Blyth Valley
2005 Results:
Labour: 19659 (55%)
Liberal Democrat: 11132 (31.1%)
Conservative: 4982 (13.9%)
Other: 0 (0%)
Majority: 8527 (23.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 5484 (15.9%)
Labour: 20627 (59.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 8439 (24.4%)
Majority: 12188 (35.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5666 (13.3%)
Labour: 27276 (64.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 9540 (22.5%)
Majority: 17736 (41.7%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Ronnie Campbell(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Barry Flux (Conservative) Ronnie Campbell(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Jeffrey Reid (Liberal Democrat) Allan White (English Democrat)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81265
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 19.4%
Born outside UK: 1.8%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.5%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 11.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33%
Owner-Occupied: 66.8%
Social Housing: 26.7% (Council: 21.6%, Housing Ass.: 5.1%)
Privately Rented: 4.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 1.7%
The SDP should have taken their opportunity in 1987. It would have compensated them for losing another north-east seat, Stockton South, to the Tories. The Tory vote had risen by 10% in 1983 but then it fell 10% in 1987. Labour almost lost the seat despite a rise in their share of the vote of 3%.
Blyth Valley has always been a weird political seat. Robens – Milne – Ryman – Campbell – its been like a circus. Campbell was chosen by majority one vote at the Labour selection meeting. Ryman had planned to stand as an Independent Labour candidate and had a large support with an upcooming split in the Labour party in Blyth Valley. |Campbell was figured to be the easiest Labour candidate to beat. He started his infamous selection speech with the sentance “The Irish have got a right to be in Ireland”. Oh what a fun meeting and speech that was.
The SDP candidate came within 90 votes of winning the seat but last minute campaigning fell apart on the day. The LibDems on the council a big group of 19, disintegrated due to a degree of personalities and infighting, reducing to 7 councillors and have to their credit, built up from there.
Due to the changing demographics of Cramlington and the influx of the new middle classes, Labour’s traditional hold has been sinking like the Titanic. Now with the Labour government being the most unpopular government ever, the MP’s rip off expenses outrages, Campbell is facing a cosniderable uphill battle I think. Remember, he has himself been exposed as having his nose in the Westminister trough – £80 for a steam iron and £150 for lampshades?? (among other things). Even though he has said he will repay this money, and even though he sits every week on the front bench next to Dennis Skinner so he can be seen by the TV cameras during PMQs, the damage has been done.
If the Libdems work their socks off, they can take this seat at the next general election. Campbell should in any event, go sooner or later.
Interesting to see the Lib Dems do not have a candidate in place though
Labour has a number of ex-coal mining seats which they are holding with majorities of about 25%, which is currently at about the limit of the Labour to Tory swing (yes, I know that here it’s the LibDem). There are others for instance in the East Midlands.
I have a suspicion that Labour may be in for a shock in at least some such seats. Time is taking its toll of the miners. Also, these seats, which often have some nice rural areas between the mining villages, are developing some pleasant communiting areas for whatever city is nearby (Newcastle) – see Joe James Broughton’s comment for this seat. The demographics trends are against Labour
And Labour’s murky history in this seat may not help them if voters are thinking about sleaze at the time of the next election.
The former Labour/Independent MP here, Eddie Milne, wrote a book called “No Shining Armour” about events in this constituency.
Frederic,
That’d be the book with 35 separate libels that nearly bankrupted Eddie Milne’s publishers would it?
LDs have a candidate – the leader of Northumberland council, who will go into the next election with responsibility for 1600 job cuts and huge local council tax increases hanging around his neck like an albatross. Ronnie C will survive this time, but it’s a race between the boundary commission abolishing the seat and the LibDems to see if a Labour candidate ever wins Blyth Valley again.
The English Democrats have confirmed Allan White as their candidate in Blyth Valley, according to their list of candidates:
http://www.englishdemocrats.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=409&Itemid=143