Blackpool South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12597 (35.8%)
Labour: 14448 (41.06%)
Liberal Democrat: 5082 (14.44%)
BNP: 1482 (4.21%)
UKIP: 1352 (3.84%)
Others: 230 (0.65%)
Majority: 1851 (5.26%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16167 (48.7%)
Conservative: 10286 (31%)
Liberal Democrat: 5039 (15.2%)
Other: 1680 (5.1%)
Majority: 5882 (17.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11453 (29.9%)
Labour: 19375 (50.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5552 (14.5%)
BNP: 1113 (2.9%)
UKIP: 849 (2.2%)
Majority: 7922 (20.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12798 (33%)
Labour: 21060 (54.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4115 (10.6%)
UKIP: 819 (2.1%)
Majority: 8262 (21.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17666 (34.4%)
Labour: 29282 (57%)
Liberal Democrat: 4392 (8.6%)
Majority: 11616 (22.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Gordon Marsden(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Ron Bell (Conservative) Blackpool councillor since 2007.Gordon Marsden(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Doreen Holt (Liberal Democrat)Hamish Howitt (UKIP)Roy Goodwin (BNP)Sithu Tun (Integrity UK)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82121
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 21.6%
Over 60: 24.2%
Born outside UK: 3.4%
White: 98.4%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 78.5%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 9.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 39%
Owner-Occupied: 69.7%
Social Housing: 8.2% (Council: 6.4%, Housing Ass.: 1.8%)
Privately Rented: 19.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 21.9%
Lab maj 1,000
Lab Hold 2,350
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We have had many years of Labour Rule and a Labour Controlled council and during that time we have seen OUR town of Blackpool become a DUMP. Since the Tory’s took control of the council we have noted a vast improvement in the Town particularly the Promenade. For goodness sake let’s continue the improvement and support a LOCAl man in Blackpool South, Ron Bell.
Conservative majority 258
Surely if the tories win here then they would be home and dry in terms of an overall majority? The key for me is that if the Lib Dems take an extra 3000 votes then Labour could lose here
Ron Bell represents Talbot Ward (with the town centre and Blackpool Tower).
It was one of the 4 North wards transferred to South in 1997 and is one of the 2 of these 4 wards which will not be reunited with North.
There was a sea change at the last council elections showing that Blackpool had returned to its working class Tory voting traditions.
Obviously this seat has been subject to substantial demographic change (more voters dependent on public sector jobs, more boarding houses becoming bedsits) – but its effect has only prevented this from ever becoming a safe Tory seat again, not a bell weather seat.
The swing from Lab to Con will be well above the notional average.
Posts such as Alec’s and On The Fence’s don’t add to our knowledge at all. Let’s keep the partisan stuff out of it shall we.
Conservative – 39%
Labour – 37%
Lib Dem – 20%
Sorry Barnaby!
No need to apologize.
I’m sticking to LAB HOLD here.
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Well, Gordon held on by 1.5K
Since 1885 which seats have included present-day Talbot, Waterloo, and Marton wards?
Pretty sure it’s Blackpool –> Blackpool South, Harry.
This, and Preston, sure do look rather lonely islands of red in a sea of Lancastrian Blue…..
May be down to just Preston next time Doktorb. We were so close here…so close.
Who knows how new (enlarged) boundaries will affect this area once we have introduced fair boundaries.
By “we” you mean both of us, now, of course Shaun
And going off this year’s council results, an enlarged Preston may well go blue too….
Talbot ward includes the Tower and Waterloo ward includes the Pleasure Beach. Both wards are in this constituency and not in North.
Talbot was in Blackpool North before 1997
What were the wards of this constituency from 1945 to 1997?
Cllr Doreen Holt the candidate three times possible 4 times for the Lib Dems in Blackpool South died Sat 15 Jan 2011.
She was a Conservative Cllr many years ago. But won three times as a Lib Dem.
I was Lib Dem candidate Blackpool North 2001 and 2005
Labour Council leader Simon Blackburn could be in trouble in his Brunswick seat here this May after referring to Blackpool FC fans as “donkey botherers” during Saturday’s game.
The Council is Conservative of course – must be Labour Group Leader.
Marsden polled 14,449 votes in 2010 and won.
Marsden polled 18,213 votes in 1992 and lost.
So what?
H – It shows how low the Tory vote is ie below ’97 levels.
When you consider the partition of Blackpool, Labour are more weighted in the South of the town.
Blackpool North (Con 14, Lab 4 – Blackpool Wards Only)
Blackpool South (Con 13, Lab 8, Lib Dem 3)
If you redivide the town as follows -
Blackpool Coastal (Con 20, Lab 4 and Lib Dem 3)
(all Blackpool Wards except those mentioned below)
Blackpool Hinterland & Cleveleys (Lab 8 and Con 8 – Blackpool Wards Only)
(Greenlands, Clifton, Park, Layton, Park, Marton, Hawes Side, Brunswick, Victoria)
……you would get a Blackpool Coastal that was more Tory than North & Cleveleys, and a Hinterland & Cleveleys that was better for Labour than the current South.
Yes but why would you want to do that anyway?
After the terribly named ‘York Outer’ I do hope we are not going to get any ‘Hinterland’ in a constituency seat!
Blackpool Coastal is a ridiculous name.
All of Blackpool is what I would define as being on the coast and is famous for being so.
I don’t see why a long, thin coastal strip of a seat would make any sense just because it put all the beaches in one seat.
Hinterland is an even more stupid name.
I quite like that ‘Blackpool Hinterland’
The issue I’d take with Peter here is that while it may well be that the block of wards in the South is overall more Labour than that in the north, or that that on the coast is more so than that in the hinterland, the numbers of councillors from each representing the respective areas at a particular moment in time is not in itself evidence of this.
For example in Blackpool Coastal (Con 20, Lab 4 and Lib Dem 3), all the Tory seats could have been won with extremely small majorities while the Labour wards could be ultra-safe while conversely in Blackpool Hinterland & Cleveleys (Lab 8 and Con 8 – Blackpool Wards Only), the Conservative seats could all be ultra-safe and the Labour ward very marginal. It is perfectly possible that on the configuration presented, the Conservatives could have had a bigger lead in the popular vote in the Hinterland than in the Coastal section (again not saying this is so, but just as a general principle)
Of course, the Tories did well in Lancashire last time – but given the likely loss of LibDem support, it would be just as easy to see boundary changes actually favouring Labour given that the Tories do tend to pile up votes in the places where they need them least
Does Gordon Marsden have a personal vote?
Were he to retire in 2015 would the seat swing relatively to the Tories compaired to the UK – IE Con Gain from Lab in the event of no swing between the two major parties nationwide.
I don’t think he has as large a personal vote as all that Peter. The swing here was still rather above the national average and in line with other Lancs seats where a Labour incumbent didn’t stand for re-election such as Lancaster & Fleetwood. There would be a slight boost for the Conservatives if he retires but I wouldn’t expect it to be huge.
Blackpool is another major Labour target. The council is Conservative-controlled with 27 seats to Labour’s 12 & the LDs’ 3. No wards currently have more than 2 members. Labour will look to gain 2 seats in Tyldesley, Talbot, Greenfields, Layton and Anchorsholme (where they start in 3rd) and one in Clifton & in Ingthorpe from the Tories, and a seat in Bloomfield from the LDs whose councillor Doreen Holt died earlier this year. Even if Anchorsholme is not gained, the other gains would be sufficient for Labour to gain control. Another somewhat more difficult but certainly possible gain is the 2 Tory seats in Waterloo. Some of the above wards were quite habitually Labour until the 2007 elections. Although the Tories have a decent majority in the council chamber at the moment, there are enough marginals for it to be LAB GAIN FROM C this year in my opinion.
Bispham, Norbreck and Warbeck are strong Conservative areas but there were a large number of marginals that fell that have voted Labour for several elections prior to 2007.
2015
Blackpool North
*Paul Maynard (Con) 19818
*Gordon Marsden (Lab) 19698
Notional Con Gain from Lab
Blackpool South, Lytham & St Anns
*Mark Menzies (Con) 23242
*Simon Blackburn (Lab) 17161
Notional Con Hold
My word that’s a lot of supposition. Mildly interesting but I think I’d like to see what the exact seats are before I even think about predicting stuff!
I think it would possibly make the most sense to recreate Blackpool N and Fleetwood and maybe rejig Blackpool South a bit. It might only need to take in St Leonards and/or Kilnhouse wards from Fylde district to add up.
The logic of including Fleetwood with Blackpool instead of Lytham & St Anns for Westminster purposes was that the trams go to Fleetwood while the stop at Star Gate just beyond The Pleasure Beach.
Have there ever been any plans to extend the trams to Lytham & St Anns or even further?
What is interesting about the two Blackpool constituencies is that in North the coastal part is traditional more Tory than the inland areas.
The case is opposite with Blackpool South with a greater concentration of Labour support on the coast and Tory support inland.
While its true to say that the North Shore is more upmarket than the Golden Mile, the area round Blackpool Zoo is much more Conservative than the Grange council estate in Blackpool North.
Waterloo and Squires Gate are coastal but heavily outvoted by the wards in Blackpool South than are further North.
I also think that there may now be a large middle class public sector vote living in wards like Bispham and Stanley (who work in Blackpool and as far a field as Preston), that make these areas better now for Labour.
Where Brighton became established as London by the sea, to what extend has Blackpool also become Manchester by the sea?
Its interesting that Gordon Marsden lives in Brighton and commutes to the Commons. He was regarded as an Expenses Saint with his humbel constituency home being the flat above the Blackpool South Labour Party office.
Blackpool South is extending to include Clairemont, Layton and Warbreck not Layton and Park (which it had between 1997 – 2010).
Politically it will not make a huge difference by geographically South will now extend halfway up the North Shore.
The Guardian projects that Labours majority here is reduced from 1851 to 1351 (much more in real terms given a larger electorate).
While many of the Guardians projections are questionable I would feel that Warbreck (a safe Tory ward on the North Shore) would out vote Layton (a Labour marginal gained in May) by around 500 votes so this notional result appears consistent.
2 key marginals in Blackpool in 2015.
Blackpool South would therefore be one of the seats that the Conservatives would seek to win in order to win with a working overall majority – just as Blackpool North & Fleetwood will be a seat Labour need to form even a government.
just as Blackpool North & Fleetwood will be a seat Labour need to form even a government.
should read
just as Blackpool North & Fleetwood will be a seat Labour need to form even a minority government.
“While many of the Guardians projections are questionable”
None of the Guardian projections are ‘questionable’. They are all by definition completely meaningless and irrelevent. It is better to have no projections than to have ones calculated in the way that they have done. It may that by accident one or two of their projections may come close to the truth. That will happen in a few cases where an area moving into a constituency has voted along exactly the same lines as the constituency it is moving from
Yes…the Guardian logic would have meant that the revised Edinburgh Central would have been a notional Tory marginal in 1997 given it was gaining tow wards from the Conservative seat of Edinburgh West and losing two wards to Leith.
In actual fact it was gaining two Labour wards in Edinburgh West (Stenhouse and Moat) and losing two Tory inclined wards (New Town and Stockbridge).
at most extreme it is the logic that would say Belfast North would be a SF seat because its gaining parts of Belfast West (despite the fact it is gaining ultra-strong Unionist areas from that seat). Another somwhat extreme example is Paddington which is Conservative on the Guardian analysis as it gains a chunk of Kensington – yet the area gained is the safe Labour far north of that seat. Not all of their notionals will be as skewed as some of these, but when a methodolgy is as flawed as that its basically a waste of time using it anywhere.
The Tower (which opened in 1894) and the Winter Gardens (which opened in 1878) have been in
Lancashire North 1832-85 (two-seat constituency)
Blackpool 1885-1945
Blackpool North 1945-97
Blackpool South 1997-present.