Comments on: Blackpool South

By: Harry Porter

Harry Porter — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 21:32:28 +0000

The Tower (which opened in 1894) and the Winter Gardens (which opened in 1878) have been in

Lancashire North 1832-85 (two-seat constituency)
Blackpool 1885-1945
Blackpool North 1945-97
Blackpool South 1997-present.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 22:15:02 +0000

at most extreme it is the logic that would say Belfast North would be a SF seat because its gaining parts of Belfast West (despite the fact it is gaining ultra-strong Unionist areas from that seat). Another somwhat extreme example is Paddington which is Conservative on the Guardian analysis as it gains a chunk of Kensington – yet the area gained is the safe Labour far north of that seat. Not all of their notionals will be as skewed as some of these, but when a methodolgy is as flawed as that its basically a waste of time using it anywhere.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 17:33:30 +0000

Yes…the Guardian logic would have meant that the revised Edinburgh Central would have been a notional Tory marginal in 1997 given it was gaining tow wards from the Conservative seat of Edinburgh West and losing two wards to Leith.

In actual fact it was gaining two Labour wards in Edinburgh West (Stenhouse and Moat) and losing two Tory inclined wards (New Town and Stockbridge).

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 23:24:43 +0000

“While many of the Guardians projections are questionable”

None of the Guardian projections are ‘questionable’. They are all by definition completely meaningless and irrelevent. It is better to have no projections than to have ones calculated in the way that they have done. It may that by accident one or two of their projections may come close to the truth. That will happen in a few cases where an area moving into a constituency has voted along exactly the same lines as the constituency it is moving from

By: Dalek

Dalek — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 23:08:26 +0000

just as Blackpool North & Fleetwood will be a seat Labour need to form even a government.

should read

just as Blackpool North & Fleetwood will be a seat Labour need to form even a minority government.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 23:05:21 +0000

The Guardian projects that Labours majority here is reduced from 1851 to 1351 (much more in real terms given a larger electorate).

While many of the Guardians projections are questionable I would feel that Warbreck (a safe Tory ward on the North Shore) would out vote Layton (a Labour marginal gained in May) by around 500 votes so this notional result appears consistent.

2 key marginals in Blackpool in 2015.

Blackpool South would therefore be one of the seats that the Conservatives would seek to win in order to win with a working overall majority – just as Blackpool North & Fleetwood will be a seat Labour need to form even a government.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 22:57:45 +0000

Blackpool South is extending to include Clairemont, Layton and Warbreck not Layton and Park (which it had between 1997 – 2010).

Politically it will not make a huge difference by geographically South will now extend halfway up the North Shore.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Sat, 06 Aug 2011 11:57:57 +0000

What is interesting about the two Blackpool constituencies is that in North the coastal part is traditional more Tory than the inland areas.

The case is opposite with Blackpool South with a greater concentration of Labour support on the coast and Tory support inland.

While its true to say that the North Shore is more upmarket than the Golden Mile, the area round Blackpool Zoo is much more Conservative than the Grange council estate in Blackpool North.

Waterloo and Squires Gate are coastal but heavily outvoted by the wards in Blackpool South than are further North.

I also think that there may now be a large middle class public sector vote living in wards like Bispham and Stanley (who work in Blackpool and as far a field as Preston), that make these areas better now for Labour.

Where Brighton became established as London by the sea, to what extend has Blackpool also become Manchester by the sea?

Its interesting that Gordon Marsden lives in Brighton and commutes to the Commons. He was regarded as an Expenses Saint with his humbel constituency home being the flat above the Blackpool South Labour Party office.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 20:46:42 +0000

The logic of including Fleetwood with Blackpool instead of Lytham & St Anns for Westminster purposes was that the trams go to Fleetwood while the stop at Star Gate just beyond The Pleasure Beach.

Have there ever been any plans to extend the trams to Lytham & St Anns or even further?

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 22:06:56 +0000

I think it would possibly make the most sense to recreate Blackpool N and Fleetwood and maybe rejig Blackpool South a bit. It might only need to take in St Leonards and/or Kilnhouse wards from Fylde district to add up.