the LibDems continue to make the same advances as between 2001 and 2005 this seat is not beyond the possibility of a shock.
It is surprising, given the result last time, that this site does not yet list a LibDem prospective candidate..”
The LibDems have squeezed the Conservative vote in Chesterfield down to 8%, they should be looking to do the same here.
It is actually to the Conservative strategic advantage for their natural supporters here to vote tactically LibDem. By making this constituency more marginal they ensure that both Labour and the LibDems use more resources in fighting one another and perhaps also damage relations between them.
It is surprising though that the LibDems have yet to select a candidate and it is ths sort of constituency which might produce the sort of shock gain that the LibDems sometimes make.
The only way I can see us taking this seat would be if Labour have a real meltdown at next years GE.
The Tory vote can’t really be squeezed much more than 2-3% and of course having no candidate so near the election hurts us more than other parties.
Our best chance was 1987 and short of the aforesaid meltdown or a remarkably able candidate this will not be one of the score or so of seats we’ll take off Labour.
‘But if the LibDems continue to make the same advances as between 2001 and 2005 this seat is not beyond the possibility of a shock.’
I don’t see that
Unlike other seats where the Lib Dems have succesfully challenged Labour (Brisol West, Cambridge, Leeds North West) this seat has very few young and/or middle class voters
It’s a tough, gritty, industrial working class community – the tyupe ogf place where voting Labour is alnmost as ingrained as in the valleys of South Wales
The Lib Dems might be able to push for 35% of the vote but with virtually no Tory vote to squeeze I think realisticaly that has to be the extent of their ambitions
“The history of this seat in the 1970s, for instance the deselection of Eddie Milne, was a dirty business. It did the Labour Party no credit.”
Mention should also be made that John Ryman was a controversial MP here (often mentioned in the press for all the wrong reasons) between Oct 1974 -1987.
I think this is a safe seat – certainly when the chips are down.
I really suspect the underlying loyalty to Labour here is too subsantial a structure to shake.
The SDP should have taken their opportunity in 1987. It would have compensated them for losing another north-east seat, Stockton South, to the Tories. The Tory vote had risen by 10% in 1983 but then it fell 10% in 1987. Labour almost lost the seat despite a rise in their share of the vote of 3%.
Blyth Valley has always been a weird political seat. Robens – Milne – Ryman – Campbell – its been like a circus. Campbell was chosen by majority one vote at the Labour selection meeting. Ryman had planned to stand as an Independent Labour candidate and had a large support with an upcooming split in the Labour party in Blyth Valley. |Campbell was figured to be the easiest Labour candidate to beat. He started his infamous selection speech with the sentance “The Irish have got a right to be in Ireland”. Oh what a fun meeting and speech that was.
The SDP candidate came within 90 votes of winning the seat but last minute campaigning fell apart on the day. The LibDems on the council a big group of 19, disintegrated due to a degree of personalities and infighting, reducing to 7 councillors and have to their credit, built up from there.
Due to the changing demographics of Cramlington and the influx of the new middle classes, Labour’s traditional hold has been sinking like the Titanic. Now with the Labour government being the most unpopular government ever, the MP’s rip off expenses outrages, Campbell is facing a cosniderable uphill battle I think. Remember, he has himself been exposed as having his nose in the Westminister trough – £80 for a steam iron and £150 for lampshades?? (among other things). Even though he has said he will repay this money, and even though he sits every week on the front bench next to Dennis Skinner so he can be seen by the TV cameras during PMQs, the damage has been done.
If the Libdems work their socks off, they can take this seat at the next general election. Campbell should in any event, go sooner or later.
Interesting to see the Lib Dems do not have a candidate in place though
Labour has a number of ex-coal mining seats which they are holding with majorities of about 25%, which is currently at about the limit of the Labour to Tory swing (yes, I know that here it’s the LibDem). There are others for instance in the East Midlands.
I have a suspicion that Labour may be in for a shock in at least some such seats. Time is taking its toll of the miners. Also, these seats, which often have some nice rural areas between the mining villages, are developing some pleasant communiting areas for whatever city is nearby (Newcastle) – see Joe James Broughton’s comment for this seat. The demographics trends are against Labour
And Labour’s murky history in this seat may not help them if voters are thinking about sleaze at the time of the next election.
The former Labour/Independent MP here, Eddie Milne, wrote a book called “No Shining Armour” about events in this constituency.
Frederic,
That’d be the book with 35 separate libels that nearly bankrupted Eddie Milne’s publishers would it?
LDs have a candidate – the leader of Northumberland council, who will go into the next election with responsibility for 1600 job cuts and huge local council tax increases hanging around his neck like an albatross. Ronnie C will survive this time, but it’s a race between the boundary commission abolishing the seat and the LibDems to see if a Labour candidate ever wins Blyth Valley again.
The English Democrats have confirmed Allan White as their candidate in Blyth Valley, according to their list of candidates:
http://www.englishdemocrats.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=409&Itemid=143
Lab Hold= 5,000 maj
Lab hold maj 4000
Lab Hold
Maj 5200
Steve Fairbairn standing for BNP
Lab maj 5,000
It’s time for a change………Steve Fairbairn and the BNP within Blyth Valley is the only option to generate change in our county. This is time when our country is dangerously threatened. Immigration is top of our list of political challenges and the BNP are the only party who have a robust strategy to deal with our crowded and unstable country…..Please vote BNP…..Thank you.
@John Pye
Immigration is not the biggest threat to this country. The huge national deficit leading to massive job cuts and major tax rises is.
The North East as a whole needs nothing new. Labour has created thousands of jobs in the public sector, to make up for the thousands the Conservative Party got rid of the last time they were in.
Mr. Campbell has a majority of almost 24%, and his core vote are those that knew (and sometimes worked with) him in the pits. More than enough of these Labour voters – who will never change allegiance – remain available to vote in Blyth Valley and thus, Ronnie will not be losing his seat anytime soon.
LAB HOLD
This MP is a total joke. I feel sorry for the labour voter in Blyth Valley to have a choice between a fool and a political party they morally disagree with,
How is Ronnie Campbell a joke? To my mind he is one of the more principled Labour MPs. Kindly explain rather than make a sweeping generalisation.