Blaydon
2010 Results:
Conservative: 7159 (15.94%)
Labour: 22297 (49.64%)
Liberal Democrat: 13180 (29.35%)
BNP: 2277 (5.07%)
Majority: 9117 (20.29%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21516 (51.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 15883 (37.9%)
Conservative: 3360 (8%)
Other: 1133 (2.7%)
Majority: 5632 (13.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 3129 (8%)
Labour: 20120 (51.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 14785 (37.9%)
UKIP: 1019 (2.6%)
Majority: 5335 (13.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 4215 (11.4%)
Labour: 20340 (54.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 12531 (33.8%)
Majority: 7809 (21.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6048 (13.2%)
Labour: 27535 (60%)
Liberal Democrat: 10930 (23.8%)
Other: 1412 (3.1%)
Majority: 16605 (36.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: David Anderson(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Glenn Hall (Conservative) David Anderson(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Neil Bradbury (Liberal Democrat) Keith McFarlane (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 85997
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 21%
Over 60: 23.7%
Born outside UK: 1.6%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 82.7%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 14.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34%
Owner-Occupied: 68.8%
Social Housing: 26.3% (Council: 23.4%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 3.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 2.6%
I think the Labour vote will fall to around 44% in this seat.
However for precisely the same reasons as Barnaby, I predict a Labour hold.
It appears that this seat may be one of a very small number of three way fights: most seats already have at least four announced candidates.
Given the comparatively small majority, there is still remarkably little interest on this site about Blaydon. For instance, the LibDems could easily get past the post if Clegg’s performance in the TV debate swings generallt apathetic voters to his party.
I’d say this one is too close to call – the Labour MP only got elected last time and has made little impact – although it has been widely publised he hasn’t yet moved into the constituency!
Tories have been non-existent in this seat for years. Lost their last council seat in 1989?
LD candidate is young, and certainly alot more energetic than the last one!
I agree with Fredrick – the outcome will be down to how well the party does nationally
Thanks, Northern Lass. Somebody informed about this seat at last!
Given the voting last time, I continue to be surprised that this consitutency is not being paid more attention.
It sounds as though the locals here would help themsleves if they were stroppier politically. I suspect that apathy has suited Labour, possibly at the expense of local prosperity.
The Conservatives lost their last council seat in this constituency in 1988 and, as Northern Lass points out, have been invisible ever since.
There are 30 council seats in the constituency:
18 Liberal Democrat
11 Labour
1 Liberal
The Liberal Democrats have been outpolling Labour in the constituency in the council elections for a number of years.
Northern las, informed about the seat, how funny. Dave Anderson has lived in the constituency for years?? He has also been a hardworking and respected local MP.
Christopher Ord (the local councillor i presume) doesn’t even know how many councillors the Lib Dems have, did you not notice the defection Chris?
Hannah.
Thank you very much indeed for those comments. We have indeed had a defection on Gateshead Council. However, what was the defector elected as? Yes Hannah, that is correct – elected as a Liberal Democrat in 2006 and there can be no argument on that. Therefore, in terms of council seats per party officially and democratically elected at elections, the information I gave is correct.
whilst it is correct that the Lib Dems out poll Labour it is worth mentioning that the Lib Dems out polled Labour before the last GE and still failed to win this seat with a new Labour candidate. Dave Anderson is a huge improvenment on the last MP who took this seat for granted. Labour will hold this seat with about 4500-5000 majority.
Lab Hold= 2,000 maj
I was in Newcastle on Friday and was talking with a Labour candidate and she says that they are confident of holding all the current seats. Balydon Labour are confident of holding the seat with 4-6ooo majority. Not sure I can se the majority that big but only a few weeks to see!
Labour 18000
Liberal Democrat 13000
Conservative 4000
Other 2000
Falkirkbairn01. See my previous post. According to Anthony’s information this may be one of very few seats with no Other candidate, just the three “major” parties.
So Others are not likely to get 2,000 votes!
If anybody does know of an Independent or minor party intending to stand here, please tell us!
A constituency with only the three main parties standing? In this day and age!
Could Blaydon be the only seat in England with this distinction?
Doktorb, congratulations! I went to check Derbyshire South but you had got there first!
Of course, every seat in Scotland and Wales will have at least four candidates (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Nationalist). I haven’t checked the Northern Ireland seats, but I would be surprised if any of them have less than four candidates (e.g. DUP, UUP, SDLP. Sinn Fein, and Alliance).
Lab hold maj 600
Lab Hold
Maj 4200
Just heard the BNP have requested a nominationn pack for this constiuency and the BBC is reporting Kdeith McFarlane is stading for them. Does this affect anything? Discuss?
Kevin McFarlane standing here for BNP
Lab maj 2,000
BNP candidate is Keith McFarlane not Kevin according to BNP candidates site.
Parochial maybe but the big drop in Labour’s majority at the last election was partially responsible to Dave Anderson being a mackem – and a broad one at that if you hear him speak.
Many locals would rather see ANYONE other than a Sunderland man imposed on them as MP.
A marginal Labour hold but majority under 1,000.
Going to be very close in Blaydon. Up until recently it was all lib dems and it looked as if Labour had given up. In the past few days we’ve seen D Miliband up here talking to a lib dem defector to labour, while Dave Anderson has FINALLY posted a new leaflet. Lib Dems had MEP Fiona Hall campaigning in Blaydon a few days ago, and they seem to have a strong presence in the streets.
BTW Colin I don’t really think Dave Anderson being a mackem was an issue last time round.
Another close result but I’m minded to take a LD gain with a majority in 3 figures
Lib Dem Gain
Maj 1676
Liberal win here………….despite campaigning by Labour.
LD GAIN by a whisker
I agree. I’m going for a LD majority of 1,000 (against a Labour majority of 2,000 on my previous prediction)
Pete you & I are united in wrongness.
The Angel of the North is in this constituency, not in Gateshead
Can anyone shed any light on why the Conservative vote more than doubled here?
Big recovery in the Tory vote,
and Labour holding firm.
Matt, it rose quite a lot thoughout this sub region – except in the seat the Tories needed to gain.
The ‘Angel of the North’ is in Lamesley ward in Blaydon constituency. There is often confusion about it because some think it is in Gateshead constituency, when in fact it isn’t.
Interesting const. Am i right in thinking Rowland’s Gill , whickham are middle class whereas Birtley is more working class?
2012 Local Election results for Blaydon with change on 2011
Lab 60.6% (+2.8%)
LD 30.5% (+0.9%)
Con 7.1% (-3.4%)
Oth 1.9% (-0.3%)
The 10 wards split 7 Labour, 3 Lib Dem
The 3 wards that are currently in this constituency and proposed to go to the new Hexham, (approx 20,500 electors) – split even more favourably for Labour, giving them 68% to the Lib Dems 24% and 11% for the Conservatives, demonstrating that if the boundary changes go through, the dynamics of the battle in Hexham really could be much more interesting.
Its fair to say that the anti-Labour vote will be more inclined to vote tory if put into a tory consitutancy than in Gateshead council.
2010 result in hexham was very poor for the tories. Its almost certianly due to the loss of personal vote. The tories will recover that next time round with the new MP very well thought of.
Whickham is lower middle class. Rowlands Gill working class and Birtley is just shockingly awful.
I’m not so sure that the vote will easily be regained in Hexham. Certainly it is a seat that seems destined to be Labour at some point in the not too distant future.
I very much doubt it unless its a catastrophic election for the tories.
Not sure that Shaun wasn’t referring to Hexham as proposed by the Boundary Commission, rather than how it’s drawn today. As it’s drawn today I’d have to agree with you Joe.