Blaenau Gwent
2010 Results:
Conservative: 2265 (6.99%)
Labour: 16974 (52.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 3285 (10.14%)
Plaid Cymru: 1333 (4.11%)
BNP: 1211 (3.74%)
UKIP: 488 (1.51%)
Socialist Labour: 381 (1.18%)
Others: 6458 (19.94%)
Majority: 10516 (42.26%)
2005 Results:
Independent: 20505 (58.2%)
Labour: 11384 (32.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 1511 (4.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 843 (2.4%)
Conservative: 816 (2.3%)
Other: 20697 (58.7%)
Majority: 9313 (26.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 2383 (7.5%)
Labour: 22855 (72%)
Liberal Democrat: 2945 (9.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 3542 (11.2%)
Majority: 19313 (60.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 2607 (6.6%)
Labour: 31493 (79.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3458 (8.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 2072 (5.2%)
Majority: 28035 (70.7%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: Traditionally a solid, south wales mining seat, seeped in Labour tradition. It is the successor seat to Ebbw Vale, represented by Nye Bevan and Michael Foot, and until recently was assumed to be amongst the most solid Labour seats in the country, with opposition parties normally struggling to get over 10% of the vote. The main towns are Abertilley, Brynmawr, Ebbw Vale, Tredegar. The coal mines are now long gone and in 2002 the Corus steel plant here closed, causing further economic hardship.
In 2005 it was, in what must count as one of the most surprising results of the election, won by Peter Law, standing as an independent candidate. Law was the Labour member of the Welsh assembly for the seat and an ally of Llew Smith, the left-wing Labour MP who stood down at the 2005 election. Llew Smith`s replacement, Maggie Jones, who was selected from an all-woman shortlist – something which Smith believed was used to block the selection of a non-Blairite male candidate. Law ran despite suffering from a brain tumour and died less than a year after his election. His agent Dai Davies successfully defended the seat in the ensuing by-election, with his widow Trish Law managing to hold his seat in the Welsh election.
Current MP: Nick Smith (Labour) Former Labour party official and NSPCC Campaigns manager. Former Camden councillor.
Liz Stevenson (Conservative)Nick Smith (Labour) Former Labour party official and NSPCC Campaigns manager. Former Camden councillor.
Matt Smith (Liberal Democrat) Student.Rhodri Davies (Plaid Cymru)Michael Kocan (UKIP) Anthony King (BNP)Alyson O`Connell (Socialist Labour) Dai Davies (Peoples Voice)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 70064
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 24%
Over 60: 22.2%
Born outside UK: 1.1%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 64.2%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 9.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 45%
Owner-Occupied: 62.6%
Social Housing: 28.9% (Council: 24.3%, Housing Ass.: 4.5%)
Privately Rented: 6.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 2.7%
2006 By-election
The Blaneau Gwent by-election was held on the 29th June following the death of independent MP Peter Law. It was successfully held by his agent at the general election, Dai Davies.
By-election result
Dai Davies (Independent) 12543 (46.2%)
Owen Smith (Labour) 10059 (37.0%)
Steffan Lewis (Plaid Cymru) 1755 (6.5%)
Amy Kitcher (Liberal Democrat) 1477 (5.4%)
Margrit Williams (Conservative) 1013 (3.7%)
Alan Hope (Loony) 318 (1.2%)
Majority 2484 (9.2%)
By-election candidates:
Dai Davies (Independent) born 1959, Blaenau Gwent. Former electrician at Corus steel works and shop steward. Leader of the Blaenau Gwent People`s Voice Group, the party set up by supporters of Peter Law. Agent for Peter Law in the 2005 general election.
Alan Hope (Offical Monster Raving Loony) born Mytchett. Publican. Leader of the Monster Raving Loony Party since 1999. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury by-election 1999, Kensington and Chelsea by-election 1999, Brent East by-election 2003, Hartlepool by-election 2004, Aldershot 2005.
Amy Kitcher (Liberal Democrat) born 1981, Merthyr. Educated at Vaynor and Penyderyn High School and Aston University. Assistant to Mike German AM.
Steffan Lewis (Plaid Cymru) born 1985. Educated at Ysgol Gyfun Gwynllyw and Cardiff University. Student.
Owen Smith (Labour) born 1970. Former journalist. Head of government relations for Pfizer. Former Special advisor to Paul Murphy.
Margrit Williams (Conservative) born 1964. Educated at Southend High School for Girls and London Guildhall University. Researcher for Sir Malcolm Rifkind. Wandsworth councillor 1990-1994. Contested Blaenau Gwent 1997, 2005.
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So, what on earth happened here? Dai didn’t just lose, he was walloped!
my word
In the end, people were voting for a Government. in 2005 Labour never looked likely to lose & people here protested. Looks like working class Welsh voters have fallen in behind Labour once more
Looks like the BNP vote didn’t hurt the Labour vote at all Mr Hepworth. Good win.
The thing to remember is that in seats like this there is always hostility towards the Tories ie ‘Return to Thatcher’ and thus a huge swing to Labour is needed/expected as a protest vote to the Tories. The same could be said of Bethnal Green & Bow where voters are simply ‘coming back to Labour’.
50 years today since the death of Nye Bevan. Long live Nye
er.. wouldn’t that be long-dead Nye then?
Long live the MEMORY of Nye perhaps we can agree on. In fact he was more often spelt “Ni” by his wife & friends.
When is the fiftieth anniversary of the 1960 by-election won by Michael Foot?
17th November.
“Long live the MEMORY of Nye perhaps we can agree on”
No I don’t think so
At least now Brown and Blair are out of power Nye can rest a little more peacefully and refrain from spinning so much.
I would have thought Bevan would have preferred Brown to any of his likely replacements, especially the Milibands.
And unlike many on the Labour left, Bevan did not prefer being idealogically pure in opposition to the constraints of being in government. He made huge practical compromises to realise his goal of creating the NHS (not least “stuffing the doctors’ pockets with gold”).
Despite the differences in ideology, I think Bevan would have admired Blair for some of his undoubted achievements, not least facilitating 3 landslide election victories for the party.
What I think is so ridiculous about the Labour party presently is how they are all so busy repudiating some of their key policies – especially on immigration. It looks so insincere and opportunist, as Diane Abbott has pointed out to her credit, and is a tactical error the party will take a long time to recover from.
I thought Labour would regain this,
despite minimal knowledge,
because it surely must have been one of those seats where in 2001/2005 people who were basically Labour wandering off to non voting, LDs, and occasionally other candidates, such as here.
I was a little surprised by the scale of it though.
A big defeat for the Independent.
With very few exceptions, independents are single-issue one-trick ponies, whose support dribbles away once the key issue they fought on fades away.
Dr Taylor in Wyre Forest didn’t lose so badly, but he lost all the same.
Galloglass – Nye would have had problems with Blairism & the New Labour project, but this government would have caused him more agitation in his resting place that the previous one.
The way he treated the ‘Peoples Voice’ over here it is no wonder he lost.
Not a lot of help from ‘Starling’ in fact Dai lost a lot of votes due to his involvement.
Lab hold Tredegar West and Central by-election with a big swing. This is coupled with the good by-election win in the Blackwood ward in Islwyn. The valleys are coming back to Labour.
Trish Law won’t stand next year
Interesting Andrea – is that official?
DEWI
yes
ht tp://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/welsh-politics/welsh-politics-news/2010/09/20/trish-law-to-stand-down-as-am-91466-27301502/
Blaenau Gwent 2011
Lab 68%
PC 9%
LD 8%
Con 5%
There’s a rather quaintly named ward in this seat: “Six Bells”. It only has a small electorate of 1,878.
Welsh Assembly 2011: Lab Gain
I predict Cons to take this at the next GE on a 30% swing from Labour.
A strange time to get in from the pub
but I admire your optimism.
Cheers
btw, Gloy Plopwell added me as a FB friend.